Petro Matad Share Discussion Threads

[gunsofmarscapone] 17/9/2019 23:46

Taking it to another derivative at a future point in history all liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons extracted for energy transfer purposes will be almost valueless. The tiny volumes of oil and gas that we will need in fifty years will be obtained at miniscule cost from the very cheapest of sources.

G boy weather and climate are highly relevant in this location, boring as it is: think yourself lucky, I provided totally free consultancy for you last year and hey presto, the company actually reacted to it hoho.

[grannyboy] 17/9/2019 23:37

Think GOM is getting his oil recovery and production data confused with his weather data ...and comes up with a dry front followed by a gusty wind..

[pro_s2009] 17/9/2019 23:31

GoM

The company are already saying Pmean figure RECOVERABLE of 25 MMBO. Upside is to 42 MMBO RECOVERABLE if things are better than expected.

Do you understand what a recoverable figure is.

Now yes, the final recoverable figure maybe less or more......depends on future drilling results. If the reservoir gets even better to the south and west a final recoverable figure in a few years time may be 60 MMBO....who knows.

At this juncture they can only make estimates and the company is valued on those estimates based on current data.

The SOCO results from the same area have been given - MATD results are far better than those SOCO results generally, and the SOCO wells which were worse than Heron-1 went on to commercial production.

You are trying to argue against the facts here........nice try, but it will not wash.

[gunsofmarscapone] 17/9/2019 23:18

Not at all, in every plan to drain the contents of a reservoir a complex equation exists and in all projects there is a critical yet variable inflexion point in whether commercial or not. To produce a valuation for example of an Orinoco heavy crude reserve, well designs, numbers of and cost of diluent import crude are just the start points.

Accuracy or reserves valuations can only be achieved if both lifting and transport costs are calculated. To further contend your point there is a form of relativism at play here: a valuation of a reserve may at one reference date be correct yet when set against competing geographies and technologies such a valuation can be technical only and in reality such discoveries can become economically stranded. There are some very good studies out there.

Fwiw total well costs ie <4 mil are published for a reason.

[pro_s2009] 17/9/2019 23:09

I3E - they need a good drill result for the 2nd well.

Will recover if they do and will collapse further if not. Need to avoid getting too heavy in I3E at the moment, ideal to buy in after 2nd well failure as would be excellent price for 3rd well.

So remain not too exposed, reduce if necessary. Await 2nd well good news to rerate current holding, or buy more on any 2nd well bad news as it will be cheap then for a high impact Serendipity exploration well.

[matunde24] 17/9/2019 23:05

Whats your view on i3e

[pro_s2009] 17/9/2019 23:04

GoM no.......the most important factor is how much recoverable oil there is and how much of it you own.

That is the value.

How fast you can get it out is only about the cash flow. The value is the value.

100 pounds is 100 pounds, regardless of whether you spend 50 pounds for 2 days or 1 pound for 100 days.


PetroChina will farm in I am sure, they will drill a whole load of wells in Heron for their 50% farm in and MATD will end up with between net 5,000bopd to 10,000bopd depending on how good the reservoir gets the further south and crestal on the structure.

The flow rate testing to come will help define size and also how many wells needed. Good flow rates - ahead of expectation - the very much better everything looks.

50 bopd and above is commercial after fracking.
200 bopd is expectation after fracking.

Heron-1 achieves ?????? We will know soon.

[gunsofmarscapone] 17/9/2019 22:56

Pro, you posted ‘Oil valuations are all about the amount of oil you have in it....and how much of it you own’. I have to disagree, there are multiple complex factors in addition to that: one of THE most important is deliverability and decay metrics. 2Solaris is correct in his appraisal.

I guess the reality is that although Matad could have been a solid, conservative, even slightly boring producer it’s aim is/was to strike it lucky, so far with zero success. Providence is very similar, their investor group has an appetite for risk and enjoy exploration. Still its not game over yet for the season, spudding the first well in the fourth week of July along with permit issues further along the line have created yet another time squeeze. Last year it was visa documentation problems.

Nevertheless MB and the team have done very well in operating safely in an extraordinarily challenging onshore location.

[pro_s2009] 17/9/2019 22:48

It was not a poor chance of success, just lower than the other two in the North. Red Deer was exploration, the two in the North are akin to appraisal.

Red Deer-1 now gives them data with which to use to further evaluate Block XX. They found thick good quality reservoir, which confirms that reservoir gets better the further south and west you go from Block X1X operated by Petro China. Source rock is immature, so now they process that into the data and potentially drill further north of Red Deer but south of Heron for the next exploratory one in Block XX.

They pretty much 99% have one producer now with Heron-1 (awaiting testing). They also have funds to get this into production but I am quite certain we will see a farm out with PetroChina where PC farm in for 50% and drill a load of development wells. Perfect for PC and perfect for MATD. PC get to farm into Heron and better utilise their infrastructure and MATD get a free ride to significant production.

Gazelle should be another oil strike, so again, PC farm in to develop is most likely.

The way forward is very clear......and given Heron may be 40 MMBO recoverable, its very very valuable. NPV10 of 40 MMBO recoverable under this PSC is worth around 32p a share to MATD. Farm that out for free carry to development and you have value of 16p a share coming out.

Plenty of upside to come for MATD.

[backinblack80] 17/9/2019 21:18

If Red Deer had such a poor chance of success, why did they choose to do it before Heron. Surely, after their previous track record they should concentrate on likely successes and get at least one producer under their belt before playing the wild cards?

[big brother8] 17/9/2019 18:49

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SOME BATTLES ARE LOST, BUT NEVER LOSE THE WAR.

NO SURRENDERING, NO WHITE FLAGS, NO PRISONERS.

[big brother8] 17/9/2019 18:32

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POOR GUY, HAS TO TELL HIS WIFE, HE LOST HIS KIDS UNI TUITION FEES FUND ON THIS WILD PUNT SCAM.


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[mb_2] 17/9/2019 18:08

Sp held up well after a shaky start. Congrats to those who managed to top up early doors. Lots of upside I think from these levels. Roll on Heron flow testing....