Nb Distressed Debt Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 22/3/2017 17:52

I would be absolutely amazed if it is. I can see it now, they will invest the final funds on 31st March to the penny, less their fees.

[skyship] 22/3/2017 16:14

12:24 - a 700k trade @ 79p - a better sized buyback hopefully...

[luckymouse] 08/3/2017 12:18

Well, technically its gone from oversold to overbought and reached its range reversion to mean level - so trader types will tend to be exiting here which you can see on the money flow. For some assets that's all you get and for others after a consolidation it goes on to 100% - SKY knows the fundamentals and can prob advise if a leg2 is likely

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 08/3/2017 11:57

Now come on Tilts, you're allowing yourself to be a tad too curmudgeonly with NBDG. As you always used to point out, the GRY actually pans out better than first calculated (or I correctly did!) due to the early repayments.

I know we are both in nicely profitable positions here due to averaging purchases lower down; but I will certainly continue to run those profits due to:

1. the currency hedge

2. the likelihood of some early repayment, possibly including un-invested capital

3. a GRY of 10.5% to a projected 110p for 3yrs to 31st Mar'20. Even just a return to par would deliver 7.12%

jimB - I for one would certainly top-up if I weren't already well over my normal MAX...

[tiltonboy] 08/3/2017 10:45

Much depends on how long the harvest period will go on. Perhaps me being cynical, but I bet they try and run the assets as long as they can, so as to keep the fees rolling in.

Additionally, my faith in their abilities to achieve profitable exits has been severely dented following some disastrous investments.

[jimbowen30] 08/3/2017 10:29

What are people's thoughts here? Attract time to top up?

[sharpshare] 08/3/2017 09:57

NAV 95.82p at close on 7 March 2017
80.73p trading this morning
so 15.09p discount equating to 15.75% discount to NAV
fund in harvest mode in 3 weeks!

[nk104] 07/3/2017 12:03

Yep, saw that and have nibbled with a small interest.

[skyship] 07/3/2017 10:04

Due to the weak £ the NAV now up to 95.77p and the Discount up to 15.42% @ 81p

[skyship] 13/2/2017 07:38

First buyback for quite some time:
=================================

13 February 2017

NB Distressed Debt Investment Fund Limited

Transaction in Own Shares

The Company announces that pursuant to the general authority granted by shareholders of the Company on 24 August 2016 to make market purchases of its own New Global ordinary share capital ("New Global Shares") it repurchased 50,000 New Global Shares at a price of 79.90 pence per New Global Share, to be held in Treasury, on 10 February 2017. This represents approximately 0.045 per cent of the Company's current issued New Global Shares.

[tiltonboy] 10/2/2017 16:17

Do you trust the earlier investments though!

[skyship] 10/2/2017 16:13

I'm in at an average of 68.4p, thnx to buying more on that absurd dip to the low 60's.

With an NAV of c94p currently; and with c20% being invested in Q4'16 & Q1'17, it is surely unlikely that anything less than 110p will be the final result. A return of 7.5%pa on that 20% alone would provide another 5p of upside over 3yrs...

[courant] 10/2/2017 15:59

I'm cautious on the NAV return here, if this returns par, this would be fine for me and I base my purchasing decisions based on that. I have the luxury of a entry point around 65p.

[tiltonboy] 10/2/2017 13:20

My enthusiasm has been tempered by subsequent events. I would be delighted with 110p.

[skyship] 10/2/2017 11:07

jim - yes, NBDG is my largest holding at 15% allocation - this versus my usual MAX of 10%. So, very confident that they will recover par ...and then some. I believe Tilts was, and perhaps is still, going for a higher return than 110p.

Ie, thanks to currency moves and the discount, the return from here is very acceptable. But, at the end of the process, the Managers will have delivered a pretty lamentable performance - hence Tilts' justifiable opinion on their overall competence.

[jimbowen30] 10/2/2017 10:12

Sky
How confident are you they will deliver 110p? Is this one of your largest positions?
Thanks
Jim

[skyship] 10/2/2017 10:09

NB - they give us a 7%GRY even if they only deliver par...

[redhill9] 10/2/2017 09:36

tiltonboy, I appreciate your judgement on these matters but surely the current discount to NAV reflects any uncertainty about management (as discounts usually do) and, assuming the declared NAV is reliable, the prospects from here are low risk with the potential for an appealing gain over the next couple of years or so?

Edit: crossed with Skyship's post.

[skyship] 10/2/2017 09:32

Tilts - True - but even I have to admit to taking a loss on occasions!

Agreed in principle however.

NB Partners lauded as such a talented operation controlling $26bn in funds, but their managers here haven't done their reputation much good. That said, they state: “We remain confident about the investments in the portfolio and the ability to generate positive returns from the current valuations.”

Of course, would certainly hope so, so that statement is rather nuanced, rather irrelevant actually.

Still, we should see 110p+; so take an average of 3yrs to 31/03/20, then for a target of 110p the GRY at 81p = 10.25%.

Am happy to hold for that…

[cockerhoop] 10/2/2017 09:24

Isn't that like any portfolio though Tiltonboy, you get out performers and under performers. I've certainly had shares that I've held for 2 and a half years and lost money.

The nature of the distressed debt asset class must mean that there has to be an element of doubt in any purchase.

[tiltonboy] 10/2/2017 09:11

SKYSHIP,

It's not that investment per se, it's their ability to invest!

They invested 6% of NAV in the company, held it for two and a half years, and lost money!

Do we really trust them to invest the remaining funds!

Can't wait to get out of this shambles.

[skyship] 10/2/2017 08:55

No problem there surely. Postion closed with just a small write-off of 0.4m - nothing in the scheme of things. Perhaps you read the Total return as the total remittance rather than the return on investment (ie loss) it actually is!

[tiltonboy] 10/2/2017 08:05

I wouldn't trust them to invest the money, but you can bet your bottom $ that they will be fully invested by 31st March, so they can rake in maximum fees.

This concerns me:

Exit 8

NBDG purchased AUD 21.3 million face value bank debt secured by a concession to operate a toll road linking Brisbane's central business district with its airport. In 2013, the operator had been forced into an insolvency process when restructuring negotiations fell apart amidst poor traffic numbers. NBDG purchased the bank debt when a sale of the concession failed to materialise and caused certain original bank holders to exit. NBDG sold the majority of the position to reduce exposure after another debt holder amassed a position that would allow them to block a sale of the concession. The concession was ultimately sold in early 2016 to a strategic buyer who owned other Australian toll roads. Sale proceeds were unfortunately less than expected. The total return was (GBP0.4 million) with an IRR of (11%) on the investment and a ROR of (7%).