Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 22/3/2023 10:20

In January they said their closing order book for the year was £69m, results today they said it was £67.2m, why the discrepancy?.Also, thought their eps forecast for the year was 14p, fair play though as didn't think they'd even make 13.3p.Even excluding the £2m pension deficit payments this is on a PE of 19x.

[fuji99] 22/3/2023 09:52

Mpac results is just a confirmation of the symptoms of a stagnating economy worldwide. The banking turmoil is now going to put stronger breaks on investment as was shown by Amazon, Google and many others in various sectors. IMO we will have a stagnating growth in 2023 and beyond unless the banking sector is stablised and the Ukraine conflict resolved. Geopolitical issues with China aligning with Russia are going to make life difficult and kill the global economy if the world is dividing in economic blocks.

[disc0dave45] 22/3/2023 09:19

Massively over valued.

[my retirement fund] 22/3/2023 08:57

Unrepresentative. Freyr contract excitement gradually being managed downwards. Unsurprisingly share price marked down, could sell off lot more in coming weeks imo

[edmonda] 22/3/2023 07:44

New research note with audio summary from Equity Development:

FY22 results show a platform for growth - For the year to 31 December 2022, Mpac Group reported revenue of £97.7m, +3.6%YoY, EBITDA (adj.) of £6.8m, ahead of our outlook, -39.3%YoY, and PBT of £3.5m. Service revenue grew 14.4%YoY to 23.6% of the total. The year-end closing order book was £67.2m (FY21: £78.4m). Net debt was £4.7m, which we expect to revert to a £7.5m net cash position in FY23

Orders underpin FY23 earnings visibility - The FY22 closing order book was £67.2m with order intake at £83.8m, compared to £83.9m in FY20 and £117.9m in FY21. By FY24 we expect a return to top line growth of above 10%YoY and EBITDA growth of above 30%YoY, with revenue from Service approaching 30% of total.

Supply chain pressure eases - As expected, Mpac required additional working capital in order to meet customer expectations and offset the impact of supply chain disruption. This amounted to £17.8m (our estimate: £18.7m), including inventory build to £9.6m. We forecast this to unwind as the backlog of projects completes in H1 23; Mpac reports that contract assets – projects awaiting final factory sign-off – peaked in Q4 22 as the supply of key electrical components improved, allowing project completion prior to shipment. Cashflow was also constrained by the timing of customer deposits carried over into FY23. We expect working capital to improve to above £3m, and FY22 net debt of £4.7m to revert towards an estimated 31 Dec 2023 net cash position of £7.5m. Mpac continued to progress development of casting and unit cell assembly equipment for the battery cell production line at FREYR’s Battery Customer Qualification Plant in Norway. Agreed changes resulted in a revised plan for delivery in Q1 23, and commissioning in Q2 23.

Appointment of new CEO - Tony Steels, who has led the Group since 2016, has announced his retirement. COO Adam Holland will become CEO post-AGM on 17 May. Adam joined Mpac in late 2022 having held senior positions worldwide at JCB, Siemens AG and Rolls-Royce.

Fair value remains 485p - Following the January 16th Trading Update we raised our FY23 revenue outlook from £103.6m to £104.7m, (adj.) EBITDA by 13% to £9.6m, and our FY24 revenue outlook from £113.4m to £115.8m, with (adj.) EBITDA from £12.9m to £13.0m (see note here). We retain these estimates. Our fair value for Mpac remains 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x.

[edmonda] 22/3/2023 07:44

New research note with audio summary from Equity Development:

FY22 results show a platform for growth - For the year to 31 December 2022, Mpac Group reported revenue of £97.7m, +3.6%YoY, EBITDA (adj.) of £6.8m, ahead of our outlook, -39.3%YoY, and PBT of £3.5m. Service revenue grew 14.4%YoY to 23.6% of the total. The year-end closing order book was £67.2m (FY21: £78.4m). Net debt was £4.7m, which we expect to revert to a £7.5m net cash position in FY23

Orders underpin FY23 earnings visibility - The FY22 closing order book was £67.2m with order intake at £83.8m, compared to £83.9m in FY20 and £117.9m in FY21. By FY24 we expect a return to top line growth of above 10%YoY and EBITDA growth of above 30%YoY, with revenue from Service approaching 30% of total.

Supply chain pressure eases - As expected, Mpac required additional working capital in order to meet customer expectations and offset the impact of supply chain disruption. This amounted to £17.8m (our estimate: £18.7m), including inventory build to £9.6m. We forecast this to unwind as the backlog of projects completes in H1 23; Mpac reports that contract assets – projects awaiting final factory sign-off – peaked in Q4 22 as the supply of key electrical components improved, allowing project completion prior to shipment. Cashflow was also constrained by the timing of customer deposits carried over into FY23. We expect working capital to improve to above £3m, and FY22 net debt of £4.7m to revert towards an estimated 31 Dec 2023 net cash position of £7.5m. Mpac continued to progress development of casting and unit cell assembly equipment for the battery cell production line at FREYR’s Battery Customer Qualification Plant in Norway. Agreed changes resulted in a revised plan for delivery in Q1 23, and commissioning in Q2 23.

Appointment of new CEO - Tony Steels, who has led the Group since 2016, has announced his retirement. COO Adam Holland will become CEO post-AGM on 17 May. Adam joined Mpac in late 2022 having held senior positions worldwide at JCB, Siemens AG and Rolls-Royce.

Fair value remains 485p - Following the January 16th Trading Update we raised our FY23 revenue outlook from £103.6m to £104.7m, (adj.) EBITDA by 13% to £9.6m, and our FY24 revenue outlook from £113.4m to £115.8m, with (adj.) EBITDA from £12.9m to £13.0m (see note here). We retain these estimates. Our fair value for Mpac remains 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x.

[c1d] 10/3/2023 10:50

Encouraging (IMV) confirmatory comment about Mpac in Freyr annual report:
"Mpac has collaborated with FREYR on automated solutions for the Company’s CQP, and together the two companies will now transfer this knowledge to the planned Giga Arctic facility."

[mfhmfh] 07/3/2023 18:45

hxxps://rethinkresearch.biz/articles/freyr-on-track-as-remains-of-britishvolt-are-sold-off/

[castleford tiger] 07/3/2023 17:52

50% up now in quick sticks

[gorse] 27/2/2023 22:10

Darrin - rising gilts and interest rates means that future liabilities are discounted more heavily (I agree there may be temporary mark-to-market losses on the assets side).

[darrin1471] 27/2/2023 14:37

"With factory acceptance testing completed and final equipment installations nearing completion, FREYR is on track to commence operations at the Customer Qualification Plant (“CQP”) in the first quarter of 2023 as previously communicated"

[darrin1471] 27/2/2023 12:40

FREYR "exploring fast-track options to establish rapid production at Giga America in 2025"

[darrin1471] 27/2/2023 11:39

"FREYR announces the formal opening of the CQP on March 28th 2023"

hxxps://ir.freyrbattery.com/events-and-presentations/presentations/default.aspx

[darrin1471] 27/2/2023 11:36

Gorse. Unsure. If pension already holds gilts do they have to mark to market their value? If they hold stock, will that of lost value over the last year?

[gorse] 27/2/2023 10:37

I presume that the rise in gilt rates over the last few weeks will help in reducing the pension deficit.

[castleford tiger] 21/2/2023 15:47

Took those trading shares out too early
This has been a much earlier spike than I saw coming but now back at fair value ( in my opinion ) until we see progress updates.
Tiger

[lucicavi] 21/2/2023 11:54

discodivvy u stull showrt

[our haven] 17/2/2023 09:30

Results out 22nd March I see.

[castleford tiger] 15/2/2023 08:53

Took a profit on the shares bought at 2.25 my core holding remains.
Any weakness will see me back bargain hunting.
Tiger

[disc0dave45] 14/2/2023 17:03

RedI was simply deducting their payments and costs (that will continue for another two years or so) from their bottom line earnings.Not got my figures wrong, as I've said numerous times now, it's your choice in making any rating / value assessment whether you do as I've done or not. I'd just prefer to do just that as it's a significant sum in comparison to their profits and I wouldn't consider it an exceptional expense that not accounted for, but clearly the market doesn't agree - so be it tbh.Hopefully holders will make a decent profit here it's just not an investment for me for other reasons too.

[redwing1] 14/2/2023 16:17

Disco - I think you have got your numbers wrong. If you look at last year's annual statement you will see that the pension fund is in surplus on an IAS 19 basis but contributions of £1.9m are still being made annually by MPAC to reflect the £35m deficit on a statutory basis. The deficit recovery period was reduced from 14 years to 6 years in 2018 and with bond yields moving favourably since then payments may actualy stop earlier still.

Obviously, MPACs earnings have been volatile for several years now but in a reasonable year the pension payment will only absorb about 20% of free cash flow and so I can't see where your prospective p/e number comes from?

[blackhorse23] 14/2/2023 14:10

Switched to CURY https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1005917/currys-focused-on-restoring-profitability-says-broker-1005917.html

[castleford tiger] 14/2/2023 12:18

Thanks disc0

[mfhmfh] 14/2/2023 11:37

Takeover target due to huge potential?