Oakley Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[biggest bill] 27/2/2023 11:55

Here is a link without the need to register.

[biggest bill] 27/2/2023 11:38

The previous link doesn't work.

[davebowler] 27/2/2023 10:30

Posstive mention here

[davebowler] 17/2/2023 08:58

Investor's Chronicle concludes 3i is a sell and too high -
.... especially with 3i’s share price above its latest reported NAV, at a time when many peers trade at discounts of more than 40 per cent.

[davebowler] 09/2/2023 13:45

Mentioned here-

[biggest bill] 27/1/2023 21:21

Oakley gets tipped in Trustnet magazine.


Private equity

One area that has proved popular among investors in recent years but came off the boil a bit in 2022 is private equity, and here Chande’s selections are Oakley Capital and Chrysalis Investments.

The former invests in funds managed by the parent firm and has a strong track record of picking good companies. In particular, it knows when to sell, with an “exit premium” of 60% on its holdings since 2018.

The latter buys late-stage private companies with long-term growth potential. It has had a tough year, writing down some of its more well-known holdings such as payments firm Klarna, as well as coming under fire for charging investors high performance fees.

In 2022 the trusts’ fortunes diverged, with Oakley making a small profit while Chrysalis made a huge loss, as the below chart shows.

[biggest bill] 27/1/2023 16:04

I have thought for a while that there is a long term seller disposing of a substantial number of shares. This has depressed the price and stops the share price re-rating to an appropriate level. Eventually, the seller will run out of shares but this might take quite some time. The good news is that private investors make up an increasing percentage of the shareholder base as they gradually soak up the available shares.

[1968jon] 27/1/2023 14:23

Classic OCI share price action prior to and then after numbers. Run up in the stock as supply seems thin - 7ish percent in a couple of weeks this time - and then settles, goes nowhere and supply reappears. Numis currently have plenty to go at 352 against a hopeless yellow strip of 348/358. Probably be here for a while. No criticism, just an observation.

[davebowler] 25/1/2023 10:28

Liberum-Attractive FY22 NAV growth deliveredMkt Cap £799m | Share price 450.0p | Prem/(disc) -32.0% | Div yield 1.0%EventOakley Capital Investments' NAV per share at 31 December 2022 was 662p, reflecting a +1% NAV total return in Q4 and a +24% NAV total return (including dividends) since 31 December 2021. In the twelve months to 31 December 2022, 65% of the increase in the portfolio's value was driven by EBITDA growth. The remainder was attributable to multiple expansion driven primarily by exits. The largest contributions to the NAV growth came from IU Group which enjoyed further strong growth in enrolments, reaching 100k students. Contabo, whose sale was agreed in June at a 105% premium to its carrying value, and the valuation uplift in Grupo Primavera following its strategic combination with Cegid.OCI's underlying portfolio has continued to perform well and deliver earnings growth against a more difficult macro backdrop. OCI's focus on disruptive business models targeting long-term megatrends is expected to continue to deliver resilient trading in 2023. OCI's look-through share of proceeds and refinancing during the year amounted to £244m. This included five exits, including Contabo, TechInsights, Facile, Wishcard and Seedtag (partial) totalling £234m. These were completed at a 5x average gross money multiple and an average premium to carrying value of c.70%. Refinancings of Wishcard and Idealista generated proceeds of £10m. OCI continued to originate proprietary opportunities for its Funds across its focus sectors. OCI made total look-through investments of £269m. New investments were made in Affinitas, TechInsights (reinvestment), Phenna Group, CTS, Contabo, Facile, vLex and Vice Golf across various funds. These totalled £214m. Follow-on investments included Group Primavera (now part of Cegid), Alessi, TechInsights (acquisition of Strategy Analytics), Time Out (direct) and North Sails (direct).     OCI's total liquidity at 31 December 2022 was £210m (18% of NAV). This comprises £110m of cash on the balance sheet and a £100m credit facility. Total outstanding Oakley Fund commitments as at period end were £929m. This follows the recent €30m commitment to Oakley Capital PROfounders Fund III. Outstanding commitments will be deployed into new investments over the next five years.Liberum viewThe key takeaway from FY22 is that OCI's portfolio performance remains strong and resilient. The portfolio benefits from a high proportion of recurring or subscription-based revenue streams and exposure to a number of accelerating megatrends, such as the growing global demand for high-quality education. Highlighted by the 65% growth in NAV attributable to the EBITDA growth. The remaining 35% of the NAV growth was a result of multiple expansion primarily driven by exits. We also believe the increase in the multiple will be a reflection of the progress towards realisation for a number of portfolio companies. The trends that delivered the strong performance in FY22 remain in place entering FY23 and we are confident in OCI's ability to continue to deliver consistently strong NAV growth.OCI's five-year annualised NAV total return of 23% is the strongest amongst all AIC investment companies with a market capitalisation above £50m. While the discount has persisted over several years, NAV growth has driven shareholder total returns (+24% annualised over five-years).?The combination of the conservative valuation approach, potential realisation activity and resilience of the underlying business models underpins our belief that OCI will continue to generate attractive NAV growth. We regard the 32% discount as attractive, particularly as it implies that the discount applied to the PE portfolio is a few percentage points higher, on the basis that cash amounted to 18% of NAV at the year-end.

[donald pond] 25/1/2023 08:23

I make it that 62p is attributable to cash, so really you are paying 390 for 600 of conservatively valued, fast growing assets.
This is my second biggest investment and I expect to hold it until Dubbens hangs up his boots.

[ali47fish] 25/1/2023 07:55

ayl sorry what ;s all i say it again

[ayl30] 25/1/2023 07:30

NAV 662p share price 450p says it all really

[suresure] 22/1/2023 10:50

Apols - just realised this was posted earlier.

[suresure] 22/1/2023 10:45

https://hardman-co.com/49CL-1H3LG-6ZE13F-1AQGLR-1/c.aspx

[1968jon] 20/1/2023 17:35

Yes, but don’t let the 456 close confuse you! 437/440 is the market.

[davebowler] 20/1/2023 16:59

! all time high?

[1968jon] 20/1/2023 10:49

Sorry, I didn't need to write the above......I had already written similar in May last year.....repeating oneself is a sign of age.....?

1968jon13 May '22 - 15:17 - 841 of 979 Edit
0 4 0
I have mentioned HGT as a comparison to OCI on here before, while highlighting that they are different - I might even agree radically different Makinbuks. As I have argued previously, HgCapital were not massively different 8-10ish years ago to where Oakley Capital are now. Looking for similar business characteristics, writing similar sized tickets and certainly speaking the same language. Hg were very successful, raised continually bigger funds, stopped doing the entrepreneurial stuff, went all in on increasingly giant software deals and re-fis in possibly the biggest run up in global software valuations ever, while investor relationshipping the pants off everyone. Look at their top ten holders! They are a giant software house to the stars with multiples to match. Their minimum equity ticket now must be £1bn+? Good luck to them. That was the process of discount reduction. I think currently and likely for a while OCI has the better risk/reward and multiple cushion for a set back in a recession and that HGT continues it's drift down to a discount to NAV like most of the rest of them....

[1968jon] 20/1/2023 10:34

In my opinion, HGT is the poster child for listed private equity, a quasi ETF for wealth managers who don't shovel their clients into their own name offering - look at their large shareholders. Over the last ten years they have got to that position by being brilliant, raising larger and larger funds and having a superb IR operation. (I always add here that if anyone had gone all-in on software over the last 5 years they would have made a fortune). I follow HGT very closely but have no position. The most likely outcome is that they continue to be a superb investment. I look at the increase of their EV/EBITDA multiples over the last 5 years and at the valuations they ascribe to absolutely massive software investments - I think they are very fully valued.
I own a lot of OCI because they are a bit "rough". In different sectors, but their EV/EBIDTA multiples could arguably be higher, they have a lot of cash and many punters can't even buy them. Also, no wealth manager would go near them. My guess would be that Peter Dubens never intends to sell his OCI stake at a discount and that there is a 5-10 year plan to follow a path similar to HGT.

[davebowler] 19/1/2023 09:48

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When it comes to the alternatives, Numis particularly like the listed private equity sector, which has a selection of high-quality managers with a record of outperforming equity markets. It offers an attractive valuation opportunity with wide discounts factoring in significant potential NAV declines, whereas they believe the underlying portfolios will be more resilient than investors expect.

One of their highest conviction recommendations in this area is HgCapital Trust (LON: HGT) that is trading on a 15% discount and which focuses on ‘dull tech that seeks to automate business processes and increase efficiency’. Another that they pick out is Oakley Capital (LON: OCI) that has a strong track record and is trading on what Numis describe as an ‘excessive and unwarranted’ discount of 34%.

[davebowler] 16/1/2023 13:46

................The Oakley Capital Investment Trust is at a 36 per cent discount, but it provides exposure to the development of cloud computing and ecommerce in southern Europe, an area that the trust's manager Steven Tredget argues is behind 'the digital disruption curve'.........

[biggest bill] 16/1/2023 13:21

Oakley gets a mention here.

[davebowler] 04/1/2023 19:09

One of our areas of investment expertise -Edtech hTTps://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/04/euan-blair-edtech-firm-multiverse-reports-sixth-straight-year-of-losses

[elsa7878] 03/1/2023 07:55

Realise part of their North Sails investment (part sale / float/ third party investment to highlight market value) and the discount will narrow substantially.

[davebowler] 03/1/2023 06:51

Oakley Capital Investments (OCI) has an outstanding performance record but was trading at a discount to NAV of 38 per cent as of 20 December, wider than its 12-month average of 31 per cent, according to Winterflood. The trust invests in funds run by its manager, Oakley Capital, which invest directly in private companies, and it has exposure to 27 companies.

“Oakley Capital Investments posted a strong third-quarter NAV, up 4 per cent, driven predominantly by earnings growth, which continues to be the significant driver of value increases,” says Trodd. “Oakley Capital has a strong track record in its private funds due to a well-defined strategy focusing on mid-market European buyouts in the consumer, technology and education sectors.”...IC

[biggest bill] 29/11/2022 10:55

This is from the valuation section of the Hardman report.

"The charts below show the discounts of OCI’s closest competitors, together with
their five-year total share price returns. Despite having a better five-year return than all its peers, OCI is trading at one of the highest discounts. There are, of course, differences in business models (although it may be argued that the five-year total return would reflect this). Taking an absolute rating perspective, it also appears anomalous that a company with a strong track record of growth and value-added
should trade at any discount to NAV at all."