Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 29/11/2016 15:04

Cheers PJ1,

The revelation for me was the positive cash flow in 2016 (Year End Cash £1.1m) which de-risks the business. I wasn't expecting that with the pickup in Rev.

[qs99] 29/11/2016 14:55

Sounds great and thanks for posting. First stop 5p then!! Gla

[pj 1] 29/11/2016 14:54

For those who have not seen the Finncap Report

2017 estimates
Revs £15.5m
EBITDA £1.4m
E.P.S. 0.5p
Cash end 2016 £1.1m . End 2017 £1.8m

Short term price target 5p (short term?)

Longer term price target 7p

One to visit CORP
PEL has reshaped its business over the past two years, strengthening
management and improving revenue visibility. Targeting revenue of £20m
by 2020, revenue growth from £8.5m last year to £13.2m this year and
£15.5m next suggests that at 15% growth this target may well be exceeded.
Current Middle Eastern business leaves the group well-positioned to
secure work for EXPO 2020 but with growing visibility the group is also
confident that significant opportunities exist internationally. The scene is
therefore set for a progressive revaluation of the group’s shares given the
scope for PEL to expand in an addressable and fragmented international
market identified by the group as worth £1bn pa. Our short-term TP is
based on 7x EBITDA, equating to 5p per share in the first instance.

(The document is 12 pages long)

As IC2 states above I agree that the odds are that these are 'conservative' estimates with the chances of a beat of forecasts.

I also note there appears to not yet be any Revenues (or minimal at best) from the licensing division, which could surprise?

[themadstork] 29/11/2016 13:44

This is indeed a proper business. A refreshing contrast to the ramps/scams that generally populate the lower end of AIM. I feel £15.5m revenue with .5 EPS easily justifies a P/E of 10 - 15x or 5 - 7.5p.

[csmwssk12hu] 29/11/2016 13:34

I've never said it would hit short term, and on the contrary this is actually a proper business imho

[pj 1] 29/11/2016 08:30

It may take some time to get there QS, who knows. Profit taking always kicks in at some point (it has to) and some lucky investors are well over 100% up in this now.

[qs99] 29/11/2016 08:25

indeed....no idea where 12p comes from, but your call on 5p first stop is not tenuous and can be backed up by some figures and work.....and a reasonable rating....IMO...so let's see

[pj 1] 29/11/2016 08:08

Its gone that high based on a distribution agreement. i.e. something (unresearched) tangible

Your constant ramp this will hit 12p short term has not been based on anything, other than P&D hope. You have not supplied 1 chart or 1 piece of fundamental analysis. Nothing. Its called tedious. You would be better posting on the LSE BB.

[csmwssk12hu] 29/11/2016 01:26

Every dip it gets bought, a few percent rise everyday for nearly a month, very strong signals imho dyor, oh btw you say it won't rise from 2.5 to 12, well bos has gone from 2.75 to 15 in three weeks

[interceptor2] 28/11/2016 18:59

Thanks for the Fincap revenue estimate PJ1, which at 18% growth seems fair but could prove conservative which is mostly the case with brokers. Interims saw YOY growth at 22%, yet since we have seen a new CEO in place and a particularly strong trading update.

When I worked out my own estimates from the guidance given in the trading update, my basic EPS figure at 0.328p which is a net margin figure of 4.66%. FWIW I have a very strong conviction that revenue is likely to grow at a faster pace and margins are likely to continue to increase.

If this is the case these two factors can prove very powerful, which is why I have increased my holding quickly here. As mentioned the market cap is very low at £6.5m, so best to build a decent holding while PEL is still off the radar.

[qs99] 28/11/2016 15:46

happy days if so....blue again now...

[qs99] 28/11/2016 15:21

indeed....but either way, £6.5m market cap seems harsh....IMO! Next update key to further share price appreciation unless one of the tipsters gets hold of it

[pj 1] 28/11/2016 15:02

$million question isnt it at this stage? IF they are pushing closer to 30% gp then could expect £1.5m EBITDA from £15.2m Revs, but guesswork at the moment

[qs99] 28/11/2016 14:56

OK what margin on that level of forecast turnover can we expect then? 7.6% is £1m on £13.2m from latest RNS, say they can improve that and do c.8.5% margin gives nearer £1.3m on the £15.5m you quote above pJ1.....still leaves plenty of room IMO on this coming share price plus cash generated etc....will continue to hold and see what outlook is once it breaks £10m market cap....DYOR etc...

[pj 1] 28/11/2016 14:38

Fincapp Report out today.

2017 forecast for £15.5m Revs, that's all I have at the moment

[csmwssk12hu] 28/11/2016 00:01

Another good week, well clear of 3p, 12p anyone? IMHO dyor

[hallowed be thy name] 26/11/2016 14:52

I am looking forward to seeing 2017 estimates soon which I think will confirm the growth is well in place.

[pj 1] 25/11/2016 12:05

LAMBDA reporting positive Results today. Unsure if that increases the chances of more work for PEL or not but must increase the chances at some point?

Hellenicon- Hard to find directly if anything is happening or not.

[qs99] 25/11/2016 11:25

on the up again....

[pj 1] 24/11/2016 11:24

I was lucky enough to have a medium sized position in AVS last week and, whilst in no way inferring that PEL is another AVS, there are a few similar beginnings of news flow referred to in the Presentation by Paul Scott below. Mainly Director 'speak', Director buys, general growth areas, and (hopefully) increasing and beating of earnings and cash generation, ditching of unprofitable divisions and % Director holdings and history. Basically hunting for Companies where the Market ignores the information flow.

Even if you cannot relate it more directly to PEL then its worth 15 minutes of your time to watch it IMO

[csmwssk12hu] 24/11/2016 00:04

Another few percent today was nice again

[hallowed be thy name] 23/11/2016 20:34

whilst i have had the odd dig + negative comment about PJ then fair dues where credit worth it. Sad ramas isnt having a go at Paragon, hes tried this before, hes having a go because right or wrong PJ was very negative about aAEO a couple of years ago by the looks, where ramas is in way toooo deep and out of his depth. There is No need to trawl thought the comments on the bulletin boards just compare the charts, and directors attributes. what do you say ramas?