Pensionbee Share Discussion Threads

[paleje] 20/1/2023 08:07

Nobody seems interested. Too boring perhaps:) Building nicely imo, brand name recognition established, increasing market share, profit not far away. Good summary from ED, thanks edmonda.

[edmonda] 20/1/2023 07:49

New research note link post year end trading update:

PensionBee’s trading update covering FY22 (to 31 Dec 22) shows continuing strong growth, despite large market falls during the period, and continuing market share gains. Invested customers grew 56% y-o-y to 183k (31 Dec 21: 117k), while AUA grew 17% to £3.03bn (31 Dec 21: £2.59bn) with net inflows of +£863m and market movements of -£424m. Net inflows were particularly impressive, with PensionBee’s net inflow rate far higher than incumbents, and the absolute size of its net inflows not far off the pension inflows of the largest incumbent platforms. Revenue increased 38% y-o-y to c£18m (FY21: £12.8m).

Adjusted EBITDA has started to ‘turn the corner’ towards profitability. In FY21 it was -£16.4m, in H1-22 -£14.9m and in H2-22 -£5m (FY22 -£19m). Management have reiterated confidence in achieving +ve adj. EBITDA on a full-year basis in FY24, the target set at the time of PensionBee’s IPO (Apr 21). Further evidence of operating leverage has been reported with the number of invested customers per staff member increasing 31% (970 vs. 743).

Our top-line forecasts have been revised downwards in line with FY22 actuals and reduced marketing spend guidance, but this is offset to a degree by reduced cost guidance - our fundamental valuation reduces slightly from 160p to 150p.

[edmonda] 20/10/2022 13:50

Q3 client growth impressed with invested customers up 9% in the quarter and 68% y-o-y. On updated forecasts our fair value reduces slightly to 160p per share, still materially above current levels.

Read new research note/hear summary below:

[edmonda] 26/9/2022 08:38

New detailed research report post H1 results (Equity Development), full link here:

"Guidance re-iterated, positive adj. EBITDA by end-23"

Brief summary of report: PensionBee’s H1-22 results confirm the momentum of its growth journey as it continues to disrupt the pensions market and drive the consolidation of UK consumers’ multiple pension pots. Its most fundamental growth driver, the number of invested customers1, grew 72% y-o-y to 159k on 30 Jun 22 from 92k on 30 Jun 21 (+36% over H1 from 117k on 31 Dec 21) and remains on track to meet our forecast of 200k by the end of FY22. Impressive marketing agility was evident. The data platform was used to rapidly refine targeting towards a younger audience, with older consumers less likely to take decisions during the market volatility during H1.

[wall street trader] 16/8/2022 11:38

think my chart is stuck lol

[wall street trader] 09/8/2022 09:54

My chart says rebound to a quid from here

[bg23] 26/7/2022 13:40

Unfortunately, I think its a poor product aimed at the 'low hanging fruit' type of client.

it has an appeal but will never be more than a tiny part of a large consolidating market. I'd be surprised if it remains independent for more than a single economic cycle, but I certainly wouldn't be a buyer on the hope that it gets bought out.

overhyped at listing, unlikely to ever reach maturity in its own right

i'd avoid.

[edmonda] 21/7/2022 06:58

#PBEE PensionBee has continued to grow its customer base in line with targets, with a 72% annual increase in invested customers1 to 159k on 30 Jun 22 from 92k on 30 Jun 21 (+36% over H1-22 from 117k on 31 Dec 21). It remains on track to meet our forecast of 200k by the end of FY22. Registered customers2 (a ‘top of sales funnel’ metric) grew 66% y-o-y from 538k on 30 Jun 21 to 897k (+36% over H1 from 658k on 31 Dec 21). The rate of customer growth is evidence that the post-IPO ramp-up in marketing spend is having the planned ‘scale-up’ impact.

While PensionBee has certainly met our growth forecasts in terms of customer numbers, market falls have pegged back AUA growth, and we have reduced our AUA, revenue and profit growth forecasts accordingly, and will refine these, and our longer-term forecasts with H1-22 results on 22 Sep 22.

Our AUA forecast for end-FY22 reduces to £3.6bn (from previous forecast of £4.3bn but +39% over FY21); revenue forecast for FY22 reduces to £18.8m (from £21.1m but +47% over FY21, with PensionBee guiding for revenue to be in the range of £17-£20m); and our adjusted EBITDA forecast reduces to -£20.9m (from -£16.4m, with PensionBee still guiding positive adj. EBITDA by FY24). In turn, our fundamental value adjusts to 200p per share from 230p.

[edmonda] 21/4/2022 06:21

In Q1 of FY22, PensionBee has reported an 18% quarterly increase in invested customers from 117k on 31 Dec 21 to 138k on 31 Mar 22, a y-o-y growth rate of 70% (31 Mar 21: 81k), and is on track to meet our forecast of 200k+ by the end of FY22 (f’cast annual growth 73%). Importantly, ‘registered customers’ (a ‘top of sales funnel’ metric) jumped by 141k from 658k on 31 Dec 21 to 799k, an increase far in excess of the previous quarter (+56k Oct-Dec 21).

PensionBee has reiterated its confidence in achieving its previous revenue guidance of £20m+ for FY22, as well as its medium-term guidance. It appears on-track to meet our previous forecasts and we maintain our fundamental value of 230p per share, over 60% above the current share price.

[edwardt] 29/11/2021 17:12

got to think lock down meant a lot of people sorted their pension admin out. now the hard graft starts finding new biz.

[edwardt] 29/9/2021 15:00

love the model but the valuation makes nutmeg look cheap.

[mysteronz] 18/7/2021 13:34

Some really positive reviews and plenty of them on trustpilot bodes well for AUM growth. Amazing how much a few pension pots, plus market growth and top ups will do to a scalable platform.

Many saying they are recommending to friends and family - add that to marketing then its a good combination!

[mysteronz] 26/6/2021 20:35

I would imagine those adverts are very cheap for that exact reason