Petro Matad Share Discussion Threads

[gunsofmarscapone] 23/9/2018 14:18

There is little flex for contingencies Pro, even if on your optimistic schedule.

Thats only a quarter of a post.

[pro_s2009] 23/9/2018 12:17

P&A has been completed, 3 days to get the rig down (Fri/Sat/Sun) so should start the move Tuesday latest. (Hopefully tomorrow)

5 days to get there. (Hopefully 3)

Rig up. H&S.

Spud Monday 8th October ? Hopefully before then.

Well finished by 2nd November ? (Hopefully end October).


450kms at 12 hours driving per day = say 10 miles per hour average speed = 3 days)

[neo26] 23/9/2018 12:05

How long will it take to mobilise the rig to WH, its rough terrain.Times running out winter coming

[pro_s2009] 23/9/2018 08:36

Block V was in breach of the license terms......the money spent so far was not to the level required to keep the PSC.

After SL-1, the money spent on Block V is now in excess of the minimum required spend, the PSC is now no longer in breach.

In the basin that SL-1 was drilled, there has been no other drilling, its important to get your first well into a new basin to give you the data to work out how systems are working there.

SL-1 tested numerous play types (thats why so many primary and secondary targets in the well) and will give an abundance of data to MATD for the future.

BG were highly interested in SL (in the same way that Royal Dutch Shell are highly interested in Wild Horse).

There are a whole load of reasons to drill SL-1, however the fact remains that there was nothing highlighted as positive about it. It was never mentioned in the early drilling plans (which were WH-1 and then Falcon-1 and then 2 Block XX). It was the later entrant when it became SL-1 then WH-1 then Fox-1 and 3 Block XX) - this being after the new 3D ruled out Falcon-1 as a target worth drilling.

Fox-1 has 4 pages of info about all the positives........

Wild Horse-1 has bright amplitudes and is close to a large kitchen and therefore has a simple migration patch. 4 day dip with simple migration path is one of the most exciting and productive play types. Back in the day part of finding new targets was all about studying to find 4 day dips.

Thats why I say in hindsight, looking back, it looks like SL-1 was just a fill in drill for the missing Falcon-1 - giving them lots of new data which is desirable, filling the void in spend on Block V so as to keep the PSC from falling into breach, but at the same time filling in the gap while waiting for WH-1 chemical use permitting to complete, which is just has.

[john henry] 23/9/2018 08:18

Pro_S if the company were not particularly excited by SL why did they drill ?

You dont drill just for drillings sake, Funds wasted.

[pro_s2009] 23/9/2018 03:32

gus, one day maybe, or maybe they just used the AIM to start the process and now all the actual profits when the system worls will be in private hands ?


Short video in the link below from March this year where Mike says that Wild Horse-1 will be 25 days to TD according to Sinopec.






Sinopec estimated 70 days to TD for SL-1 and they got that pretty spot on, so expect WH-1 to be at TD 25 days from spud with a few days more for logging etc...

The video also reaffirms that at the time they were drilling their best prospect first (Wild Horse-1) and then were going to move the rig to drill Falcon-1 their next best prospect. As we know, Falcon-1 was downgraded following 3D and removed and so it came to be that SL-1 was put in at the start because final permitting for Wild Horse-1 did not appear to come through until August, while SL-1 was still drilling. However, SL-1 was never part of the original plans...... and it remains the fact that (excluding Fox-1 as this is being permitted now for 2019) of all their targets for 2018.......Wild Horse-1 was considered the best by MATD - it is also the well that Royal Dutch Shell asked MATD to ensure they drill.

[gus 3000] 22/9/2018 19:25

PRO i quite liked old MOIL you know,Madagascar is full of thick gooey bitumin grade oil.Canadians have a load of the stuff also but get it out of the ground with steam.

If they ever get it right,they will be worth a few bob,private holding now i think only but they will be back one day i reckon......

[pro_s2009] 22/9/2018 17:13

SBB.........on a strike it should be over 100p.......the actual worth of the strike is probably well over 300p after appraisal, and add on all the derisking of other prospects........worth 100p on a strike.

[sunnybeachboy] 22/9/2018 16:20

W horse the biggest drill on aim this year someone mentioned could be the biggest drill on aim ever!

If it comes in your talking bags and bags. I will hold 1 million shares for the results.

Current price 6p
If we see a strike
We could see any of those share prices below. 12p,18p,24p,30p36p,42p or 48p.

480m barrels in the ground price is 7$/£5.27 a barrel. But the market won't give us that. I'm going for +40p added to share price at the time of the strike. It's huge.

Tick tock to October people and the 30 day drill.

[pro_s2009] 22/9/2018 13:35

cash. Below pic are the Soft amplitude anomalies at Wild Horse-1.





.

[pro_s2009] 22/9/2018 04:32

Well I do hope that there will be Wild Horse-1 activity this year, else the whole episode of drilling Snow Leopard-1 was a waste of time.

If you put your hindsight goggles on and go backwards now based on what is now known :

The plan was to drill Wild Horse-1 first, then Falcon-1 (as of early 2018 presentations).

Wild Horse-1 (Block IV) has only just(during SL-1 drilling it seems) received its final permits (chemical use) and so could not have been drilled until now anyway.

Falcon-1 (Block V) the 2nd planned well earlier this year was downgraded based on new 3D and removed.

Snow Leopard-1 (Block V) was the only drill ready prospect and which was the first to get all permits in place. MATD are also short of the required spend level of the license of Block V. It was rushed in as the replacement for Falcon-1

I would imagine Mike and his team were between a rock and a hard place here. Fox-1 the new exciting prospect from the new 3D is not drill ready and not permitted, permitting ongoing. Wild Horse-1 which was always your first drill, is not ready as final permits (chemical use etc..) are not in place. Falcon-1 which was your 2nd drill in the schedule is suddenly not worth drilling (too small) compared for Fox-1 so cannot be moved to be 1st.

You either cancel your 2018 drilling schedule (going down like a lead balloon)to allow Wild Horse-1 and Fox-1 back to back in 2019 or you put Snow Leopard-1 into play and drill that while you try to get the final permits for Wild Horse-1 to allow a seamless move from SL-1 to WH-1 in 2018 and go to the local temple to pray you get the Wild Horse-1 final permits before SL-1 finishes drilling.

If I go back now - with knowledge today - you really can see why the 2nd fund raise happened and why it was at 10p (compared to the earlier one at 6.5p - thats all down to Fox-1).

Looking at the prospects - Wild Horse-1 has simple faulting, its a 4 way dip (dome) and has soft amplitude anomalies. Pretty good target. Always was the 1st one they wanted to drill.

Snow Leopard-1 has complex faulting and therefore high sealing risk. In all the presentations after removing Falcon-1 there is nothing much exciting said about SL-1. Look yourselves....its as if someone writes the slide saying, yeah, we got this one too.

Fox-1 - extremely exciting, they spend 4 pages of their latest presentation detailing Fox-1. 3 way dip, normal faulting, bright spot on 3D, live oil shows in coring etc.. etc.. etc...

I feel the only reason they drilled SL-1 was to actually put the 2018 drilling into play and to bide time to get the WH-1 permits complete so they could drill WH-1, whilst also ensuring the spend on Block V was up to the level needed so as not to have any issues with Fox-1 which is also in Block V. And yes, in hindsight now I would say SL-1 was a strati-graphic test well in effect, one which also raised the spend level on Block V to the level required for compliance with the license. It had a (very limited) chance to strike oil and didn't and no surprise there.

Had I known prior that WH-1 was still waiting for final permits I might have put two and two together prior to events, but I didnt, and anyway, its far easier in hindsight, everyone is an expert after the event, as always :)

I dont blame Mike and his team for doing it this way if that is what happened, it makes sense in hindsight, just you started drilling with perhaps what was "off record internally" your worst prospect.

So in summary, my view, SL-1 was just a license spend compliance, waiting for WH-1 final permits, mobilize the rig and get in in the area ready for WH-1, fill in for the downgraded Falcon-1, in effect strati-graphic test well. And in view of that - I really cannot see them not spudding Wild Horse-1 asap, its a must and IMO, it WILL happen very soon.

All IMO, just my thoughts.

[pro_s2009] 22/9/2018 04:31

Spangle, I certainly would not ban GoM or anyone who has constructive negative views. Thats all very welcome.

Having been using ADVFN for a very long time I do know there are a few around who have multiple user names and I know how to follow their names on other boards, find the group of names and ban them. I have picked up a few haters given my past calling of LRL and MOIL down (perfect calls by me, both were ramped to the high heavens and I called them down, and down they went to extinction). For that I get my own personal hate followers now - they are cute though :). I take that as a badge of honor, if you have not managed to upset a few people then you have not really cut your teeth yet on bulletin boards.

[spangle93] 22/9/2018 00:54

"I will allow myself two or three more posts and then desist until next year"

On the basis that you don't think there'll be Wild Horse activity to talk about until then, right :p

[gunsofmarscapone] 22/9/2018 00:44

Yes I know spangle, my greyhound racing analogy was not only an over simplification but hinting at a root cause of such punting.

I will allow myself two or three more posts and then desist until next year.

[spangle93] 21/9/2018 22:25

GoM - please continue to post. You make good points, and there's nothing worse than a BB full of a back-slapping in-crowd (not that I was thinking MATD is that, but some boards don't tolerate genuine discussion).

I was told by a petroleum geologist MD of another AIM company that the rule of thumb is that money wouldn't be spent on exploration wells unless the GCOS is better than 1 in 8. So I see 9% and think meh - either they are being conservative with their published figure or they have gambling backers. They'd be better off calling it a stratigraphic test well if their expectation is 1 in 11.

It's not truly a greyhound race analogy though. First, it last longer than 40 seconds - hope takes a lot longer to dash in E&P than on the track ;-) And second, you don't lose all your money; the share price isn't zero now even if you were to sell. Importantly, as it's unlikely they'll raise between now and the result of WH-1, if you hold you've still got the same stake in the next race.

[gunsofmarscapone] 21/9/2018 21:30

Evening Pro.

The figure to use is the company’s own GCOS calculation. 9% is perfectly rational given the lack of amplitude correlation available given that these are independent and initial exploration wells.

There is no need to wait for a month, better odds are freely available at any greyhound racing track.

[on target] 21/9/2018 19:27

Get ready to run for the hills shorters, this will rise from here.

[s1zematters] 21/9/2018 17:37

Just to reiterate the quality of that paid for by MATD Edison 'research' note panicky issued yesterday. dated 2oth September 2018

"Petro Matad is a pureplay Mongolian exploration company with a 100% equity interest in Blocks IV, V and XX. Management plans to drill four exploration wells in 2018"

4 ???? actually, they have at best 2!!!!!!


The report also tells us that 75% of shares are in the free float! Really?
But according to a MTAD rns in July the combined shareholdings of the Petrovis Group (being Petrovis, its underlying shareholders and their family members) is 195,849,199 Shares, representing 29.6 percent. of the Company's issued share capital making 75% free float impossible!


Then for reasons I will leave to your own judgment, they (Edison) use a cash in hand figure of $38 million. That is 9 months out of date and does not include the snow leopard drilling costs and company admin over the last 9 months.
The figure they employ is from 31st December 2017, then they simply add the placing money on top.
This obviously flatters the real cash in hand figure that the company themselves issued just a 13 days ago, it's $29 million,
Why is a 'researcher' not able to research just 13 days back from a company RNS??

What it does highlight, unintentionally is that MATD has spent so far on the 2018 drilling campaign $9 million to get to the stage of drilling just one target!
They have $29 million left, so the belt or the timings will need tightening to get that away without further funding
aimho

[s1zematters] 21/9/2018 17:29

thks bit you have a great weekend m8 ;)

Another factor that is not talked about on the ramp thread is the probability of any find being shale gas.
(From memory)I believe a study was carried out and samples sent many years ago and shale gas was found to be active in parts of Mongolia central blocks.
Obviously with existing boreholes and infrastructure in the USA, recovering shale gas isn't a problem, however, at the drilling depths in Mongolia along with the aforementioned factors and climate/ terrain, it would be very hard to actually value any shale gas discovery! Indeed would it even be seriously economically viable proposition?