Norcros Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 10/8/2023 15:11

Valuing on a PE basis will never go out of fashion.

OK, as a crude "share price"/"basic EPS" it is hopelessly crude, but with appropriate adjustments for debt, assets, underlying diluted earnings and a few other bits and pieces, and checking future prospects, PE (or EV) is the simplest and best basic measure to start with.

[kipper7] 10/8/2023 08:51

You must realise that the days of valuing small caps on p/e are well and truly overThere are lots of them like thisMarket doesn't believe the earnings will be sustained

[edmundshaw] 09/8/2023 15:56

Yes, but a PE of under 4? And a comfortable 5.6% yield while we wait for a recovery...

[elsa7878] 09/8/2023 12:00

It's always been cheap and sadly the discount is only getting bigger as political and economic risk (corruption leading to a complete lack of energy production investment) has made it hard to value. Add to that the acquisition in the UK last year, which while a good fit, was not well timed. £50 million in debt with all of the above is not ideal.

[shbgetreal] 09/8/2023 11:55

Of course, but that was basically priced in before the past month's slide!

How low can it go?

[elsa7878] 09/8/2023 11:44

S.Africa... up to 10 hours of power cuts per day. 1/4 of profits.

[shbgetreal] 09/8/2023 11:32

Just the current market - cash generative company with good management hits top of market expectations in last results, prompting a steady downward slide in share price...

[s34icknote] 09/8/2023 09:31

Lacking any support ? Or seller ?

[kipper7] 08/8/2023 23:38

Shares are almost in free fallNo buyers in site even at these pricesWorrying

[kipper7] 26/7/2023 09:53

How much is revenue in South Africa ba royal revenues of company?

[s34icknote] 26/7/2023 08:06

Steady as she goes tracing statement Africa beyond there control .No massive deterioration in trade that the share price reflects .

[s34icknote] 12/7/2023 14:48

Don't you love these stocks Go down with market but never rallies !Guess why the P/E ratio is so low !

[s34icknote] 10/7/2023 19:37

Director taking advantage with 30k

[edmundshaw] 07/7/2023 16:21

s34, there is a test match and Wimbledon. Whta do you expect??

[s34icknote] 07/7/2023 08:49

Cheap as chips but still no buyers !!

[kipper7] 06/7/2023 09:46

Every analyst is bullish on the basis of cheap p/e. However I o the shares will only start to rally when interest rates peak

[pj84] 05/7/2023 20:55

Valuation suggests c 50% upside

Norcros is trading at the lower end of its long-term consensus forward P/E range on 5.5x (Edison forecast P/E: 5.3x), suggesting that a lot of bad news is priced in. In fact, it has only traded materially below the current rating for a brief period in early 2020 during the pandemic and for a short period around the time of Liz Truss’s brief stint as prime minister. Following the results, we have lowered our valuation from 252p/share as our earnings estimates have reduced, largely due to weakness in South Africa and higher interest costs at group level. Our P/E based valuation implies a value of 237p/share based on our lowered diluted underlying FY24 EPS estimate of 31.6p/share. Our revised DDM implies a value of 255p/share, and if we take the average of the two, we arrive at 246p, implying c 50% upside.

Simple forward P/E multiple valuation implies 237p/share

The chart below details the progression of Norcros’s consensus forward P/E over the last cycle. The range at the extremes is a low of 4x, reached briefly post COVID-19 and again recently, and the high is c 12x at the end of 2013, before the Brexit hiatus. Over this period and outside the extreme ratings, the ‘real’ range has arguably been 6–9x and the average over the whole period is 7.5x.

[pj84] 03/7/2023 20:49

Peel Hunt: Norcros cheap despite tough outlook
A tougher outlook has led to downgraded figures at bathroom supplier Norcros (NXR), but it is still ‘screening cheaply’, says Peel Hunt.

Analyst Sam Cullen retained his ‘buy’ recommendation but reduced his target price from 240p to 220p on the Citywire Elite Companies triple A-rated stock, which rose 3.5%, or 6p, to 176p at the end of last week.

After what Cullen described as a ‘solid set of full-year 2023 numbers’, he reduced forecasts for outer years ‘to reflect the worsening macro picture’. He reduced operating profit forecasts by 7% in both 2024 and 2025.

‘Like many UK building materials companies, Norcros continues to screen cheaply and trades on 6 times current year 2024 earnings,’ he said.

‘Alongside this, the new management team’s greater focus on active portfolio management should be helpful to the equity story in the coming months.’

[kipper7] 03/7/2023 20:39

165 closeReally poor price actionBlack hole below here

[s34icknote] 30/6/2023 23:29

How did we close at 169p ?When 180 was paid today !!!Total market manipulation !!!!

[kipper7] 30/6/2023 08:16

That's why it went down 5%

[s34icknote] 30/6/2023 06:19

Ex div yesterday 6.8p ! Banked