Pensana Share Discussion Threads

[robbiekeane] 04/6/2021 13:43

From 11 mins Tim George Pensana CEO getting involved.

[mumble1311] 04/6/2021 13:26

Hogwatch, £65,000,000 would be a hell of a result!! better than any equity raise, and far less dilution on any share issues......we could do with lots of that. the ATF will only refer to any UK operation. For funding purposes, the Angolan operation is completely arms length.

[hogwatch] 04/6/2021 11:50

Mumble - I looked into the ATF system and it's based on a number of EoI rounds (Expression of Interest) followed by a final HMG decision round.
Pensana applied in the Round 7 EOI competition and ATF announced the results from that on 19 Mar 21, with Pensana successfully "going forward" to the next full round.
Further EOI rounds are ongoing, at least up to Round 11 (maybe more), which closes on 16 Jun, results announced 23 Jul.
The most recent "Full" Round ie: the one which actually awards real ATF grant money was 3 Nov 2020. The dates for the next ATF Full Round haven't been announced as far as I can find. Even if they take place as soon as possible after Round 11, the actual awards wouldn't be announced until Sep 10th or thereabouts, at the earliest.
Assuming Pensana was successful, the best possible outcome is that ATF awards 50% of the UK capital cost - only £65M for Pensana.

[mumble1311] 04/6/2021 09:16

wiseacre: Not entirely convinced this would get past the current party Doctrine. Despite his demeanour, Churchill was a liberal, crossing the floor in 1904 from the Tory party. A significant grant from the ATF would achieve the same thing, without ceding any control to the government. I believe you are right in assuming that HMG have some responsibility for the delay in the placing, in as much, that until the size of the grant (if any) and the conditions attached are known, the size of placing or other financial instruments and their drawdown requirement cannot be determined.

[wiseacre] 04/6/2021 08:01

It is perhaps worth speculating that the delay in the anticipated placing is down to HhMG. We know that the Government sees the provision of rare earths as a strategic issue as it does the plant on Humberside.If they are farsighted they could like Churchill’s investment in the forerunner of BP in 1912 take a stake in the company. Atherley has good contacts. His former chairman at Leyshon went on to run the Civil Service. But such wheels turn slowly.

[chinasyndrome] 04/6/2021 07:48

It has just been pointed out to me that all Placements on the LSE are made at the preceding 1 month VWAP..

Which currently sits at around £1.40

It is called a Bear Trap.

[chinasyndrome] 04/6/2021 00:28

Your mouth may be on holiday now it has done the damage your Masters wanted,
But I don't believe that your Master is joining you, still dumping.

And it won't stop people from searching for you, one day somebody will turn you in.

[mumble1311] 03/6/2021 12:43

Does that mean you are shutting up, rather than putting up!!!

[hamiltonengineering] 03/6/2021 12:17

Some entertaining thoughts old China. Anyhow in order to keep you happy and to dispel your wild theories about shorts and manipulation I am going to go on holiday. I will not make any posts until and unless the share price reaches 85p. If you are right your peace is guaranteed indefinitely. If you are wrong and this project is confirmed to be totally unfinanceable I may be back sooner than you would like!

[mumble1311] 03/6/2021 10:54

The maximum they can get is 50%, which is extremely substantial. i think this £60+ million is unlikely, but i am sure that if approved, will be extremely material. the problem with this is that the required funding isn't know until the award is given, or the conditions of the award known. all causing delays to finalisation of the funding. the scope ad terms of the grants are all include din the attached link

[barefootballerina] 03/6/2021 10:02

The bleeding seems to have stopped?

[rvsy2] 03/6/2021 09:33

Scaramonga88
Thanks for clarifying my query re year end.

[scaramonga88] 03/6/2021 09:25

Hi RvsySorry it wasn't my post (lifted from elsewhere) but regards funding no it doesn't - if you re-read the Business Plan it provides a timetable. I expect a full update from the business with a timeline soon, however summary below:- ATF grant funding decision is not expected until the end of July/early August. I assume is around 50% of the cost for Saltend so until they get that news they can't finalise UK financing. - They also need to complete FEED before they can finalise finance for Angola, this again is not going to be finished until the summer. This is detailed engineering design which detailed and final BoQs and subsequent cost estimates can be drawn from, and takes some time for a complex mine unfortunately. -therefore the business expect all financing to be completed end of Q3 this year, with Saltend starting construction end of the year and Longonjo Q1 2022. This is in line with the business plan. In the meantime expect clearance and prep work to begin on both sites (Saltend already begun) Busy few months ahead!

[tricky20] 03/6/2021 08:15

rvsy2-this is definitely calander year end.

[rvsy2] 03/6/2021 08:00

scaramonga88

Thanks for your informative post following your telecon with PA.
I wonder if you could clarify one point - you reported that full funding is expected to be available by year end. Please confirm that refers to Pensana's year end which is end of June 2021 and not end of calendar year.

[mumble1311] 03/6/2021 07:16

Hamiltonengineering: Nobody needs to name a single investors, there are thousand of potential sources. Yourself as an investment banker know that with the right terms anything can be banked. The headline items in the business plan already indicate that potential returns can more than service any loans. The BP had to be vetted as realistic before being issued as an RNS. I, nor any other company would publish the full prospectus required for the funding, it would be distributed to Bonafide potential lenders only. This isnt strange, it is normal practice.

If lenders are willing to finance Nigerian marginal oil fields in a market with major security issues, with extreme price volatility and with likely downward pressure going forward (which they are), then plenty will be found for a commodity that will be on the right side of the supply/demand curve for many many years. A product that is considered to be a strategic liability that’s needs developing outside of the current monopolized supply and consequently has the support of the major developed countries government. Their are plenty of studies press releases to support this.

Take sovereign risk out of the equation and call it what it is, it is country risk. Sovereign risk is loans backed by the government. Longonjo is a standalone project, requiring its own ring fenced (non recourse as you point out) project finance, which is completely different. Country risk will probably have a slight premium on the interest rates available, but nothing that the BP cant easily cover and still give the expected returns

A banker only needs to satisfy supply, repayment and cash flow sides of the equation together with governance requirements . As regards Angolan Corporate governance, this has improved dramatically since Desantos left. With its huge natural resources Angola is considered extremely bankable. So its all down to the project.

This project will probably involve the establishment of at least 2 separate legal entities under PLC. One in UK for Saltend, one in Angola for Longonjo. Both entities will need their own financing arrangement, although interconnected by supply and offtake contracts to satisfy the various financial institutions that will need to be syndicated to provide the funding. I have no idea of how it will be done, but i do know that one potential source of funding will be Angolan local banks who will be falling over themselves to participate in a project with ASWF backing and guaranteed FX inflows.

I know one project that had 8 banks involved together with the syndicate leader and that was only for 28 million USD

Saltend will need a guaranteed long term supply contract, an offtake contract would be helpful, but i dont believe essential as long as it can be demonstrated that the product will be supplied at a competitive price. The BP suggests that it can. Again syndication of financing will almost definitely be required from multiple institutions (not just one), several of which have already been identified.

The above is all supposition, but would not be unusual in a project like this. They are done all the time. This is not a huge project. $450 million is significant but it isnt huge and is easily coverable. All the above agreements and contracts take time to frame and agree when their are multiple institutions and interconnected legal entities involved

I dont know who you are, but if you are an investment banker, you know all the above already. So what is your motive. You are being Called out now, so i suggest you put up or shut up.....

[chinasyndrome] 03/6/2021 00:15

YETi, Of course you don't own any shares, Your Masters do not deem you high enough up the food chain to confer such Bonus's on you ! you are just a lowly paid underling.

I am beginning to suspect that our Shorter has a much bigger target in mind than simply making a trading profit. If they were only after a profit, I would expect them to be buying back in by now and ramping the price back up to maximize their Profits.  Short traders make their profit out of Yo-yoing the SP, not by totally destroying it ?

I think there is a distinct possibility that YETi's Master actually thinks he can get control of the mine without having to make a take-over bid.  Either by spooking the existing share holders into selling enough shares for them to get a controlling interest.  Or If they can succeed to totally crash the share price ? they might be able to approach the Government with their own proposal to mine the deposit. 

Keep in mind that Fortress made an absolute fortune out of restructuring Mountain Pass, imagine what a similar 'Financier' could do with a mine that actually has a substantial Ore Reserve/Resource !

The only danger for them is: if there is a significant Company announcement or Shareholder / White night support that sends the share price back up and forces the them to buy back in before achieving their goals, commonly known as a "Bear Trap" .

[hamiltonengineering] 02/6/2021 17:28

Reloaded as in old China thinks my share price predictions are just lucky shotgun blasts. Definitely not reloaded as in buying Pensana shares!

[hamiltonengineering] 02/6/2021 17:27

Reloaded as in old China thinks my share price predictions are just lucky shotgun blasts. Definitely not reloaded as in buying Pensana shares!

[tricky20] 02/6/2021 16:21

Hamilton-your post 1157 on June 1st "Anyhow I have just reloaded and I now think we should be looking at 80/85p by the end of June."
Reloaded what exactly? Sounds distinctly like your short position to me.

[scaramonga88] 02/6/2021 15:30

Post from yesterday:"I had a brief conversation with PA today to clarify a few points:-On funding expect to have the full $425m in place by year end once all FEED work and logistical work is completed at Satend and Longonjo.-3 sources of capital 1.The ATF-expect decision here at end of July,but going well.2.Bond finance-engaged with several green financiers (no names given),also going well.3.Equity raise.-S&P CCC rating on Angola not a problem as all the bond guys have experience there already.-Longonjo and Saltend should be ready for construction end of 2021.Longonjo should be in production early 2023.-Jeremy Beeton has been involved in many billions of dollars of projects around the world and will be heavily engaged through the construction processes.He is very enthusiatic about creating British manufacturing jobs.-BFS was superced by BP.We only saw a small summary of BP.It is a large document and will be heavily used in funding discussions,but contains a large amount of confidential information that they cannot risk get into competitor hands.-Share price weakness due to a hedge fund shorter.-Not overly concerned by Peak announcement-feels they need to get their Tanzania ML sorted before they can really do anything.Points out that Peak have lost Rocky,Dave Hammond -their COO and Rory Gordon-their senior metallugist to PRE already.On balance a good call and he sounded pretty positive.I am pretty sure we will see the shares performing again as we get closer to the year end funding announcement.

[scaramonga88] 02/6/2021 15:29

Bla bla bla bla bla