Pensana Share Discussion Threads

[mwj1959] 30/11/2022 17:58

Anyone have any thoughts about PA's shareholding discrepancy between the Annual Report and the latest presentation. I'm going to raise the Q tomorrow at the AGM. Hopefully a straightforward explanation and that I've missed something. And I would say that nothing surrounding this has any inference that there has been anything untoward. There just appears to be a discrepancy that I would like to be cleared up / clarified.

[oapknob1] 30/11/2022 15:08

It's not like giving an interview, spiking the share price and the rise being sold

[cyberbub] 30/11/2022 14:01

It's one thing to say that broker rumours might have been leaking, that's always possible, but alleging that the Chairman has been leaking or insider trading is something else entirely.

[mwj1959] 30/11/2022 12:28

Well Liberum will having done a lot of client marketing around their initiation piece and they must be involved in any equity raise.

[cyberbub] 30/11/2022 12:27

I suggest being careful about allegations about directors committing crimes, on a public BB. Posters have been sued in the past.

[mhssh] 30/11/2022 11:57

Yup, perfectly possible.

[oapknob1] 30/11/2022 11:20

Leak or PA giving insiders advance warning?

[mwj1959] 30/11/2022 10:16

In context the share price is just back to where it was a couple of months ago, but agree that the signal from it is hardly optimistic / signals confidence in the project given that was close to the lowest level for a couple of years. Let's see what PA comes up with tomorrow. As we all know it is ultimately about funding. But I'm concerned from a regulatory perspective as to whether he'll be able to provide the sort of detail we all want. So it may well be that we just get a holding statement. At least by attending I'll get the feel for the body language.
Anyone else intending to go to the AGM?

[mhssh] 30/11/2022 09:45

Maybe a leak that PA is coming up with something negative tomorrow.

[oapknob1] 30/11/2022 09:33

Why the drop?

[chinasyndrome] 30/11/2022 06:45

I have always thought that 500m would be a nice round number, It still puts PRE at a fraction of LYC who still have to raise money for their Refinery.

[cyberbub] 29/11/2022 23:24

Absolutely rvsy, I'm not worried.Bear in mind that the $75M equity is for Saltend only, another similar amount is needed for Longonjo I believe.Personally I'm conservatively assuming an 'equivalent' of 500M shares in issue, I have no problem with that, I see the share price hitting 500p plus even then, when in production, with some very nice divis for people who buy round here.Just my view of course, I have no crystal ball, DYOR etc

[rvsy2] 29/11/2022 22:00

cyberbub

I don't think you need worry about the effect of dilution if only US$ 75 m has to be raised by a placing of sorts. Based on data provided by the company the project should be robust enough so the dilution will have a minimal impact on the NPV.

[mhssh] 29/11/2022 17:10

I so agree, PA needs tieing down on the funding, but that is easier said than done. Hope I am proved wrong on Thursday. I am sure there will be dilution, just a question how much. Good luck.

[cyberbub] 29/11/2022 16:39

Thanks for going Mwj.A question on the funding would be good obviously, but just asking "where is it?" won't be useful, I think something more specific would be useful eg. "Can you confirm your statement in interviews that the key funders have already taken their investment decision, and that only completing the paperwork remains?" It would be good if you get the chance to ask a second question afterwards about why director remuneration is so high. Personally I agree and am tempted to vote against the remuneration policy - not that I expect my tiny shareholding to make a difference!BTW I've said this before, but I don't think PA intended to imply in that interview 6 weeks ago that there would be no dilution in the fundraising! There was $75m gap to be raised on top of the bonds, and he said they could complete that element "without having to run around the capital markets". I interpret this to mean that they won't have to go to a normal public placing, and will get the equity investment off-market from a "strategic" investor, and existing large investors. There must be some form of dilution, whether it's at the PRE level or at the project level it's still dilution!NAI

[oapknob1] 29/11/2022 15:42

Or ask "Where's the funding then?"

[mhssh] 29/11/2022 15:18

Before Christmas has to be the acid test, once we move into 2023 we're back, it would seem, to jam tomorrow. Let's see. Would be interesting to see if anyone raises the fact that ALK has been very strong as compared with Pensana. Any other chitchat will, of course, be very interesting to hear.

[mwj1959] 29/11/2022 12:13

Yes, that has to be at the forefront of any questioning, particularly the granular detail around it. I'm still struggling, like many, to see how the non-bond part of Saltend is going to be raised without equity dilution.

[mikethebike4] 29/11/2022 11:11

mwj

how about asking him

"if he is any more positive or negative from as previously mentioned, in achieving the finance he requires within his existing timescale"

[mwj1959] 29/11/2022 10:49

In relation to PA's shareholding I noticed that in the latest presentation published yesterday it states on p.2 that Directors and related parties own 3% of the shares. In the Annual Report PA (who I presume is classified here as a Director) is shown to own 13.428m shares. Other directors owned 2.25m shares. PA's holding alone is equivalent to 5.3% of the shares and combined with others that would be 6.2%. So, unless the presentation figure is wrong, directors have reduced their exposure. But there have been no announcements to this effect, so it must be the former, unless I'm missing something obvious. So more than happy to be put in my place here!
Nothing else of note in the presentation as far as I can see.
I'm intending to go to the AGM on Thursday, so if anyone has any Qs that they want me to ask let me know.

[mwj1959] 29/11/2022 09:37

Lewis - I think my point re ALK was that the share price went from around £1+ to over £3+ in relatively short order without any real game changing information (I don't regard the granting of (expected?) planning permission game changing. Financing clearly would be game changing, but I suspect that it still some way off.
Other than the (hopefully) benefits to the value of his 13m+ shares exposure to the share price what exactly is PA's incentivisation to get finance done by Q1? He has no outstanding share options as far as I can see from the 2022 Annual Report, so the only variable will be him meeting (unknown) KPIs linked to his potential 150% of salary bonus for the year. OK for most of us mere mortals a potential 150% on a near £300k salary is meaningful (and it's very (some would say far too) good money for a company that currently has no revenues forecast until 2025), but for PA, while it clearly would be nice to have, what really matters is what happens to the share price. If it goes back to say £1 he's nearly £7m richer (albeit unrealised).

[lewis winthorpe] 28/11/2022 15:33

Why does it look strange? 7 mill shares in issue and lowly mcap. Versus 240 mill shares in issue and 150 mill mcap.Only comparison Is the PA factor. He's heavily incentivised to get finance done by q1 next year. I suspect we still have a bit of a wait.Agm will be interesting. I wonder if we will see last year's presentation with different dates. 22 replaced with 23. Saltend construction start was supposed to be March 22. Planning is just in at present to build a bridge to power saltend.

[mwj1959] 28/11/2022 09:24

China - I completely agree that the ALK move relative to PRE does look a bit strange. Hence I've top-sliced exposure to ALK. However, 50% free float and tiny market cap mean that it doesn't take a lot of buying / selling to move the ALK share price substantially.

[cyberbub] 28/11/2022 08:40

Well fair enough, maybe it's a bit generic... The funding is still the main RNS we want obviously!

[oapknob1] 28/11/2022 08:20

Needs confirmation of funding. Still no news and a nothing RNS. All they are saying is we're recruiting and have security guards at one site, and we've given a talk about the other site and doing what we've already said we would be doing. Hardly price sensitive.