MWB Group Share Discussion Threads

[factsonly] 09/8/2002 08:27

I think they'll get more than 100% of NAV on disposing of Liberty interests and malmaison chain... big disposals.

[verdley] 06/8/2002 18:01

SLL - Thanks about the equity - missed that - factoring this in, makes little difference in NAV/share at the 80% recovery rate (cash at 80p - vs dilution at at 90p)

My point is that at current levels, there looks to be little downside (on a static view). The risk is that they can't realise 80% of the asset values.

What I don't have is exact figures on how much they are outperforming. i.e. are they getting 100% of valuation?

Also, haven't looked at their contingent liabilities (either reported or not reported)

Also, (also) the shares are fairly closely held and these shareholders know more than is in the public domain. On the other hand, the management are well incentivised to achieve £2 a share. To do this, they need to achieve a recovery of around 107% of valuation (I think)

[factsonly] 06/8/2002 17:57

You've left out:
1) Profits/expected income from business trading/activity
2) Some of the outstanding profit share of disposed businesses/assets
3) Expected dividends from investments

These should easily make up from the £2/share even after dilution imho.

[sll] 06/8/2002 16:53

Verdley - good post, will check your numbers, for now - quick thoughts re possible missed/querysome points -

1. new equity in second half of y/e Jun2002 - some £20m at 80p per share, ie cash in (good) dilution of 25million shares (less good)
2. trading activities (net outcome) in second half year ??
3. 80% factor seems harsh given that they wrote assets down at 31/12/01 and are out-performing in realisations so far.

In haste

[verdley] 06/8/2002 13:04

Did some analysis, based on 31/12/01 interims, plus known events (disposals)as follows:
Tangible assets (fixed plus investment) £539Mio less £94Mio dispoals
Intangibles - £30Mio
Cash - £60Mio plus £94Mio from dispoals
Debtors and stock - £79Mio

Creditors - £414Mio
Prefs/minorities - £68Mio

If you assume recovery of 100% of cash 0% for intangibles and 80% for all other assets, repaying creditors and Prefs/minorities gives a net realisable value of £91Mio, or about £0.90 per share. Key variable is: can they get 80% return on tangible assets. What did I miss?

[sll] 06/8/2002 11:05

F - tend to agree, but can we get off this cr*p thread?

[factsonly] 06/8/2002 09:32

Yet another disposal announced a fortnight after the previous disposal. Things are looking good.

[factsonly] 26/7/2002 10:08

Another disposal albeit a small one, it seems MWB are working hard to keep to their word of returning £2/share.

[factsonly] 15/7/2002 15:28

LOL. You taken a short position again? I'll laugh if support for this stock suddenly appears, all they have to do is announce another disposal to demonstarte their plans are progressing well. Tempted to dip in and pick up a fair wedge of shares myself. Even if they achieve only 75% of their target disposal price, that is £1.50, a nice premium. So in a sense, I hope there is more selling, so I can pick up even cheaper stock.

[praline] 15/7/2002 13:20

new lows for this share being reached minute by minute despite two recent disposals to reduce debt - the market knows that these are drops in the ocean and that the company will never be able to clear its debts, never mind pay £2 per share to holders - what a ludicrous suggestion! Sell before you lose everything.

[factsonly] 30/6/2002 18:39

95% of 55 Park Lane Development has been sold... and it's not even been completed yet. At circa £1,000 per square foot (I think prices were from £475k to £4.2m per apartment, with 1 to 4 bedroom apartments and penthouse available). Also noticed yesterday that trade at the Liberty store was nice and brisk. MWB might be achieving its £2 per share promise quicker than it expected.

[sll] 17/6/2002 20:26

ps - the last chance to get back in at sub £1 is just about to expire......

[sll] 10/6/2002 16:16

xad - The picture is becoming just a little clearer after today's news re Jupiter. I believe this stock is now a screaming buy (again) ahead of the June finals. I have been in and out twice now since 2001 and got back in on Friday after it dipped (with the market). Won't risk exiting again for a bit now, as I believe the bad news is more than in the price. The next moves up could be in 5p instalments. I've seen this before with MWB.

[xad] 31/5/2002 15:19

The price was marked up at the beginning of the day and nothing happened for a while. Then there were five separate mid price agency cross trades over a three hour period that totaled exactly one million shares. Then the price went up a little more. Mmmmm...

[cat] 31/5/2002 14:52

starting to run again

[factsonly] 24/5/2002 13:07

Now that the EGM is out of the way, all uncertainty has gone and we should be able to look forward to stable growth/gains.

[sll] 20/5/2002 00:14

ps - have you got a fax number?

[xad] 19/5/2002 19:35

Not one that I want to make public, but thanks anyway.

[xad] 19/5/2002 00:56

SLL
Do you have a link to the Deutsche Bank report?

[sll] 18/5/2002 23:12

No its hard copy only xad,

[sll] 18/5/2002 10:49

F. - I have recently received a copy of Deutsche Bank's 15 page detailed 'equity research' analysis on MWB which is fairly bullish - medium term. Their near term target for the stock is only 125p, but they appear fairly convinced by the recently outlined realisation strategy and they also like the team outsourcing, built in cost reduction and previous bonus buy out arrangements that mean the top team now only get their maximum capped reward (equivalent to 11p per share) once 223p has been returned to shareholders. Indeed the senior 3 in that team get no bonus under the new deal until 'distributions exceed 200p per share'. At present pricing, MWB is a screaming buy for anyone who wants a fairly sure return of between 50% and 100% over 4 years. Don't forget, the top 3 are major shareholders and as such have aligned there interests fully with minnows like me. I hold and will watch this story develop with great interest.

[factsonly] 07/5/2002 19:38

That's one way of looking at it, but remember they've outsourced a part of the business to another company which is owned by... guess who?

[sll] 07/5/2002 07:14

This has been on my long list for some time and I topped up recently. The Xad point above is quite significant.

[melfaraj] 05/5/2002 16:35

technically, it has been consolidating over an extended period which means all being well it is ripe for a breakout particularly now that interest in the real estate sector has been mounting for some time. well worth having on anyone's short list.

[xad] 05/5/2002 15:06

It gets better. The executive directors do not start to benefit from the incentive scheme until after the first 200p has been distributed.