Nahl Share Discussion Threads

[oniabsta] 25/9/2014 12:59

Don't share your sentiments jonwig, but thats what makes a mkt.
Loaded up on these, it's going to be a great income stock.
ESE have 300p share price trgt.

[jonwig] 23/9/2014 08:55

No posters here have mentioned the risk factors. I'd say there's a real danger that CMRU will tighten regulation and cut off some of the main avenues of business. Also the insurance industry might be a powerful enough lobby to achieve this end.

(Maybe the Edison notes mentioned it - I'm reading from the prospectus.)

Whilst this won't affect me, as I thoroughly dislike this kind of business, it might guarantee a low rating and high yield.

[snadgey] 23/9/2014 08:22

At first glance - reasonable results and 5p divi (est 15p for year).

Share price may rally as a result and to the ex-div date, but then we have the stock overhang looming end Nov/early Dec....

[snadgey] 29/8/2014 21:35

Yes, large drop today. Hit this level mid July and shortly bounced back. Be interesting to see whether same happens here. Waiting for results and outcome of stock overhang. If results are good then the overhang could offer a tempting prospect!

[joan of arc] 29/8/2014 18:53

Someone dumping these big time.

[joan of arc] 16/8/2014 10:10

Thanks again. Yes I do take Edison reports but I don't recall that one. I'll check it out.

Yes, I found it at the bottom of pg 10 as the last comment on the June 13 review.

"Lloyds Development Capital (LDC) and Inflexion, both private equity firms that invested in the group in 2006 and 2009 respectively, were selling shareholders on the group's IPO, and have each retained a holding of 15% of the group's share capital. Both LDC and Inflexion have agreed to a lock-in period of six months, while the group's directors and certain senior management plus Alan Kennedy, an original founder of the group, (with a combined stake of 27.8%) have agreed to a lock-in period of 12 months."

[snadgey] 15/8/2014 21:06

pretty large I think. If I recall the Edison note, then 2 private equity firms have 15% each and directors total about 40%. Please check - you can register free for the Edison reports. They are paid for by the Companies so potential for bias but all in all I find them a useful addition to gauging a company. Clearly Edison were not biased enough to not mention this stock overhang risks here. As ever dyor.

[joan of arc] 15/8/2014 09:52

Snadgey, Thanks. Do you know what the potential overhang is?

[snadgey] 15/8/2014 08:16

Private equity 6 mths (end Nov), directors 12 months (end May 2015).

[joan of arc] 13/8/2014 18:41

Does anyone know anything about the post IPO lock ins and when they expire?

[hvs] 15/7/2014 19:56

Its waiting to be shorted.

[simon gordon] 15/7/2014 19:49

=====

City Insights - June 2014:

NAHL Group is a well known and strongly branded B2C marketing services company through National Accident Helpline and its Underdog character. Operating in the £3 billion Personal Injury (PI) sector, it has a 20 year track record and a leading position in an industry that is closely regulated. The Group has demonstrated a strong historic financial performance, with the adjusted operating margin increasing from 17.5% in FY12 to 24.8% in FY13. Cash conversion is about 100%, and NAHL has committed to a progressive dividend policy that will pay out two-thirds of retained earnings, starting with a first interim dividend in November. The forecast yield for FY14 is 7.06% at 204p.

[joan of arc] 15/7/2014 10:06

Looks like a leak of bad news!

[oniabsta] 12/7/2014 19:01

Good point

[n3tleylucas] 12/7/2014 18:54

That's maybe what ESIB are waiting for.

[oniabsta] 12/7/2014 18:50

according to the City insights note we have a trading update coming on the 17th, although it does say tbc (to be confirmed)Has the potential to move the share price, up or down.
In the meantime i've taken a decent initial holding in the hope it's positive for the sp

Espirito santo research time bar ended on 28th June so could be any day now

[n3tleylucas] 12/7/2014 16:18

Yeah cheers, that must be based on Edison.

The only real numbers we've got are Edison's, repeated by City Insights.

2014 - 14.4
2015 - 16.8

Could do with Execution Noble & Company Limited, trading as Espirito Santo Investment Bank banging a note out.

[n3tleylucas] 07/7/2014 21:59

So? Are we going with Ed's 14p div FY 14?

[petralva] 07/7/2014 18:14

The problem with edison reports is that they are not independent, the company pays for it......

[snadgey] 07/7/2014 17:50

The Edison and City Insights research notes are both on the nahl website. Both make interesting reading.

IMS due 17 July.

[brianbadonde] 30/6/2014 07:18

NAHL Group (NAH LN, 203.37p, Buy, FV 300.00p) Growth and Value and Dividend YieldWe initiate coverage of NAHL Group with a Buy recommendation and fair value of 300p giving 48% upside. NAHL Group is a leading marketing services provider for the Personal Injury industry operating under the National Accident Helpline brand and Underdog character. NAHL Group offers its panel of law firms a consistent and high quality mix of enquiries and other related products. NAHL Group is a direct response marketing company, responding to incoming contacts, never cold calling, and fully compliant with all regulations. The market remains fragmented and growth opportunities exist from increasing market share, gradually raising revenues from panel members, extending existing services further and moving into adjacent markets. We forecast continuing revenue and net income CAGR 2013-2016e of 7.4% and 40.7% respectively and value the Group at 300p based on discounted comparative B2C multiples of 10.4x EV/EBITDA and 14.0x P/E for 2014e. We also forecast a dividend yield of 7.2% for 2014e rising to 8.0% in 2015e with a continuing FCF yield of 10.5% and 11.9%, respectively.

[fillipe] 13/6/2014 11:56

There's a report out on NAHL (NAH) today, by Edison



I expect there'll be some interest here, given the future yield attraction and that so far NAH haven't moved much from the May 2014 £2 placing price.

f

[n3tleylucas] 04/6/2014 14:49

NAHL Group plc is a leading UK consumer marketing business focused on the UK personal injury market, advertising through its core brand – National Accident Helpline. Established in 1993, the Group's business has grown to an industry-leading position as an outsourced marketing services provider.



DIVIDEND POLICY

The Directors intend to adopt a progressive policy of paying dividends while maintaining a prudent level of dividend cover for the Group. Reflecting the Group's historically high cash conversion ratio, and assuming sufficient distributable reserves, the Directors intend to target a dividend of approximately 66 per cent. of retained profits in each financial year, including the year ending 31 December 2014. The Directors propose to pay an interim dividend and a final dividend in respect of each financial year in the approximate proportions of one third and two thirds of the total annual dividend, respectively. The first interim dividend payment is expected to be paid in November 2014 following the Company's 2014 half year results.