Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[edmonda] 12/9/2018 12:32

your chance to see the CEO and FD discuss the recent H1 results and outlook in detail.

25 mins interview with slides accessible here:

[richjp] 07/9/2018 11:43

Evil Knievel who I believe has a holding this, has just said that the total net asset value could be as high as 400P and that it is a stonking buy at anything below 150P.

[wiltshire sage] 07/9/2018 11:08

The share price reaction to these weak half year results is bizarre. MPac has reported losses, a cash outflow of £4.5m, and a mixed outlook. The cash pile is diminishing, and the £3m p/a outflow on the pension will continue to attrition this. MPac is a lumpy business with a huge pension problem. Any long-term shareholder value is questionable. Doesn't the market understand the difference between profits and cash flow?

[dr know] 06/9/2018 14:04

The midday rise is due to a positive Simon Thompson article in Chronic Investor, reaffirming a twelve month target of 225.

[profiting] 06/9/2018 13:57

Good post and clearly good potential going forward. Happy to hold for 175p target.

[edmonda] 06/9/2018 08:09

after today's H1 results , new research note 'Back on track' with unchanged forecasts and fair value has been published. Freely accessible here:

[pro_s2009] 30/7/2018 12:23

As per my earlier posts, which were ridiculed at the time but are of course turning out to be on the ball;

I was told clearly tobacco always propped up the other business (food packaging and MTECH).

Tobacco was always blamed for everything as its easy to blame tobacco, nobody questions anything if you say its tobacco so bad. Everything was dumped on tobacco to make it look worse so the other businesses looked better. Creative :) But tobacco was high tech high margin.

Remove tobacco and you are left with very low margin low tech food packaging, which very easily loses money due to overruns as projects not completed on time or to customer satisfaction and also an MTECH business which only makes money every so often when doing repeat orders, if they do first of a kind they lose money like no tomorrow.

So now you have two business which can both burn through cash. And forecasts now suggesting bigger reductions in cash. What does it tell you? It tells you the two business left no longer have tobacco to subsidize them and they are being caught with their pants down as the tide goes out.

[tsmith2] 27/7/2018 09:22

some but little support at that level. other than that 75-80p

[jay083] 26/7/2018 15:25

just had a read of equity developments latest note - not sure why they see cash falling so much this year (circ 5.5m yes pension payments, but assuming still profitable not sure where they see the rest going....any views?

[richjp] 24/7/2018 10:50

Evil Knievel has said last week he has added at 144P. He said it is an asset play with a break up value of over 200P.

Simon Thompson said that investors had over reacted to the news and that it was a buy at 140P.

I am staying in. What did disappoint me is that they used Brexit as an excuse and I did not think that was very convincing. I think the business they are in should be reasonably recession proof.

[tsmith2] 23/7/2018 13:34

Another leg down to 105-110 on chart..

[red5] 20/7/2018 17:25

I bought these after reading tip at IC Simon Thompson now nursing a 25% loss sold as now hit my stop loss so now into games workshop and computacenter

[castleford tiger] 19/7/2018 14:01

taken 10k out at 151.
Need to reduce my exposure here.

Tiger

[red army] 19/7/2018 12:11

Should get back to 160 as a lot of resistance there

[superbobtaylor] 19/7/2018 09:57

Good call SSR10!

SBT

[superslickrick10] 18/7/2018 23:12

The share price hit a brick wall at 35, I reckon we may see a bounce back tomorrow!

[davr0s] 18/7/2018 22:45

?! Haven't got time to argue with this nonsense

[eastbourne1982] 18/7/2018 22:06

DavR0s,

of course it was.

[wiltshire sage] 18/7/2018 17:12

Mpac is a low margin, lumpy business at best, as today's trading statement demonstrates. It has legacy issues, especially the pension, which will absorb cash for years. Expect to see the £29m cash pile substantially diminished at the half year results, and for this to continue. Mpac has to generate £3m + p/a just to cover the pension. A big ask! A value trap.

[davr0s] 18/7/2018 13:15

Nope - I trade for a living. 50% of my trades are losers (mostly small ones)I bought these at 150 area and sold just below 200 when trend broke - so this one was a winner

[pro_s2009] 18/7/2018 11:27

As I said in post 77.

Food packaging is very low margin and ultra competitive. It easy to win lots of projects and grow revenue but its not easy to deliver them on time and install on time.

Are the sales people selling profitable projects or are they just selling lots of low margin projects to bump up revenue.

Given the low margin and that all the good people left before MPAC came into being, you are left with lots of low margin revenue that cannot be installed profitably and so makes massive losses due to many cost overruns.

The worry would be that this will continue to a 2nd and 3rd profit warning and suddenly a big lump of the cash has been lost.

[eezymunny] 18/7/2018 11:25

Simon Cawkwell. On what basis do you say that?

This is useful to understand a little about why these pension fund valuations are so very different...

www.frc.org.uk/getattachment/538ec144-05a0-499c-99b4-3f93bd21ad0b/091117-Pension-Disclosures-CRR-thematic-review.pdf

From John Lewis "The actuarial valuation deficit of £479m
is used to judge the money we need to put into the pension scheme"

Well that actuarial deficit is £70m at MPAC (for the UK fund). If MPAC put that valuation into the balance sheet instead of the IAS19 valuation (I believe they have a choice?) then MPAC would be balance sheet insolvent, no?

I think you need to flesh out your opinion of why all is OK....as I said for the time being the current biz profits looks like they won't be able to fund agreed contributions and MPAC will have to dip into the cash pile...

I don't believe anyone is smart enough to know how these pension deficits will pan out but it looks very dangerous to me to take a "don't worry about it" approach...

[simon cawkwell] 18/7/2018 11:15

EM,

I very much doubt that the pension deficit is anything like as serious as you fear. Indeed, my bet is that there'll be a £15m surplus.

SC

[eastbourne1982] 18/7/2018 10:22

DavR0s,

You are always out before a profit warning.

Are you a fantasy investor ?