Its not a tech business, its a consumer business using tech., so it has “captive”; customers. Customer data sells very well on the open market and has great value to sellers, thats why everyone is after your email address just for buying paperclips.
I imagine there’s still a decent future for Card. Why its attracted a following on advfn is a puzzle, probably to do with trading rather than investing, which is probably why this thread is very quiet.
Moon took over experiences businesses before the cost of living problems and a general drop in larger discretionary purchases.
So they are a current drag until they are sorted out and so is Greetz until its profitable.
I’m not trading so not looking for temporary shares in risky areas like physical retail. |
Results were okay. There was a bit of froth here imo, anyway.
Seems management blundered with £124m of cash for Red Letter Days and is trying to get people to look elsewhere by shouting 'tech' and paying out lots of cash. It's not growing like a tech company.
Some good ideas and run well-ish, but I won't be getting back in. Much more upside to card imo, but I don't want people here to hate me for saying that ;) |
Weird mix of very large trades and lots of very small ones today.
Not sure why the share price rose into results - they'd not signposted or hinted at an exceeds. |
The valuation here is because of the online market dominance and the “captive”; audience of users.
For anyone not familiar with the holy grail of business, its annually recurring revenues and a set of users or clients than can all be upgraded, cross-sold etc etc. Preferably the business to have built a close to monopoly in its market.
Strictly speaking Moon don’t have the Amazon Prime type of recurring revenues though.
Also these results have been produced despite problems with gifting and Greetz being loss-making.
Stick it in the US and the p/e would be nearer 50 than 20. |
4*
Moonpig Group plc posted HY results for the period ended 31st October which were pretty looking. Reported revenue increased by 3.8% year-on-year to £158.0m, driven by double digit growth at the Moonpig brand. Adjusted EBITDA was up marginally to £41.8m from H1 FY24 £41.4m with margin rate above the Group’s medium-term target range. Adjusted profit before taxation growth was 9.0% to £27.3m reflecting growth in trading and lower interest costs. Current trading also remains in line with expectations with growth underpinned...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/MOON/1075 |
Why are these terrible figures ? Sales were marginally up 3.8% with gross margin improvements resulting in a 9.0% increase in pre-tax profits. This growth should continue with full year sales forecasts unchanged and with the number of Moonpig Plus/Greetz Plus subscribers increasing by nearly 400% from 200,000 to 750,000 over the past year. Furthermore, they have a strong cashflow, which is funding both their £25m share buyback program plus an interim dividend of 1.0p.
Following a circa 70% rise in the shareprice over the past year there is some inevitable profit taking this morning. No position here yet but this remains on my watchlist as a stock with good forward capital growth potential. |
Terrible figures and no explanation
I guess nobody cares. |
You pay for convenience and customisation. Same with Prime and thats just for instant gratification, not just convenience, plus you pay £100 a year for that.
Our close family has 4 females and 2 males. Only the women use Moonpig, probably because they have social media and mobile addiction issues.
Point about Guernsey is interesting. That is a theoretical risk. The gifts come from all over the place though. I’d be very surprised if Guernsey shot themselves in the foot, or allowed our gov to mess with their exports. There are a lot of vested UK interests in Guernsey, not unrelated to some politicians and high level public “servants̶1;.
Also imo price-sensitivity is not a major issue here, so passing on increased costs may not be either. |
Just found that the plane costs without staff, fuel etc are just over 1.75m. That's more than GP made in profit last year. 3 pilots is another 0.5m at least. Fuel costs are going to be about 2.5m to 3m. Plus at least 2m for overheads and other costs. 80% of that's around £5.5m that GP has to find on profit of around £1m. Given we are most the post, then I can see this costing us and just remember that GP will want to make a profit on the post. Over a 10% hit to the high profits of last year, even without import duty. |
 So, have a couple of concerns here not around sales but around the costs for the business.
First of all, we have a single-point-of-failure for the entire business model with the mail plane. From the reports, we and FP make up the majority of the mail from Guernsey, and the mail provider have been looking for partners for a while now and it all seems a bit desperate. Jersey seem to be saying it is very unlikely and yet that's the news hitting the public domain, so it doesn't appear there are other realistic partners in the mix. Let's be honest, it is going to be hard to find someone to stump up 80% of the plane bill even if they were importing into the island. It's just not that big a place.
We could see a ferry-only service, and that would destroy this business, but I doubt it. More likely it will cost more for us, though. We've been getting a free lunch for sometime, and now we'll have to pay something of a bill. Either through actually contributing towards the costs as we are the biggest party to benefit from it or a static charge on mail inbound to the uk. There's 5 months to go tiktok. GP aren't that profitable, so I can't see them being able to cover all the cost.
Also, there's growing pressure from UK-based retailers to have import duty charged on big retailers exploiting the loophole meant for personal use. The EU are doing it and so are the US. I just think that once the Shien IPO happens or collapses that this government will do that. We're talking about duties on gifts not cards, but still likely to be a cost in the multiple of millions.
Final concern is that RM will keep putting up prices, and we will probably see some sort of environmental tax. This is going to hit us harder as every order we sell is posted. Everything in a singular package.
On the positive side, the business is being run fairly well, making strides in the premium segment, even if I think the cards are frankly a rip-off. I guess most the customers have the male-gene and so pay the convenience premium ;). I buy around 40 cards a year and only 1 or 2 from here even though I'm in.
Final-final point, that the buybacks are being done with share price quite high. Could it be that management want to touch up the EPS for future years as margins reduce? |
I guess the buyback program is a known known. Surely there must be something more constructive to do with the capital? |
mooning again |
Theres no other posters so no worries !
I think Card is probably having to play catchup with their online offering.
A bit like online clothing playing catchup with ASOS 10+ years ago. |
So I’ve used card to buy online - similar to moon, or customisable too so find it odd that it’s languishing. But don’t want to x-pollute here, so I’ll leave it there
D |
Thoughts on card?
D |
All the chatter about the motley collection of random businesses in the Hut group, but all those folk could have just bought Moon earlier and sat back and waited. |
Silence is golden |
Meanwhile complete silence on a sustained rise that would usually cause Advfn users to go crazy |
The annual membership is a kind of gifting-as-a-service model. Once you get into recurring revenues the value of the business and its rating should rise.
I don’t know if EU countries have anything similar but if they haven’t, then there’s a big opportunity. Greetz seems to be going well. |
I don't know what proportion of MOON's gifts/cards are imported and not sure where to find that out, other than if they mention it. The experiences aren't. I'd hope the cards are printed here. Some chocolates are. TBH not worth going through their list of products. They're not generally widgets, they're mainly consumables, so I imagine they are sourced from all over the place, not via some monster ship from China. |
SHOE reporting higher container costs and also harder to get hold of them. Isn't there a similar read across to MOON, or are MOON products being air freighted in ? |
Mine isn’t so good either, but I did buy quite a lot nervously near the bottom.
Unfortunately their float timing couldn’t take into account future events !
Or you could call it opportunistic on the back of covid based boom. |
With my bookcost share price needs to rise as much again as it just has, for me to break even |
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