Mc Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 26/10/2023 23:34

These are key parts of report.

I would not say it will fly at all with 12 month TP of 21p that has caveats

Along way to go yet.

Debt and funding de-risking are important parts need to sorted to enhance value

[jailbird] 26/10/2023 23:32

Our forecasts show a negative corporate cash position (peaking at US$56.7m at the end of
FY2025), coinciding with the Makhado project’s peak funding requirement (estimated by
MCM at US$96m – details p10). Thus additional funding is required to add to the group’s
existing cash (US$7.5m at 30 June 2023).
In the ‘going concern’ assessment in MCM latest annual report (year to 30 June 2023), the
group included a series of funding assumptions that indicate the various options under
negotiation and/or consideration.
• Deferring the existing R160m IDC loan until Makhado is in steady state production
(as we assume above);
• the securing of convertible debt funding (we would assume convertible into equity)
of US$25m;
• production-based funding (we would assume off-take related) of US$25m;
• a prepayment of US$15.9m on the sale of hard coking coal;
• construction-based funding including a BOOT (build-own-operate-transfer)
arrangement with a contractor of R155m (US$8.2m);
• other debt/equity.
As noted above, we have not included any of these funding assumptions in our forecasts or
model. Clearly, the securing of additional debt with respect to Makhado would be valueenhancing to equity returns at the project level, and would reduce any future dilution at the
corporate level stemming from the need for additional equity.

[jailbird] 26/10/2023 23:32

COMPANY VALUATION
Our 12-month Target Price (TP) for MCM of 21p/shr is based on a sum-of-parts valuation,
including discounted cash flow valuations of its three principal assets (risk-weighted where
appropriate). Corporate overheads are included as a negative, on a discounted cash flow
basis, and we also allow for net cash/debt at 30 June 2023 (adjusted for the existing IDC loan
– see table footnotes below), in line with the start of the discounted cash flow analyses.
Our 12-month TP includes a risk-weighting that limits the Makhado project to 70% of its full
value, to take into account its undeveloped status (both in terms of execution risk and the
potential dilutive effects of its remaining funding requirements (details p7). We expect to
reduce this risk weighting as the project advances, and as additional funding is secured

[bengal1] 26/10/2023 22:30

And at last, the metallurgical coal is front and centre. This will fly.

[bengal1] 26/10/2023 22:19

Tennyson Equity Research Report uploaded on MCM website. Huge report extremely well prepared and written. Initiate BUY 21p per share to 112p per share (risk weighted valuation). Interesting timing backed up with quality work.

[jailbird] 26/10/2023 15:26

Funny you mention all buys but the damn share keeps falling Maybe when you menton all sells it might go up !

[bengal1] 26/10/2023 14:12

all buys. JSE sniffing for stock.

[purple11] 26/10/2023 11:38

can buy 20k @7.24. unable to offer quote to sell

market has no confidence and no buyers.

"In a bull market all stocks go up. In a bear market all stocks go down" J Livermore

[2bozmo] 25/10/2023 11:45

I'm assume this gets completed this quarter. We are ready to go. Ground work has started. Quarterly update and AGM over the next month. We'll know soon enough

[anynews] 25/10/2023 10:20

There's little doubt about funding for a conventional open pit minimal processing mine. It's just about the cost and terms of it which is becoming very demanding in a high interest and bond rate world.

[bengal1] 24/10/2023 16:54

Seaborne metallurgical coal prices spike as China and India ramp up steel production

[bengal1] 24/10/2023 13:20

Agreed. Not long!!!

[highly geared] 24/10/2023 13:13

Boredom selling by the looks of it. Share has gone sideways since June between 7.25p and just above 9p. Needs material news..

[bengal1] 24/10/2023 13:01

JSE picking up.

[purple11] 24/10/2023 10:58

will support hold or will we be falling into the abyss?

[badger60] 24/10/2023 03:18

2bozmoYou're right, it's very difficult to get a perspective across 3 trading centres. It seems that activity has more or less halted awaiting news. Having a relatively high proportion of ii holders should hopefully add weight to getting the required funding.

[2bozmo] 23/10/2023 11:25

Should be full capacity at Vele this quarter so that's $8m/year coming in

[2bozmo] 23/10/2023 10:19

Trouble is there's 3 centres and no volume. They will drop one at some point.We get quarterly report at end of this month then the AGM in November. I still believe we get financing this quarter

[bengal1] 23/10/2023 09:49

It's the fact that coal is steaming ahead will be a factor for funding. Fingers crossed.

[badger60] 23/10/2023 08:46

Regardless of the price of coal it's all about MCMs ability to get financing. The online market has no bid and a small offer. Imo it's not looking so good. I hope that I'm wrong.

[aimmafia] 22/10/2023 17:30

You will see coal start rocketing in price soon.

[bengal1] 22/10/2023 15:52

Telegraph today.. Business
China coal imports hit record high after surge in air conditioning use

[bengal1] 21/10/2023 17:54

Today.. India's Booming Coal Demand Drains Inventories

[purple11] 21/10/2023 12:33

reality is raising 200 million in this market is probably nigh impossible however they say it is going to happen so with that in mind im in for a small punt as it would be transformational for the company and shareprice..lets see what they say in the quarterly report

[aimmafia] 20/10/2023 17:46

Update soon so we will really know where we are at