Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[dibs61] 30/9/2019 10:00

We are at the ‘dossier review’ stage in the WHO prequalification process. This is progress because the last time I looked the status was ‘information requested from manufacturer’

hxxps://www.who.int/diagnostics_laboratory/cd4.pdf?ua=1

According to my research on the WHO website the average time it takes for the WHO prequalifcation process to complete is 270 days. So, on that basis we should, all being well, receive approval in June or July next year.


hxxps://www.who.int/diagnostics_laboratory/streamlining/en/index6.html

[upomega] 29/9/2019 18:53

Something which hopefully should occur shortly. Is an an order for cd4 on the back of erpd approval.
If that occurs then that will bridge a gap until who approval.inmo

[barrywhit] 29/9/2019 16:12

bomber, two good posts. If Nigerian approval and WHO Approval are granted in the next 12 months there will be no need for any other funding, also there is the chance of some options being taken up, but wouldn’t bank on that unless the share price reaches double what it is at present..but the company are now in a strong position...The placing has certainly helped...

[bomber13] 29/9/2019 15:17

Having re-read the annual report and recent announcements this morning , the following three points struck me -

1) Omega has constructed detailed forecasts of funding requirements for the next 12 months having made assumptions on the timing of Visitect approvals by Nigeria and the WHO . Nigeria's MOH is expected to approve Visitect by November , 2019 , and WHO approval is expected sometime in the next financial year to March , 2021 . This latter approval was previously said to be March/April 2020 by Colin King at the Investor Briefing in August , so this new assumption would seem to be hugely and conservatively risked .

2) Omega had an overdraft of £1.3m at the beginning of September , and no long term debt . The recent placing is raising £1.6m net providing it is approved at the General Meeting on 10th October . Given that current trading is in line with management expectations , that Omega has tax losses of £6.5m ( nearly 75% of current turnover ) to utilise against future profits , and that the fundraising will wipe out debt in one fell swoop , might the management be fairly accused of being overly risk averse ?

3) Under normal market circumstances , any placing of over 10% of a company's issued capital at a 15% discount to the share price would witness some immediate flipping by placees . Astonishing therefore that we have seen nothing of that ilk in Omega's shares , the shares are well bid and now challenging the falling 200 DMA . Either the placees are absolutely rock solid and are playing the long game or the market has guessed , quite rightly in my view , that this is the last issue of cheap shares in Omega for some time .............or both .

We will shortly have more meat on the bone with a trading update for the interim 6 months due in mid-October . Four shareholding groups , namely Sneller , Harwood Capital , Legal & General , and past /present directors , now control over half of Omega , and I , for one , plan to follow the money .

[bomber13] 28/9/2019 11:52

Following the recent placing , management ( admittedly including the ex-Chairman ) , now hold 5.2% of Omega , up from 4.8% last year , but perhaps of greater interest are the 5.3m options still outstanding , all now vested and representing 3.5% of the new issued capital .

The exercise prices vary from 13p to 30.5p , but , importantly , the condition attached to all of the CEO's options , and the bulk of the CFO's and Sales Director's options is that they can only be exercised if the share price has hit 50p before expiry .

That's what I call a decent carrot , and aligns their interests with our own .

[upomega] 28/9/2019 06:05

Hopefully happy days all round.onwards and upwards for every one

[dibs61] 28/9/2019 05:03

up - yep agreed. I had same experience dummy trading. Back to where we were pre-placing so market not unhappy with funding.

[upomega] 27/9/2019 23:44

Barry.it looks like it was traded yesterday and booked out today.i would say there is a buyer on the other end somewhere.the spread today didn't reflect what you could actually trade. It should have shown 11.7 to 12.5 on sizes above 25/-. You could sell up to 100/- @ 11.7

[barrywhit] 27/9/2019 17:17

Late 500k trade showing @ 11p...

[rivaldo] 27/9/2019 11:02

Exactly longshanks. I know they held the investor briefing on 19th August, but quite a lot has happened since then which they could now talk about. Let's hope there's another investor meeting or presentation in the South, say after the interims in early December.

[longshanks] 27/9/2019 10:37

They always do so Riv, which I agree is irritating for those of us that are so much further south.It would make sense to alternate the location to enable wider participation although to their credit they have held a number of investor events in London

[rivaldo] 27/9/2019 10:28

Nice 82k buy first thing today at 12.15p, well above last night's 11.8p closing offer price and even the current 12p offer price.

I see the AGM on 22nd October will be in Clackmannanshire. With such a lot going on, couldn't they hold it somewhere slightly more convenient for most investors, like Finncap or Walbrook?!

[dibs61] 26/9/2019 21:54

Arthur - thanks. Could I ask where you sourced this information?

[arthur_lame_stocks] 26/9/2019 14:08

Dibs

I believe the gross margin is about 60%.

[dibs61] 26/9/2019 13:54

A question for David Evans. David - how much is the production unit cost of each Visitect CD4 device so we can determine the potential product margin given they seem to be sold by the company for £4 per unit?

Thanks in advance.

[dibs61] 26/9/2019 13:49

More research. This time an assessment of South African health workers views on Visitect. Not completely perfect but overall thumbs up for a scale up.

hxxps://www.researchgate.net/publication/331105991_Qualitative_assessment_of_South_African_healthcare_worker_perspectives_on_an_instrument-free_rapid_CD4_test

If you hunt around on researchgate there are other articles on assessment of Visitect performance.

Remember it is the ONLY product of its kind on the market.

[wigwammer] 26/9/2019 13:13

The key point from the results is that the current business covers the operating costs of the group, such that the additional gross profit achieved from new products will fall largely to the bottom line. That's why CD4 could quickly transform the bottom line. ATB :)

[barrywhit] 26/9/2019 12:14

Delayed 75k buy and they had to pay way above the offer to get them....

[dibs61] 26/9/2019 11:48

And, unlike some articles on this topic, its up to date, its current and it demonstrates that CD4 testing still has a significant role to play particularly, but certainly not exclusively, for advanced disease.

We just need patience!

[dibs61] 26/9/2019 11:45

Eagle eyed baz ;D

[barrywhit] 26/9/2019 11:28

In this environment, some resource-constrained settings may choose to centralize their CD4 testing capacity in referral centers that manage advanced disease, providing access to peripheral centers via sample transport. Alternatively, since the test’s main function is to rapidly identify those at highest risk of morbidity [13], other settings may choose to augment central testing with point-of-care (POC) CD4 devices prequalified by WHO that have demonstrated improved test result return rates, increased retention, and other outcomes [22,23]. Within a few years, a lateral flow assay may further improve access. One company has created an instrument-free assay that may provide a semiquantitative result at a threshold of <200 cells/μL and is currently undergoing clinical testing [24]. Regardless of testing modality, timely use of CD4 test results for identifying those with advanced disease will optimize clinical outcomes.

[dibs61] 26/9/2019 11:25

No worries leeds :) Peel are marking us up this morning

[barrywhit] 26/9/2019 11:23

Really interesting article Dibs, many thanks for the link. If this article doesn't show the importance of CD4 testing and the role ODX will play in future years I don't know what will!

[leedslad001] 26/9/2019 11:15

Thanks Dibs61