Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[1waving] 25/7/2009 09:24

Gold Fields certainly tied up GEX directors and ran rings round them. GF have 12% of shares committed and directors recommendation and non-solicitation agreement ( what a cop out by the directors, who now have gold lined pockets ) and have the majority in the JV in 3 of the 5 Mali licenses. What a head start for GF.

maniac3 -- read the offer document but assuming GF complete you can wait for your shares to be taken for 9p when they achieve a certain percentage of shares, I think sometime in September is the cut off, if you do hold for this you would benefit from any competitive bid.
You can hold in the hope of a bid or sell in the market at any time.

Gold Fields have a very strong head start on the bid as mentioned in the first paragraph but I think a canny large competitive bidder could turn the tables as the value of getting hold of the heart of the area, Komana, plus Solona is very cheap in itself even at maybe 11 to 14p per share.

Then they would also have a free ride on the 3 license in the JV with Gold Fields and could sell out that JV to GF or another company, and in effect have gained JORC resources of over 1.25million ounces with much greater potential at Komana and Solona and have gained entry to an exclusive area and country with massive potential. South West Mali is very much a 'Mayfair' of real estate for gold miners.

Then add in the Ghana and Uganda licenses.

Then add in the strong overall forecast for gold to go over $1,000 per oz, that is also what Gold Fields are forecasting in the near term.

Certainly think shareholders have been let down by directors and the 9p bid is derisory and a severe rip off of GEX shareholders.

The bid of £28 million is pitiful now --- gross undervaluation.
In maybe 3-5 years the owner of the 5 licenses may be looking at a ten figure value there, yes, a billion in market cap to a company if all goes even reasonably well there.

I sincerely hope another bid does come in but any other bidder I think would need to move quickly. GF have a head start.

Very best of luck to all.

[maniac3] 25/7/2009 06:33

Assuming this is the final offer what is the procedure from here? Do we actually get sent a cheque or is the money just paid into our trading/investing accounts?

Have to say I thought any offer would have been in the low teens in all fairness. I was quite happy to hold at a bit of a loss for a while instead of suddenly being able to hop out a breakeven.

Unbelievable.

[m4lcolm] 24/7/2009 23:42

Amazing I have been bought out twice in the past six weeks for a fraction of the true value RIFT & GEX although I am delighted to get my money back a massive profit would have been much more accetable. Why do we not get shares in the company that is buying instead of a cheque?

[serpicouk] 24/7/2009 23:24

Dr - talk about salt in the wound. I've held TMC longer than GEX.

...I think I might review my long term buy-and-hold strategy for a more short term speculate-to-accumulate...then again, may be its just the times we live in that's distorting my view.

Anyway, Sunday looks like it might be a wash out so might put some time aside to do some preliminary research - will take a look at ZEN and VGM.

[dr fillip strange] 24/7/2009 23:12

concur, where to put the cash? 18% profit on 3 years, not bad or good for 3 years high risk, hope it's not over..

looking at transformers, nickel, gold and stem cells - nothing to payoff in short term...

ZEN, TMC, VGM & RENE

[share_shark] 24/7/2009 22:42

Serpico >Two good posts and I concur. Please do discuss where to relocate.

Wish I had taken Deka's advice and gone into MML/ look where it is today?.

Please keep posting all.

[serpicouk] 24/7/2009 22:18

Don't hold your breath chrissey. It looks done and dusted to me.

This certainly demonstrates the old adage that the number one factor to consider when investing in a company is the quality of the management.

Glencar had the assets to become a serious player in Mali but unfortunately the board were running on empty. My only regret is that this only became clear to me shortly after the share price plummeted otherwise I could have got out of this years ago and put my money to some proper use.

Talking of which - may be we should start a discussion about where best to relocate our proceeds?

[chrissey] 24/7/2009 21:16

it's a disgrace, certainly, buying gold in the ground at less than $22/oz and more to come.

Hopefully one of the other big boys will have a go?

[serpicouk] 24/7/2009 20:50

The last 12 months have been a shocking disgrace from this company.

Shareholders kept in the dark whilst a weak management were being completely out manoeuvred by GF.

Long term shareholders screwed.

The only person that got rich was HmC.

THE END.

[1waving] 24/7/2009 20:15

Headlines in a years time:--

JORC resource of 1.5m oz at Bokoro

JORC resource of 1m oz at Sanioumale - more to come at Sindo target.

JORC increase at Komana up to 2.5m oz. Bankable Feasibility Study underway. Mining to start late 2011

4 more targets ready to be resource drilled at Solona, Komana, Sanioumale and Bokoro. Further targets to be developed.

Gold up to $1,000+

-------------------

Now that Gold Fields have had a damned good look at what is on the 3 Sankarani JV licenses and know what is coming there.

AND

It is well known Komana is the heart of all 5 of the Mali licenses -- Gold Fields covet Komana above all the other licenses, it is the lynch pin.


They have reneged on the Letter of Intent on the Komana deal deliberately to set Glencar up for being taken over at a derisory price by them.

[fairdeal2008] 24/7/2009 19:03

Have you guys seen the Swanson article on Kitco:



This suggests $34 per ounce is the recent record for acquisitions. Of course as you rightly note in some companies such as GEX this doesnt necessarily account for the resource upside.

Shanta Gold has 2.6 million ounces JORC. Different company, different resource betc etc, but capped at just £5million compared to the £50million it would be at $34 per ounce I imagine the holders there would snap Gold Fields hands off for a bid at $34 an ounce.

I guess on GEX Gold Fields are being a little opportunistic, after their previous discussions with the company.

imho

[robbi123] 24/7/2009 18:53

Agree Dr. Certainly interesting times ahead, and hopefully plenty of press, expressing what a poor deal this is for shareholders.

You could sell at 8.998p when the spread was 8.75-9 today, makes me wonder....

[bo doodak] 24/7/2009 18:50

TW - why anyone listens to that guy and all these other ''helpful'' small investor ''guru'' sources of information (bar very general research) beats me -they are not there to help us small timers..... - quite often only useful as a trading timing contra indicator IMHO

[dr fillip strange] 24/7/2009 18:49

Just a rough calc on $ take out price per ounce of JORC 1.25m

say take out price £28m = £22.40 per ounce or $31.88 per ounce (EUR/USD 1.42)

seem to remember similar takover in West Africa some time in the past year can remember $ per ounce value, but was well above this...

this is based on the JORC as we know is nowhere near the full potential.....of all assets

maybe trying to flush out a serious bid from third parties and counter by Goldfields, at least that's what I hope.

[robbi123] 24/7/2009 18:35

Based on previous target prices 1waving, it was a buy at up to 12p, target of 25p I believe. Cenkos rated this a buy too, believing that at 5.6p there was "significant upside as exploration continues".

I agree, I dont think we have seen the last of this, at least I hope not. I expected Hugh to do MUCH MUCH better than this. When I first bought into GEX many years ago, I believed we would be taken out at anywhere between 30p-40p, however, times have changed and GF have well and truly shafted shareholders here by acquiring us on the cheap.

[1waving] 24/7/2009 18:24

seagreen - yes I know what you mean but I think we havent heard the last here yet.



robbi123 ---- has TW said that GEX is worth double what the bid is today, or was that from a previous call.

[seagreen] 24/7/2009 18:11

makes vgm look a blinder then 1 waving with a market cap of circa £30m and a defined resource of 800,000 oz and a JORC probable resource in total of 5m oz

[robbi123] 24/7/2009 18:06

Wonder what TW will say about this, he believed GEX to be worth at least double what the bid was!

[1waving] 24/7/2009 17:49

Macquarie ???

The institutional shareholders may be casting their nets for interest, wonder what Macquarie are up to.

They opposed the original Gold Fields Komana deal and wanted an alternative route, they have strong connections and ties in the mining sector ---- hmmmmmmmmmm

[pecker1] 24/7/2009 17:18

From the offer document:

" that since the termination of discussions on the Komana Joint Venture, announced
on 7 July 2009, Glencar has had discussions with several third parties who have
expressed an interest in Glencar and/or its assets. Discussions with one of
these parties led to an approach which has not led to an indicative offer."


The Glencar BOD are also bound not to recommend another offer unless it is 10% better. Seems like the only hope of getting reasonable value for our investment is from a better offer from one of the goldminers that has probably done a site visit/first pass DD to Komana during the last year.

[tarbusiness] 24/7/2009 17:12

UPDATE: Gold Fields Offers GBP28 Million For Glencar Mining





(Adds detail, background.)


By Robb M. Stewart
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI), Africa's second-largest producer of the precious metal, has agreed to purchase a smaller mining company for about GBP28 million to give it access to a project in Mali with a resource of 1.25 million troy ounces.

The deal is part of an ongoing trend of consolidation in Africa's still fragmented mining industry as companies look to bolster reserves or turn to a partner to help fund the development of assets.

The Johannesburg-based company said it has made a recommended offer of 9 pence a share for Glencar Mining PLC (GN2.DB), whose principal asset is the Komana project in southern Mali.

The offer is subject to the acceptance of shareholders representing 80% of Glencar's issued shares, although Gold Fields said it may reduce that to as low as 50%. The purchase would be paid out of existing resources and is expected to close in late September, the company said.

"We like Mali and this acquisition forms part of our strategy to grow our presence and footprint in the West African region," said Nick Holland, chief executive of the South African mining firm.

"The offer fairly values Glencar's existing resource base and exploration upside," he said.

Dublin-headquartered Glencar, which is focused on exploration and gold deposits in west Africa, on July 7 said it had broken off talks with Gold Fields that had been aimed at creating a joint venture on the Komana project.

While large-scale consolidation such as Xstrata PLC's (XTA.LN) rejected nil-premium proposal to combine with rival Anglo American PLC (AAUK) tends to grab headlines, a number of smaller deals are in the works. Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD), with the support of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), last week made a rival offer for Moto Goldmines Ltd. (MGL.T) in a deal that values the gold exploration firm at about $488 million, more than an earlier agreed bid from Red Back Mining Inc. (RBI.T). At stake is access to one of Africa's largest undeveloped mineral resources, the Moto gold project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

AngloGold is Africa's largest gold producer.

Elsewhere, Central African Mining & Exploration Co. (CFM.LN) earlier this month said it had received preliminary takeover approaches from unnamed suitors. Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (AQP.AU) is close to finalizing its GBP96 million takeover of smaller Ridge Mining PLC (RDG.LN).

Company Web site: www.goldfields.co.za

www.glencarmining.ie

-By Robb M. Stewart, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone]; [e-mail]

[1waving] 24/7/2009 16:54

Gold Fields walked away from the Letter of Intent/JV deal deliberately having also taken a 9% stake in Glencar ---- now we can see why they broke the agreement ---- to pick up Glencar on the cheap and shaft shareholders.

Timed to get in before the gold price rises also.