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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mineral Sec | MXX | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 29.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.00 | 29.00 |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 01/9/2008 16:55 by peter stefano Am I correct in saying that when or maybe that should still read if COPPERCO LTD take over MXX that the new merged entity will be listed on the ASX?The reason I ask is for ISA admin! |
Posted at 13/8/2008 13:44 by pillion Yes !!That's how I got roped into this mess Scarborough took over GRWA; - MXX took out Scarbo I am well out of them now but still took a hit djalan |
Posted at 11/7/2008 06:58 by nutt New company will be Isable as per revenue rules.However to suggest that T.D.Waterhouse would beable to handle it,I doubt as they could not or would not understand that MXX is Isable.I have been assured by Hargreaves that although they do not presently trade on ASX that I will beable to continue to hold them in my ISA which is a tremendos relief as I take great comfort todate as having protected my loss. |
Posted at 08/7/2008 22:21 by pillion Mr OYour shares are now flying round in Cyberspace For the same reason I have sold all of my MXX You could ask on this Ozzy bull board I am sure that they will recommend a share-dealer in Melbourne or Sydney good luck jal |
Posted at 18/4/2008 09:04 by utwiq I posted this elsewhere, thought it might be of interest here also:A healthy arbitrage opportunity remains (buy MXX as a cheap way into CUO) with the risk that the merger does not go through. MXX in Australia closed at $1.315 and in London now is 58.5p ($1.24), the merger equivalent price based on CUO's close should be $1.441 (67.8p). The latest drill results really do confirm management's confidence that they will extend mine life. The asset just gets more valuable by the day, especially with the wind behind the copper price! As it stands, CUO is on a forward P/E of 2.3 with massive exploration potential. I've set out another summary of NewCopperCo which may be of interest. The earning figures assume US$4.00 copper, although of course 9kt of production is hedged at US$3.08 equiv. over each of the next three years. MCap of NewCopperCo: A$499m Liquid assets A$213m (less some modest old CUO debt, which may well be repaid by the time the merger is through) Post-tax earnings at 30kt/yr (from early 2009): A$144m Post-tax earnings at 19-25kt/yr (this year): A$86-118m P/EV ratio: 1.99 P/E ratio (so not counting liquid assets): 3.47 And on top of this the new company will own Lady Loretta (25% stake in a 13.7 mt deposit grading 17.0% Zn, 5.8% Pb and 96.0g/t Ag) as well as Sappes (1m oz gold deposit in Greece), and Vostok (massive copper property in Central Asia into which Vale [formerly CVRD] is earning an 85% interest); plus a range of smaller exploration interests. CUO commissioned an independent valuation of MXX which reported on the 15th of April and assessed the value of MXX at between A$386.4 million and A$592.8 million, with a 'preferred value' of A$496.4 million. This compares rather favourably to my liquid assets column above (which is just tradeable securities plus cash less debt) of A$213m. If this valuation is sound, and I think it is (Lady Loretta is a stunningly valuable property) then the entire MCap of NewCopperCo would be justified by the MXX assets and the earnings from the copper projects would be there for free. Or conversely, if you attach a P/E ratio of 3.47 to the copper earnings you get assets valued at the MCap for free. In short, up strongly in the last few days but up from a very low base and with news (and copper prices) driving the move. And still a very cheap and appealing package. I own a lot (for me) but I think the numbers make a fairly strong case even if I am biased. |
Posted at 14/4/2008 17:10 by a0148009 Too early to say except that the share price is trading below the offer of 2.2 CUO sharesfor each MXX - see my post no 435 which gives closing price of A$0.4775 valuing MXX at 49p an 8% discount to the offer which should support the price at this level. 55p for mxx would take the share price above the 200 day MA which would be good news. Would expect the share price would have a pop once the deal is completed. DYOR AO |
Posted at 30/3/2008 22:26 by utwiq I posted this lengthy analysis elsewhere - it may be of interest (although be warned it largely sums up [and updates] my last few posts on this board):With the renewed interest in copper (amongst analysts, investors [witness Grandich's change of heart]), I thought I'd post an account of an ASX-listed company, CopperCo (ASX:CUO). I'm heavily invested (for a minnow such as myself) in a company called Mineral Securities (listed on ASX and AIM in London, ticker MXX), which is a mining house with a major stake in CUO. The two companies are merging. CUO offers very cheap and profitable copper production, MXX offers a very cheap set of listed investments and development projects including one of the most promising new platinum plays (Platmin, London and TSX listed, ticker PPN) and an unlisted 25% stake in a very high grade zince/lead/silver deposit (Xstrata own the rest). Private shareholders in CUO and MXX were both upset with the merger proposal, which to me suggests it is a fair deal. Certainly the new company, which so far is being termed New CopperCo, will be very attractive indeed. Here is the breakdown (all these figures in A$): 761.7m shares (after having taken out MXX's 97m holding in CUO) $388.47m Mcap at $0.51 (current CUO price) $207.37m liquid assets (setting aside CUO cash/debt; this figure does however take into account MXX's $51m cash and $72m debt, so $21m net debt) $181.09m enterprise value (ignore CUO cash/debt) $82.60m (post-tax profit at current 19kt production) $112.23m (post-tax profit at 25kt production [mid 2008]) $136.93m (post-tax profit at aimed for 30kt production [end of the year]) This assumes copper is at US$3.73/lb. The company has hedged 27.5kt over three years at US$3.02/lb equivalent (the hedge is in A$, hence the equivalent bit) but the rest of production will be unhedged. Of the $207.37m net liquid assets, $151.27m is the investment in PPN, which will be a very serious producer from Q1 2009 (shallow, low-chrome platinum ounces - a very attractive company indeed). At 30kt copper the ratio of enterprise value to earnings is 1.322. Just going on MCap, the P/E is 2.84. All post-tax. Mine life is not terribly long at present (7yrs), but there is a great deal of potential to expand this, especially since the merger with MXX brings together a lot of land in Nthern Queensland, which is where the copper operation is. None of the above takes any account of the unlisted assets that MXX brings to the table. They include Vostok (a copper property into which Vale is earning an 85% interest - by funding a feasibility study), Sappes (an 800koz gold property in Greece; feasibility completed in 2006, awaiting permitting [a tricky business in Greece] before production), and the jewel in the crown, Lady Loretta, in which they have a 25% interest (Xstrata holding the rest). Here is the analysis for Loretta: 13.7mt at 17% Zn, 5.8% Pb, and 96g/t Ag. Assuming 90% recoveries, each ton contains 336.6 lb/t Zn, 114.8 lb/t Pb, and 2.8 oz/t Ag. At $0.75/lb Zn this is $252.45/t for the zinc, at $0.50/lb Pb, $57.42/t fot the lead and at $12/oz Ag, $33.45/t for silver. Add it up and you have $343.32/t - at conservative metal prices. Assume $50/t opex and you have $293.32/t margin. Outstanding by any measure. Further assume: 2kt/day (19.6yr mine life) 700kt/annum (350 days) $205.32m operating profit $51.33m (New CopperCo [pre-tax] share) I haven't estimated capex for a 2kt/day operation. There was a technical report from April last year which set out some alternatives (one of which was toll milling through Xstrata's nearby Mt Isa operation: higher opex [although my $50/t was a high stipulation] but much lower capex). I wouldn't think it would exceed $200m, of which the company's share would be $50m, so pay-back in less than one year. Increase the production rate (which is very possible) or up the metal prices and the annual profit leaps accordingly. Very latest metal prices: $1.04 zn, $1.24 pb, $17.79 ag. The value per ton (at 90% recovery, as above) is $542 and the margin $492. MXX's pre-tax annual profit would be $86m. Or increase production to 3kt/day or 4kt/day - pre-tax profit leaps to $77m and then $102.6m. A very nice kicker for the New CopperCo. I think this is screamingly good value. And it gets better. Since the merger plan was announced CUO and MXX have traded in lock step, but they have diverged slightly since then (the deal is 2.2 CUO shares for each MXX share). The last close for CUO was A$0.51. The merger equivalent is $1.122 or 51.83p. MXX closed at A$0.99 (45.73p equivalent) and 43.5p in London. This gives a nice value gap, into an already startlingly cheap proposal. Invest £1 into MXX now and it buys £1.19 in the New CopperCo (this is just 51.83/43.5). If you buy on the ASX your A$1 buys $1.133, so not quite as cheap, although getting an instant 13% uptick into an already absurdly cheap company should appeal. Or buy in London and get an instant 19% free. All this assumes the merger closes, which I expect it will. If it doesn't, and you bought MXX direct, then you just own an astoundingly cheap mining house. I have an interest - I own a lot of this (for a small investor like myself) - because I think the numbers are compelling. This is, in my view, worth a serious look for any copper enthusiast or value investor (especially one who wants to buy a copper producer on a forward P/E of under 3, which effectively comes with platinum production, zinc development and a gold landbank for free). The company websites are quite useful: And the following article may be of interest (although it does contain errors): This crowd have written on MXX before. The comments on management experience and the quality of the team being assembled are worth noting. They also wrote up Platmin (PPN) a few days later: |
Posted at 27/3/2008 07:51 by utwiq pillion - I'm afraid I don't know definitively one way or the other (I may email management as well, I've had useful replies from them in the past, although one often has to wait [busy men, which I appreciate]). My working assumption however is that we are to delist from AIM and be exclusive to ASX. I say this from the stated terms of the merger (which I'd initially just assumed extended to a continued AIM listing) and from the fact that HSBC has indicated that the shares will have to be listed in my own name (rather than in a nominee account) because they cannot hold Australian shares for me. macca42 - not quite sure what you mean? MXX management suspended the deal on PPN because the market sentiment shifted (so that PPN's price stayed too low) and debt wasn't available in that context, or worth spending. CUO is not at all the same. It will spit out cash at an impressive rate and the merged business, per my analysis above, will be very strong indeed. Both sets of shareholders get a very attractive package of assets out of this merger, and for once I think it's fair to say this is a genuinely value-adding proposal for all concerned. Incidentally, CUO closed last night at A$0.505. The merger equivalent is $1.111 or 51.04p. MXX actually ticked down very modestly (although the closing bid/ask was much higher) to $0.95 (43.64p). This gives a nice value gap, into an already startlingly cheap proposal. Invest £1 into MXX now and it buys £1.18 in the New CopperCo (this is just 51.04/43.25). Obviously I'm biased - I own a lot of this (for a small investor like myself) - but value will out! |
Posted at 26/3/2008 08:36 by utwiq the last transaction yesterday (5500 at 43.23p) registered as a sell (because it was below mid-price) but was in fact a buy: one more buy for me!here is my breakdown of New CopperCo: 761.7m shares (after having taken out MXX's 97m holding) 365.62A$m Mcap at $0.480 (current CUO price) 209.37A$m liquid assets (setting aside CUO cash/debt) 156.25A$m enterprise value (ignore CUO cash/debt) 82.60A$m (post-tax profit at current 19kt production) 112.23A$m (post-tax profit at 25kt production [mid 2008]) 136.93A$m (post-tax profit at aimed for 30kt production [end of the year]) Oh and then there is Sappes (if the Greek govt. ever allows development) and Lady Loretta, which is very valuable: 13.7mt content of each ton at 90% recoveries 17.0% Zn 374.0 lb/t 336.6 lb/t 5.8% Pb 127.6 lb/t 114.8 lb/t 96.0g/t Ag 3.1 oz/t 2.8 oz/t 0.75$/lb Zn 252.45 $/t 343.32 $/t value 0.50$/lb Pb 57.42 $/t 50.00 $/t opex 12.00$/oz Ag 33.45 $/t 293.32 $/t margin So if one assumes $50/t opex, then the margin per ton is $293, at quite conservative metal prices. Assume: 2kt/day (19.6yr mine life) 700kt/annum (350 days) 205.32$m operating profit 51.33$m (MXX [pre-tax] share) I haven't estimated capex for a 2kt/day operation. The Snowdens report from April last year set out some alternatives (one of which was toll milling through Xstrata's Mt Isa operation: higher opex [although my $50/t was a high stipulation] but much lower capex). I wouldn't think it would exceed $200m, of which MXX's share would be $50m, so pay-back in less than one year. Increase the production rate (which is very possible) or up the metal prices and the annual profit leaps accordingly. Very latest metal prices: $1.04 zn, $1.24 pb, $17.79 ag. The value per ton (at 90% recovery, as above) is $542 and the margin $492. MXX's pre-tax annual profit would be $86m. Or increase production to 3kt/day or 4kt/day - pre-tax profit leaps to $77m and then $102.6m. A nice kicker for the New CopperCo. |
Posted at 05/2/2008 15:57 by utwiq fwiw - I've been thinking a lot about the merits of this dealMXX management have a major stake in the company, per my post above, so I don't think they are just empirebuilding or happily diluting us mere mortals; I think this will be an honest attempt to build long-term value both CUO and MXX private shareholders seem to be annoyed by the proposed deal, and I can understand why - CUO has just hit production and is trading at a very low price and obviously MXX is massively discounted to its equity holdings (not to mention its directly held interest) - however this strikes me as a good sign! the deal is not to either party's immediate advantage; that is, no one is getting the better of the deal, but it is a medium term win-win we (MXX shareholders) get access to major cashflow; I remember thinking, just before the merger, that at $2.50 copper, CUO was effectively on a P/E of 2.5 (rough figures; not accounting for tax!), and that MXX should up its stake as it is, the enlarged group will have a suite of excellent development projects (which is what we bring to the table) and massive cashflow (the CUO contribution) with which to fund development, service debt for major acquisitions, etc. the rationale, I think, (not terribly well expressed thus far) is that the enlarged group will have a better shot at realising the value of CUO's cashflow and MXX's development suite than would either on their own; I know this was the rationale for MXX/SCRB as well, but it made sense then too, and it makes even more given the intervening market changes, with capital raising being more difficlt and share price volatility being notable MXX/CUO will be capable of serious value-adding development and corporate action once they've merged; the resulting company will be roughly (I'll give exact figures later) $400m MCap, with $250m in listed assets, $100m/annum cashflow and some very valuable directly held development projects (Loretta, Sappes); on reflection, I'm happy with the deal, although of course I'd love the value in MXX to have been recognised earlier and more fully... |
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