Northbridge Industrial S... Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 06/2/2014 10:33

"Trading during the second half of 2013 featured strong cash generation, resulting in a significant reduction in gearing, solid equipment sales and rental revenue and further direct investment into the hire fleet."

Commenting on trading, Eric Hook, Chief Executive Officer of Northbridge, said:

"The acquisitions and investment into the Group's hire fleet have increased and strengthened our successful global business. We remain committed to our strategy of organic and acquisitive growth through continued investment into the hire fleet and by the acquisition of specialist, cash generative rental businesses. We remain optimistic of continued growth and are well positioned as the world economy continues to show signs of improvement."

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maybe the market can start thinking about the future and results for this year and next year....although current area of share price is perhaps about right for now...any estimates for 2014 would probably wait until prelim results are issued and EPS and cashflow etc reported...

[smithie6] 06/2/2014 10:12

nice statement imo

incl.
- gearing reduced (reducing risk a bit from debt aspects )
- cash generation
- equipt. sales AND rentals both doing well...ie. the business
- investing more into equipt.
- more turnover and profit coming from acquisitions

the track record since listing has been excellent imo
well done to the directors, esp. the execs.


...hopefully the comment about the global economy improving will turn out to happen...important for the rental sector...

[apad] 06/2/2014 08:06

nice boring AIM share I reckon.
Bought a first tranche on the statement.
apad

[smithie6] 05/2/2014 18:21

2009 diluted weighted number of shares 8.3M
turnover = 12.7M

per share = 1.53 pnds/share


2010
diluted weighted number of shares 11.9M
turnover = 19.3M

per share = 1.62 pnds/share

2012
diluted weighted number of shares 15.6M
turnover = 31M

per share = 1.98 pnds/share

====


growing nicely imo....

and over time I think it has a good chance to continue to do so.....as it takes its cash profits and feeds it back in to the business to
- buy more rental equipt. to then obtain more turnover and profit
- make acquistions of profitable companies, ie. it is buying more yearly profit


...might be ups and downs along the way, as 2009 results show

(one can compare with some IT companies which keep issuing new shares to fund their growth....(NBI issues new shares sometimes as well, but a lot of the cash put in to equipment comes from cash generated each year, ...OK partly needed to balance out depreciation, but at least NBI kit is not old so one could argue the depreciation of 10% is perhaps onerous on calc. for profits, but it does reduce tax charge)
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hopefully , around this stage of the company's growth the increasing revenue will make the cost of HQ and dirs. and listing etc to be a smaller part wrt the PBT.....hence leaving more to end up in the bottom line

[alter ego] 05/2/2014 12:18

apart from nice ones!

[nurdin] 05/2/2014 10:41

Hope there are no surprises !

[smithie6] 27/1/2014 17:53

spo....next Thursday, 6th Feb. for the trading update
not long now

[smithie6] 22/1/2014 10:58

RNS from 17th Jan.....

"advises that it will be releasing its trading update in advance of its preliminary results announcement for the year ended 31 December 2013 on Thursday, 6 February. This will be followed by the release of preliminary results, for the year ended 31 December 2013, during the week commencing Monday, 7 April."

price to sell is up a smidge today....perhaps some parts of the mkt starting to think about EPS results for the new financial year that we are now in.

I note that no news from the company that it has failed to meet market expectations in fin. yr. just ended....which infers imo that they have met market expectations..or close to them
----

sells going thru today at 476 vs 462 only 2 days ago

[smithie6] 09/1/2014 16:11

Woody
On the subject of books....an old book I picked up again by chance the other day to have a scan through.....quite useful if you know anyone that wants an intro level book......Beginners guide to Investing by Bernard Gray .....my copy is old, 1993 edition !
...useful thing about the book is that it covers a very wide area of subjects (since the author was in finance area for as few years incl working for Inv. Chronicle) and often includes little gems....like saying things like 'and this is often a trick to con shareholders'

(includes explanation of things like partly paid IPO shares ....and stagging of IPOs......ah, memories of BT and other IPOs...seems like a long time ago now)

an experienced investor will already know all the stuff in the book imo....but it is useful for a quick simple reminder imo...and reminders of tricks to watch out for...while for newbies to investing it would be a good book I think
(I dont know if its still in print or buyable)

[smithie6] 07/1/2014 10:32

Thanks Woody


Japanese candlesticks !......"Japanese" wow, learn something every day

----

btw I see that Black Rock have picked up a few more. Now holding 10%. 8M squid. Clearly have a lot of confidence in the bod.

[woodcutter] 03/1/2014 22:45

Smithie

Candlestick charting books firstly the bible

"japanese candlestick charting techniques" by nison

but most easily helpful on the desk top

"profitable candlestick trading" by bigalow.

The also a fantastic video by bigalow which simon gordon made me ware of on you tube which covers pretty much everything in the book............for free.



Woody

[smithie6] 02/1/2014 17:33

picked for 2014...cool

(It was one of my five picks for 2012, much much cheaper then !)

you've linked to a page on SHares website that is subscription only,
do you work for Shares mag. ?...on commission basis ?!


----
trading update in 2013 was on 31st Jan....so hopefully it will be somewhere around there this year

here's a link to last year's trading update

[dell1234] 02/1/2014 08:17

Northbridge is one of Shares mag's picks for 2014. The article is here:

[smithie6] 30/12/2013 18:27

Woody
can you possibly remind me the name of the candles or charting book you suggested previously ?

I'm tempted to give it a go...

[smithie6] 29/12/2013 17:10

btw
Motley Fool website predicts 31p EPS for 2013 and 35p for 2014.



be excellent if achieves that 35p EPS for 2014....

[smithie6] 29/12/2013 16:53

NBI should report EPS in the 30p region....be very interesting what outlook news and current trading news is produced....to feed in to an EPS expectation for new fin. year and hence the key P/E number....noting the P/E number has increased a lot in the last year.

is the large jump in EPS in 2013 going to keep going ?

Personally I expect that the dirs. will continue in 2014 with use of debt and gearing to try to keep the growth going, subject of course to it being possible and prudent. (ie. keeping the gearing % roughly the same while feeding cashflow back in to buy more rental equipment or acquisitions....to increase future turnover and profit).

[smithie6] 29/12/2013 16:47

Woody
...I accept most of your point....

although....if Aggreko and other hire companies say they are busy, it shows a certain level of economic activity imo which does benefit NBI to a degree imo

(btw, I think Aggreko may make use of NBI load banks on occasion or occasionally buy some)

(if Aggreko said they could not hire out their kit, and other hire companies said the same, it would imo show a poor level of economic activity and be bad for NBI)
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Aggreko's prior warning was imo partly a result of amazing prior period results, due to numerous events like Olympics and Japan calling in shed loads of generators as it switched off nuclear power stations after Fukoshima etc which werent going to occur in next period...

[cnx] 27/12/2013 15:04

on reading the rnwh bb, I see nbi is also tipped as a share for 2014

[woodcutter] 17/12/2013 17:58

Not comparable i'm afraid smithie, market caps are miles apart and markets too. Some time ago Aggreko warned on prfofits and NBI continued on it's merry way north. So i think there's little, if any, correlation. Nevertheless i consider NBI to have every chance of meeting targets.

Woody

[smithie6] 16/12/2013 10:40

"Among notable movers, shares of Aggreko PLC rallied 6.2% after the temporary-power provider said it expects full-year results to be ahead of expectations."

[smithie6] 26/11/2013 12:45

at 495p buy price there is now 55p of NBI shares inside every 1 shares in Western Selection. WESP on isdx.com which has a sell/buy quoted price of 55-60p

(a few shares have been sold at 55p so the MM may let those go for 57p as done in past trades)

according to my calcs. NBI has a NAV around 125p, see WSE message brd. for details
...(including valuing a subsidiary using a P/E of 10 rather than just its nett assets value)
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imo NBI looks very strong recently and set to grind a bit higher imo, unless markets generally see a dip
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be nice to see 5 squid on the board.
5 times the original IPO price around 6-7 years ago...good perf. from the shares
...and from the directors esp. the MD Eric Hook who started it all off

[smithie6] 26/11/2013 12:35

Good interim results from VP. by the way...in roughly the same general sector..but with many differences

"our confidence in the opportunities for growth"

....hopefully for the whole rental sector

and going leave a little bit for NBI ! ;-)

------

"Highlights

Profit before tax and amortisation increased 17% to £12.8 million (2012: £11.0 million)
Revenues of £91.3 million, 9% ahead (2012: £84.0 million)
Return on capital employed 13.9% (2012: 13.2%)
Profit margins improved once again to 14.0% (2012: 13.0%)
Capital investment in rental fleet 46% higher than the prior year at £18.3 million
Acquisitions of £4.6 million
Interim dividend increased to 3.6 pence per share
Solid balance sheet with strong operational cash flow

Jeremy Pilkington, Chairman of Vp plc, commented:
"The Group has produced another excellent set of results with profits, margins, return on capital and earnings per share all strongly ahead. Substantial capital investment in the rental fleet and the acquisition of Mr Cropper in September demonstrates our confidence in the opportunities for growth. The Board believes the Group is very well placed to continue to deliver further progress for the year as a whole and beyond."

[smithie6] 26/11/2013 12:14

10%
thats 8.4M squids worth
Blackrock are clearly keen on NBI
and a lot of confidence in management to invest 8M in what still a relatively small co. in the overall market...even though it has built up a lot over the last few years

----
and today buys going thru at 495p.....

a few trades going thru yesterday and today...

still looking strong

[roddiemac2] 22/11/2013 12:46

Blackrock now up to 10.10%

[smithie6] 20/11/2013 12:48

NBI...a small trade today at around 492p

Western has 2 M shares.
= 9.84M squid

Western has just under 18M shares (17.9M)
so amount of NBI per 1 western share is
= 9.84/18
= 54.7p

and western share price is 55-60p
ie. the price to sell western shares is the same as the asset value it has in shares of NBI, around 55p

imo it includes around 70p of other assets in the sp, valuing its unlisted asset at a P/E of 10.

Choice
a) use say 10k to buy or own NBI shares at 492p
or

b) use say 10k to buy or own western shares at 10% of the same price
and get say 9k of NBI shares
but get perhaps more than 10k of other things thrown in for free, giving around 20k of assets imo (western buy price at 60p and NAV around 125p imo)

imo option b) is better
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Benefit of gearing
A)
'if' the assets of western go up in value by 10% then, if we believe my estimate of 125p, increase is 12.5p, or 21% of the western share price of 60p to buy
whereas

'if' the share price of NBI goes up by 10% then
the share price goes up by 10%

10% is much lower than 21% !

B) If only NBI goes up in price by 10% and other western assets do not move in price

your gain if you buy or own NBI shares is 10%

whereas

increase in NAV of western would be 10% of 54.5p (NAV now in NBI shares) = 5.4p
9% of western sp

basically the same
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"some -ve factors like illiquid and listed on isdx"

....personally I dont think that ISDX will stop allowing share trades (eg. imo it has a modern system created in the last few years and handle trades for AIM stocks) or that Western would de-list (Western has assets of around 22.5M if believe my calculation, its a decent size imo and has decent real income to support it......much more solid imo than many investment vehicles on AIM or ISDX with cap. values under 5M but which might be better known to microcap 'punters')