Another bid for a Chris Mills holding (TENG)
Perhaps this one could be next under the hammer! |
Bought APH today |
On current trading, Bush & Co is likely worth c.£40m, so NAHL is in the category of companies that could realistically return close to its current market cap to investors over the next 12 months. This market really is a goldmine of hidden treasures |
Appologies it was 6.15 for FY24 I was confusing FY23/24 with your FY24/25. I'll try and get the allenby note.
Got the note now and yes they forecast 11.3p EPS for FY25. |
My Stockopedia showing 6.15p EPS for FY24? And no figure shown for FY25. Allenby are the only broker with numbers in the market, so Stocko must be pulling its forecasts from them. Management have been very conservative with estimates for a couple of years now, and hitting the forecasts they have put in the market through Allenby is important to them. As a long term holder, it really is satisfying to see the strategy come towards fruition |
Hope you are right but Stocko forecasts are nothing like as high as that. |
I think it's becoming clear that they are on track to hit the numbers they've put out in the Allenby research? EPS of 6p+ FY24 and 11p FY25, with £3-4m+ of free cash flow. No recession risk etc. In this market, predictable and stable businesses like this are increasingly attractive. Plus a very limited supply of shares available... |
Why the rise yesterday any news I missed? |
New multi-year high |
That's possible. I think Bush will be sold before then but we'll see. |
Debt-free with 11p of earnings in two years time, i've seen touted! |
I think the results were good but inline. Still a debt pay down game but good to see they estimate the GP of the claims book being not much less than the outstandind debt. I think this will be a slow burn unless and until they sell the Bush business probabably to Frenkle Topping.
There has been a lot of inflation in motor claims recently so this might also help feed through to them a little in claim sizes.
Happy to hold until then. |
Not many following it.
Allenby has fair value at 65p. |
no one commenting about the update-why |
update sounds good |
Out with profit & bought GATC |
why the spike up -frustrating when we are in the dark with aim shares |
Bought a few |
That strikes me as just over 3% (3.4ish). Hence we should have a TR-1 in the next couple of days. |
Huge 1.6m trade gone through £755,000 worth. |
Allenby note summary...
"Strategy on track. Full year results expected to be in line
In its first half trading update, NAHL continued to progress across all principal aspects of its strategic plan, with an encouraging 13% reduction in net debt. Although the personal injury (PI) market in the UK contracted by around 1%, NAHL’s enquiry levels were comparable with H1 22 suggesting a continuation of market share gains. Activity levels in Critical Care continued to grow with a 15% increase in expert witness reports issued and a 5% increase in initial needs assessments (INAs) completed in the six months. Despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment, full year results are expected to be in line with market expectations and we continue to believe the share price seriously undervalues the business. Fair value remains at 65p." |
Don't be daft Blackhorse the results were pretty good and at least inline. The number that matters is how much debt they are paying off which was impressive. Once the debt is down then they can sell the claims buiness and clear the rest of the debt and be net cash. That leaves them with very profitable Bush which is worth at least the market cap right now. |
Disappointing results |
Well I ripped into NAH on the presentation of the final results, my post 741 22/3/23. These are a joy to behold in comparison. I just hope that the full year figures can be presented in an equally clear manner. |
Allenby
NAHL Group plc: AGM update: Continued progress in scaling the business for future growth
NAHL’s AGM statement released today, is encouraging as management continues to scale the businesses for further growth. As a result, the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged and we make no alterations to our forecasts. As a reminder, these still call for a c.13% increase in adjusted PBT in 2023, c.170% in FY24 and a further c.70% in FY25. Our current fair value remains at 65p but this is likely to rise as the Group delivers on its significant potential. |
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