Northern Recruitment Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 18/5/2005 15:37

Been selling out on these and am now completely out. By complete coincidence it seems Robbie Burns is also out today, and for the same reasons as me - no likelihood of news till August, especially given it seems we won't get a trading statement like last year, so profits can't be visibly that much better than expectations.

Like CKN, HYC and other ISA-bles this remains an excellent company, but it's liable to sag under a bit of selling. At best I wouldn't have thought it's going very far till the results.

[david77] 17/5/2005 10:18

From Citywire

Broker Roundup: CSFB cautious on staffing shares
Published: 08:44 Tuesday 17 May 2005
By: Phil Cozens, Stockmarket Correspondent

CSFB has downgraded its rating for Hays to underperform from neutral, cutting its target price to 115p from 145p and has downgraded its rating for Michael Page to neutral from outperform cutting price target to 210p from 222p.
....
* Deutsche Bank has hold stances on Hays, Michael Page, ...

[lafiamma] 16/5/2005 08:56

Worth a read:



(No position in stock)

[jgscott] 10/5/2005 14:07

I suspect this share has gone into hibernation until August. Any other views?

[shirishg] 30/4/2005 03:39

Post removed by ADVFN

[deswalker] 29/4/2005 12:17

Thanks for reminding me Rivaldo.

I would have thought that 16.2 basic eps would warrant an RNS. This is 10% higher than currently forecast. In such circumstances this share is currently trading on a maximum cash adjusted PE of (190 - 36) / 16.2 = 9.5. Personally I expect 16.2 eps to be beaten comfortably, so I see it cheaper still. If they can manage 17.1p basic eps then we're trading at a multiple of less than 9.

Des

[rivaldo] 29/4/2005 11:38

Consensus from the two most recent forecasts in April is for 14.69p EPS to 30/6/05 and 16.42p EPS to 30/6/06.

But see my above posts for why I believe these are very cautious - remember NRG made 6.6p basic EPS in H1, and made 8.9p EPS in last year's H2 - so they actually have to make only 8.1p EPS this time in the seasonally better H2 to achieve forecasts!

[david77] 29/4/2005 10:39

Looks like a home for some of my MRYX money recvd today when the cheque clears.

[deswalker] 29/4/2005 10:22

Does anyone have the current forecasts to hand ? Usually 10% over warrants a Trading Statement.

[davpat] 29/4/2005 09:56

A good trading statement would indeed be helpful, and the 200 day line which currently threatens to be broken doesn't help either.

[rivaldo] 29/4/2005 08:24

Hmmm....I was just thinking how well NRG had held up recently! Now on a probable historic P/E of 11 or 12, with Labour almost certain to be re-elected and thereby helping NRG's key markets to continue to thrive.

Tiny selling as well, but I guess lack of demand means the MM's can do as they like.

Hopefully a trading statement any day if last year is anything to go by.

[rivaldo] 25/4/2005 19:01

Too right Lauders - and MBY still has plenty to go! I'm optimistic that NRG will do the same (and I also think CEL will too if you fancy a look there - CEL has even more cash than NRG!).

Just speculating about the possibilities for NRG, this year's H1 EPS was 61% better than last year. Even if this year's H2 is only 20% better than last year's 8.9p EPS, that's 10.7p EPS, making 17.3p EPS for the year. Give that a typical sector P/E of 18 and a share price of 311p follows....

[lauders] 25/4/2005 13:09

Harvey Nash results out today and no movement in NRG's share-price.



I am hoping that NRG will do a MBY soon, i.e. no life for months and then..... breakout!

[rivaldo] 25/4/2005 11:44

No probs DW. Just re-evaluating where the share price could go, the average recruitment sector P/E is around 18-20. I'm pretty confident that NRG will achieve the above 16.1p EPS to 30/6/05, in which case even a P/E of 18 would give a price target of 290p.

And that's without taking any account of the £6.3m of cash - the entire market cap is only £35m!!

[deswalker] 25/4/2005 10:28

Thanks for the link Riv. Sounds like NRG should be doing just fine.

[rivaldo] 25/4/2005 10:12

This is good news for NRG with their strong presence in Edinburgh and Glasgow:


Extract:
"Scottish jobs market grows for 20th month in a row
KARL WEST April 25 2005

FURTHER evidence of a buoyant Scottish jobs market emerged yesterday with new figures showing the number of permanent placements up for the 20th consecutive month.
The latest report on Scotland's labour market from the Bank of Scotland shows the rate of improvement in March quickened from the previous month, and remained above the UK average for the second month running.
Demand for staff grew at the strongest rate in the report's history in March. However, a further fall in candidate availability meant that staff appointments only grew at a moderate pace, as recruitment consultants struggled to find suitable staff for certain jobs."

[rivaldo] 25/4/2005 09:03

Nice and quiet here now, but not far off the 30/6 year end. Incidentally, last year there was a positive trading statement on 28th April..

Consensus forecast is for 14.7p EPS to 30/6/05. But NRG made 6.6p EPS in H1 to 31/12/04 and 8.9p EPS in last year's H2. So with no growth at all over last year NRG should make 15.5p EPS this year. They only need to make 9.5p EPS in this year's stronger half and they'll be 10% above forecasts and needing to make a trading statement - that's just 6.7% better than last year's H2, and would give annual EPS of 16.1p and a historic P/E of just 12.7...

Happy to continue holding these in my ISA.

[lauders] 15/4/2005 07:45

Results from another company in the sector (sort of!) this morning:



Excerpts:

ATA Group plc ('ATA') is a human resource support services group, which provides
employment solutions and training services to client companies in the United
Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland.

Recruitment and labour supply

Demand for candidates for permanent positions remained strong and on an
improving trend during the year but a paucity of quality candidates distorted
the balance of supply and demand. Nonetheless by increasing effectiveness at the
'sharp end', key performance ratios held up well and a satisfactory improvement
in profitability was achieved. ATA Selection Ltd was, however, still operating
at well short of optimum levels and key management changes took place in the
second half of the year resulting in a pleasing enhancement of trading results
in the final quarter. Additionally the pace quickened in contract recruitment
and by the year end the majority of our locations had teams of contract
consultants.

OUTLOOK

The pendulum swings. After three lean years recruitment is in much better shape
and is expected to continue to improve and expand, with much of the turnover
increase arising from expansion in contract recruitment.

PROSPECTS

The strategic mix of recruitment and training across a range of markets, based
on the flexibility embodied in the capability of the management team to pursue
growth areas, is the essence of the Group's business prospects. The expertise,
experience and brands of the trading entities support this future.
The balance of revenues shifted during 2004 in favour of the recruitment
services and this trend will continue in 2005, excluding any acquisitions, based
largely on organic developments in contract recruitment. Whilst the gross
margins in contract are generally lower than in training the opportunity for
growth is significant utilising the physical capacity of the national office
network and IT infrastructure of the Group.
The training elements will encounter a year of change due to the revised Network
Rail framework and it is envisaged that certain activities currently performed
by the Group will be subsumed into Network Rail. Revenues will be affected and
costs will need to be realigned as this transition unfolds during 2005.
Acquisitions remain an important part of the overall strategy to bolt new market
areas into the strategic mix of recruitment and training. The Group has
established a track record in the selection, assessment and integration of such
businesses and remains an active player in this field.

---------------------------------

So overall things look okay and the rail side of their business appears to be the likely problem, though they say it is improving. Generally okay though and shows that the sector is still doing well.

What chance of NRG reacting a little and the share-price heading north again? Mind you the static nature is better than the declines being seen a lot over the last week or so.

[gswredland] 06/4/2005 11:52

Thanks Orange. Thought it might be MPI that had an influence on the price, or was it tipped somewhere?

[orange1] 06/4/2005 08:29

"All our geographic regions continued to show good growth in the first
quarter and the outlook for the group remains encouraging," said chief executive
Terry Benson of Michael Page, today.
Recruitment firms are benefiting from a worldwide recovery in recruitment
levels within the key accountancy and finance, and information technology
sectors, both of which emerged from a prolonged downturn at the start of 2004.
The company said revenues in its key home UK market, which generates around
half the group's income, rose 17.1 pct.

[gswredland] 30/3/2005 16:04

blimey this is crazy!these are very good value...

[davpat] 30/3/2005 15:34

Just been on to broker Brewin Dolphin here in Newcastle (home of NRG), and my dealer knows of no special company reason why the drop should occur. It has to be market down day effects. Just a nuisance that's all. Back to sleep......
DAVPAT

[lauders] 30/3/2005 13:15

momentos,

Are you sure there is a pulse?

Being marked down like most other things these days. At least my HRN is climbing today ;-)

[momentos] 22/3/2005 09:03

Charging to 200...

CLEAR!

WE HAVE A PULSE!

NRG issues March 2005 Newsletter!!!

[lauders] 22/3/2005 04:12

Yep,

Does look rather dead here doesn't it?

Best focus on this part of the results:

---------------------
Outlook

Prospects remain encouraging for the key regional economies in which we operate,
particularly the North East. We are experiencing continuing strong demand for
permanent staff from both the public and private sectors. We have recently won
another major contract with central government and have a number of significant
bids and tenders outstanding. We face more testing comparatives in the coming
months, though the current visibility of business gives me confidence that we
can look forward to delivering solid progress for the year as a whole.
----------------------

And then there is always the possibility of cash being returned to shareholders!

Just needs the latter, or one of those significant bids or tenders to appear as an 'A' one day and the upward momentum should continue. Look at Mayborn as an example. It was a flatliner for a while and then buys came in and results beat expectations + an acquisition and now it is at an all time high. Patience is needed with this one as well I think.