Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[marktime1231] 19/6/2023 10:53

Hmmmm. Nothing new since the NAV-error announced 5 weeks ago. Installed capacity and underlying NAV growth flat, no reportable progress on the divestment of assets, no reportable progress on coupling solar with storage. And I agree it is puzzling how they can increase the dividend to 8.35p with such confidence having only delivered 8.2p eps last year despite slightly exceeding solar generation target. Presumably because the bulk of generation price is RPI-linked?

The cost of servicing the RCF is a heck of a bite out of NAV, along with the looming cost of new development commitments it explains the enthusiasm for divesting profitable assets. NESF has too much debt. The other reason for raising funds ... a buyback to narrow the approx 10% share price discount to NAV ... must also be pressing on those with stock price related remuneration plans.

I would say "could have been worse" rather than "very positive". We should be keenly looking out for news of real progress. The one encouragement for me is that UK solar generation since year end has been stellar (ha ha), who would have thought it at 55 degrees north. NESF cash flow should be ahead of budget.

[bountyhunter] 19/6/2023 10:32

Starmer probably doesn't even know himself.
A lot of the spin seems to be around wind turbines :)

[gonsan] 19/6/2023 10:15

Has anybody have any idea on how this proposal from Labour on creating a "GB Energy" company would impact companies like NESF and other renewable companies?
Here below an extract from this BBC news link:


"Sir Keir will say: "Labour will deliver lower bills, good jobs, and energy security for Scotland and the whole UK, as Britain leads the world in the fight against climate change."

One of Labour's initiatives will be to provide more incentives for areas to take part in new clean energy projects. Under Labour's plans, GB Energy - the new publicly-owned firm based in Scotland at a location yet to be decided - would play a key role in getting that message across.

It would oversee the return of profits from successful projects to local councils. The councils could then use that income to reduce council tax, pay for improved public services or simply provide rebates on energy bills.

Labour says GB Energy could end up providing up to £600m per year to local councils to invest in green infrastructure and a further £400m annually in low interest loans for community projects.

These community loans would be designed to ensure small projects could benefit from the expertise of GB Energy while also generating money for local areas."

[nerja] 19/6/2023 09:13

Thanks for that mwj1959, that’s the part that gets me, if the fixed was higher than the 1x-1.1x then fine but the energy prices are going down as can be seen from the 21.7p drop to 8.2p now, the cost of servicing the debt is up, they are trying to sell off stuff to raise money to try to clear debt, I am just trying to clarify how it works like that.

[mwj1959] 19/6/2023 08:53

The 8.35p is for the next FY, so not a comparison with current 8.2p earnings. As the say in statement "Forecasted target cash dividend cover of 1.3x-1.5x, of which 1x-1.1x is from fixed revenues for the financial year ending 31 March 2024."

[nerja] 19/6/2023 08:40

Sorry woodhawk copy and paste mistake but you must see what I am getting at with their figures, they don’t appear to add up again.

[wallywoo] 19/6/2023 08:38

Nice steady results, imo. The share price behaviour implied there would be bad news coming today. But I see nothing. This remains a nice defensive play with a great dividend. Good place to be, in what I expect to be very choppy markets.

[woodhawk] 19/6/2023 08:30

Seems some people can't even report figures correctly. Divi increase is NOT 1% Nerja.

"11% dividend target increase to 8.35p per share for the financial year ending 31 March 2024"

[nerja] 19/6/2023 08:21

Earnings per ordinary share of 8.2p (31 March 2022: 21.7p).

1% dividend target increase to 8.35p per share for the financial year ending 31 March 2024.

Weighted average cost of capital of 5.7% (31 March 2022: 5.3%).

Maybe it’s me but after tha last mess up, earnings down a lot only 8.2p but they aim for 8.35p divi and dept service up?

[tuftymatt] 19/6/2023 07:49

Very positive so let's see if it can kick start the share price climb.

Should be above 110 in my opinion so maybe this and what Labour have come out with can help?

Good luck all 👍🏻

[masurenguy] 19/6/2023 07:20

Full Year Results for period ended 31 March 2023

Portfolio continues to outperform, 11% dividend target increase well placed to deliver shareholders attractive, inflation-protected income

Financial Highlights:

Net Asset Value ("NAV") and Capital Position:

-- NAV per ordinary share increased to 114.3p (31 March 2022, as reported: 113.5p).
-- Ordinary shareholders' NAV increased to £674.4m (31 March 2022, as reported: £668.5m).
-- Ordinary shareholder annualised total return for the year of 8.6% (31 March 2022: 11%).
-- Earnings per ordinary share of 8.2p (31 March 2022: 21.7p).
-- Total gearing (including preference shares) of 45% (31 March 2022: 42%).
-- Weighted average cost of capital of 5.7% (31 March 2022: 5.3%).
-- Weighted average discount rate of 7.3% (31 March 2022: 6.3%).

Dividend:

-- Total dividend of 7.52p per ordinary share declared for the period (31 March 2022: 7.16p).
-- Cash dividend cover for the period 1.4x (31 March 2023: 1.2x).
-- 11% dividend target increase to 8.35p per share for the financial year ending 31 March 2024.
-- Forecasted target cash dividend cover of 1.3x-1.5x, of which 1x-1.1x is from fixed revenues for the financial year ending 31 March 2024.
-- Total dividends declared since IPO of £305.8m or 55.72p per share.

Kevin Lyon, Chairman of NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited, commented: "The twelve months to 31 March 2023 were a productive period as the Company made strong progress across various strategic initiatives announced during the year to generate value and provide future growth for investors. It is a real testament to the Company's performance during the period that we were able to announce an 11% dividend target increase to 8.35p per share, which remains well covered as one of the largest dividend increases in the peer group."

[wallywoo] 15/6/2023 16:30

Bgt back in here today. With the results coming on Monday, I hope something there will give the share price a boost.

[tuftymatt] 24/5/2023 21:46

Yeah I keep picking up more here and am encouraged by the tight range too since ex divi.

Elsewhere it's like a bloodbath!!

Good luck all 👍🏻

[woodhawk] 24/5/2023 16:26

Good to see NESF holding up well while most of my portfolio is taking a brutal kicking today. Still at least your potential yield rises at lower prices. My current portfolio yielded divis at about 7% last year (all reinvested) and is targeting 8% for 2023-4.

[tuftymatt] 18/5/2023 08:16

Well I take the opening price action as a good sign considering it's gone ex divi 👍🏻

[woodhawk] 17/5/2023 22:26

Time will tell. In the meantime, I'll back my own judgement and - if I think any post-divi fall excessive, I'll surely be adding to my modest pile. I've got some elbow room as 33% of my holding is from previous profits and divis - most accrued by ignoring overly pessimistic posters claiming to be shareholders, apparently looking to help "us all"... lol.

[marktime1231] 17/5/2023 22:15

Even if you are here for income rather than NAV growth, NAV movement is not irrelevant, and not just when issuing new stock. A falling NAV might imperil access to lines of credit which are subject to gearing covenants, for example.

In this instance a falling and discounted NAV is relevant because NESF is putting five assets to the ultimate test of value, eg trying to sell them for a good price on the open market. If the prices realised are weak we will not be getting much bang for having to suffer the consequential loss of income. The combination of ex-div tomorrow and fears about this strategy, which feels like a sale under pressure in order to fund future development commitments, could skew perception of risk-reward and put the skids under the share price

The dividend is attractive, yes, but that appeal might be luring us in to trouble if a sale of significant assets leaves us short of income for who knows how long before new developments are commissioned.

[petersinthemarket] 17/5/2023 17:37

Thanks for comments guys

[fishbournetrader] 17/5/2023 16:40

I always take the NAV of all of these renewable energy trusts with a pinch of salt. They are calculated using a lot of predictions and assumptions.
I purchase these stocks to obtain a long term income that should grow with inflation.
The yield and dividend cover are the most important thing for me so I am happy if the share price stays low as I am a buyer not a seller.
The one thing where a discount to NAV is bad is if the company wishes to raise money to purchase more assets by issuing more shares. This is not going to happen if there is a big discount to NAV.

[tag57] 17/5/2023 15:50

Dividend growing too

[tonytyke2] 17/5/2023 15:27

IMO...Diversification, stonking dividend, discount to NAV, and when I bought, discount to peer group........

EDIT
Just to add the stocko indicates a stockrank of 88 with a value score of 86. It passes one screen Piotroski F-Score Price to Earnings Value Screen (Value Investing).

[woodhawk] 17/5/2023 13:59

You claim to be a holder. Clearly you are unhappy with current events, so perhaps you should just move on? I'm here from the growing divy and the positive steps the company has taken to alleviate the undervaluation situation. Undervaluation is currently endemic in the market, imo, and thus a great time for income seekers like me.

[melloteam] 17/5/2023 13:20

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