Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 09/11/2023 06:52

And if it is Scottish Widows every year for the last 10 years

[apollocreed1] 06/11/2023 15:18

@chucko- Good example of your point was the large funds coming into Civitas Social housing when it was trading at a huge discount and then forcing through the takeover even though the offer was at a 20% discount to NAV. Quick turnover for them but they have the company away to opportunists.

[chucko1] 06/11/2023 13:13

I made a comment (elsewhere) about how the non-retail holders of many ITs have been shown to be the worst holders. Always (at least the past year or two) with an eye on the near-term discount and thence lower declared fund unit values etc.

Being underwater as a result of higher bond yields but without a likely impairment of cash flows really is no reason to destroy future value. Having said that, issuing these ITs and seeing nearly all go to 30%ish discounts regardless of quality is a difficult issue which has no easy solutions. Private funds with 5-7 year holding periods needs to be modified somewhat to make it accessible to retail, but I have no sympathy for funds who back these ITs and then run for cover. It messes up what could be a good market, especially considering the issues the open funds have so notably suffered.

All I can do in the current turmoil is to trade them "spivilly, somewhat", with a core holding related to the level of 10yr Gilts and UST and inflation. Quite a few parameters there, all of which have been extremely volatile - forcing frequent rebalancing. For example, EBOX and SUPR rose 13-15% in basically 2 days. Warranted on EBOX, but not on SUPR (originally a largish holding, so I sold half on Friday) - I say that even though I prefer SUPR over EBOX by some margin.

[flyer61] 06/11/2023 10:53

Thanks chucko1,

everything has its price. All it's counterparties are Investment grade entities and they are long term. I am happy with the FX risks in fact I embrace it across the portfolios I manage. The fund has only been in existence since 2019. The management company is being changed to the lot that run INPP. It seems to me it will go the same way as EPIC, taken out at a discount to declared NAV. The BOD engineering in that direction by using/declaring the lowest NAV of the range that they have been given. The divi at an operating cash level is not covered.

It is mainly institutional shareholders here and they are significantly under water.
Might start nibbling....as feel I know how it will end.

[chucko1] 06/11/2023 10:31

Flyer, I had looked at USFP a while back and passed. I cannot remember why, exactly, but I suppose I could not get comfortable with the regulatory risk relative to the then valuation.

Now, it seems that there is all sorts of noise regarding continuation, and that is a matter to be determined in the not far distance, as I understand it. Is is essentially denominated in USD, so FX risk, and the bid offer is pretty wide etc. etc.

But these are my own added risk points, and that may not be the same for everyone. And, finally, at the price, it might now be a decent one to speculate on.

[flyer61] 04/11/2023 20:05

Looking through USFP it appears some of the dividend is being paid from capital.
The market turned higher this week and it went the other way. Not much volume as free float low versus institutional holders. Expect it to be sold at some stage but at materially below NAV.

[petewy] 04/11/2023 17:45

I was in USF and it was a mess.

[yump] 04/11/2023 17:27

I've bought quite a few recently. They say buy when everyone else is fearful, but I think it should be 'buy when everyone else is fearful and you're not exactly optimistic yourself'. That's the reality for me anyway. There is never no fear anywhere near bottoms.

How scared was everyone in 1998, 2003, 2008, 2020 etc ? Anyone who pretends they weren't when they were buying after massive falls is telling fibs ! Its a stressful discipline.

[flyer61] 03/11/2023 17:46

chucko1....I have gone like the clappers this last month to buy a spread of Renewable/Infrastructure trusts. Have joined you here. One that caught my eye because it appears very simple is US Solar Fund. USFP. If you get a chance i'd be grateful if you take a look.

[chucko1] 03/11/2023 13:45

Quadrupled my position this morning. Last time 10 yr Gilts were at this yield level (late July 2023), the share price here was 96.

That is just one factor, albeit pretty important, but adding to that the likelihood of a large and stupid market participant, it is a nice bet.

10yr US yields in corporates down 60 basis point in two days. Part of that owing to the 12.30pm GMT US employment report.

[chucko1] 03/11/2023 10:33

Given yesterday's IT mega rally and the rather weak rise in NESF, I can only think there is still a needy seller. In which case, forget the anomalously sticky valuation.

[roddyb] 03/11/2023 09:29

What am I missing on this one? We have guaranteed revenues, our borrowings are long term fixed, cash-flow is great? I can understand us producing a 6-7% yield but at 11.2% we are being treated like junk bonds?

[marksp2011] 02/11/2023 04:48

If you had made a "mistake" unwinding it by firing loads of big O trades at the market is only sensible if you want to push the share price down.

[yump] 01/11/2023 09:53

I blame mobile phones - they’re not designed for human hands. Apparently one was discovered on an alien ship in Nevada years ago, so it was copied, forgetting that aliens have long thin fingers.

[cc2014] 01/11/2023 08:35

The trades on NESF didn't go through as a large trade through a corporate broker.

It's a fat finger and then the unwind of it imho

[marksp2011] 31/10/2023 21:17

Look at GSF todaySomeone was trying to move the price. And succeeded. Liquidity is thin so take deriv positions then pile into the cash market. There are some traders making a lot of money

[marksp2011] 31/10/2023 21:07

No, there are smarter ways to sell a big quantity via the corporate broker. You only do something like that if you want to move the price

[cc2014] 31/10/2023 14:13

Some screwed up and bought a huge quantity in error.

A few days ago we saw the share price move up about 5% in one day. IIRC it kicked off in the last hour of the trading day. Someone was buying in lumps over and over again. You could go through the trades, but there were very many lumps of around £100k. Very many of them and very many smaller lumps as well.

The size and speed they were buying in was illogical and drove the share price up by around 5% or whatever it was and on checking you will find it was only NESF in the sector that moved.

A couple of days later someone has realised (T2 settlement?) and then they've reversed their position in a hurry, either because they bought the wrong stock in error, or they've bought 10 or 100 times the quantity they wanted or whatever.

[cruelladeville] 31/10/2023 13:39

Well, I'm still not understanding what triggered the sell off here yesterday?

[andycapp1] 30/10/2023 15:12

I’m a weary holder and I’m concerned about their capital recycling programme which is dead in water and secondly the pref. it gears the Ords a lot at the current price. I wish it wasn’t there.

[robertspc1] 30/10/2023 15:03

Added a few too

[tonytyke2] 30/10/2023 14:58

Interesting, just added some more.

[marksp2011] 30/10/2023 14:54

More selling. Big lumps
Either

Someone knows something
Short seller
Someone needs money fast

If you had to offload shares, you wouldn't be selling like that into the market unless you are an idiot or, you want to hit the price