Midas Capital Share Discussion Threads

[edjodav] 05/1/2007 16:23

quite today

[andy man] 05/1/2007 10:26

Strong interest now coming through.

[spurious] 04/1/2007 14:30

Hi P2
I strongly echo your comments as a shareholder of approx 4%.
40p represents a prospective PE of 12 based on T and G s EPS of 3.3p for 2007 and an industry average of 18 would indicate a share price of approx 60p for Mondas. No value would be attributed to the millions spent on R and D, or the some 2 million in cash,nor the substantial tax losses built up worth some 2 million net to any predator.
Mondas with 2 world leading products and all parts of the business profitable remains an obvious takeover candidate but not remotely at this price.
Interestingly I notice Ffastfill are on the end of a bid approach and in our industry sector this is becoming an increasingly familiar occurrence Every Co must have its price but currently as we both know we are a million miles away from fair value.

Regards P1

[andy man] 04/1/2007 14:08

Will tick up this afternoon. Last orders on 17p

Andy

[gac141] 04/1/2007 13:49

Magpie

I think the worst case is 8m shares and I am sure an option to pay cash must be there- therefore maybe worst case 4m and only if share price remains under 17p, which I feel is unlikely.

I have over 3% of shares and would not sell at any price anywhere near this level not even 40p!!!! I also know many other large holders who are of the same mind. This company is just starting to achieve so why would anyone, inc you, jump ship now to an opportunist low bid.

George

[mollymolly] 04/1/2007 12:33

Magpie

Our posts crossed!

I understand that HSBC are not likely to take up CAPS anytime soon. There are significant opportunities elsewhere which are much more likely - see Sept Statement.

Your number of 12m shares is not at all likley, I am sure I am much nearer the mark.

Mondas may in time become a takeover target, but I am confident that the major shareholders would not want to jump ship just when management has proved that they have turned the company around. Of course someone sniffing around may well be the quickest way back to 40p+.

[magpie99] 04/1/2007 12:28

March will very soon be upon us. In my estimation it is extremely unlikely that we will be at 25p by then. Perhaps news about the HSBC contract will start the ball rolling.

The only good news I can see is that we are now a take over target, and that will enable us to jettison a management that was unable to create shareholder value.More than 2 years after this management took control our share price is no better, and with the forthcomming dilution of up to a further 12,205,882 will make it much harder to create any value.

[mollymolly] 04/1/2007 12:25

Romeo,

The statement yesterday says that Blue Curve has "more than doubled" its turnover in 2006. That is more than 1.85m. It does not say that they have achieved the maximum earnout, which was always a very tall order!

If the turnover was £1.85 then the additional payment would be £1.4m ((1.85-1.15)x2)less any shortfall from 2005 plus any amount over the "doubling". My guess is a payment of £1.5m. This can be shares or cash at Mondas' discretion.

If say, they do half cash then we will have £750k worth of shares, which at 20p (surely higher by March?) would be 3.75m shares - a dilution of about 10%.

[romeo] 04/1/2007 11:48

But it also says that the deferred consideration is to be satisfied by the issue of shares. It does not say "cash or shares." Is there any wiggle room on this point?

[romeo] 04/1/2007 11:47

So sometime in March the earnout will have to be paid.

Let's say we make 25 pence by then. That would mean the remaining #2 million, if paid entirely in shares, would require the issue of 8 million additional shares.

If the company were to pay #1 million in cash and issue 4 million additional shares, I think shareholders would find that much more palatable!

[romeo] 04/1/2007 11:38

When must the earnout be paid? Here we are:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The maximum consideration of #3 million comprises:

a) an initial consideration of #925,000, satisfied by the issue of
5,606,060 new Mondas ordinary shares at a price of 16.5p per share; and

b) deferred consideration of up to #2,075,000, based on Blue Curve's revenues
for the year ending 31 December 2006, after deducting any shortfall
adjustment, at the rate of twice the excess above a minimum revenue of
#1.15 million. The shortfall adjustment is defined as 1.5 times the amount
by which Blue Curve's revenues for the year ending 31 December 2005 fall
below #925,000. The deferred consideration is to be satisfied by the issue
of up to a further 12,205,882 new Mondas ordinary shares, issued at the
higher of 17p per share and a discount of 10 per cent. to the mid market
price of a Mondas ordinary share on the date of the announcement of
preliminary results for the year ending 31 December 2006.

[gac141] 04/1/2007 10:08

Morning molly

If the cash position was very strong as they seem to indicate. I see no reason why they might not pay a chunk in cash and save diluting existing share holders??? This would prove a very popular move in my mind.

[mollymolly] 04/1/2007 09:15

I wonder whether the company will use cash (or partly cash) to pay the Blue Curve Earnout?

[napoleon 14th] 04/1/2007 00:33

Very positive IMHO.

I'd much rather be in these than SVR!!!

Cash flow & profits do make the share price look too low, but all current & forecast eps & PER seem to ignore the forthcoming dilution.

As long as that sale really is booked in Jan. '07, & the trading update with the March results is in the same vein as today's improved situation, no probs for the 25p target.....................some day..........................soon?

[damanko] 03/1/2007 21:06

(Going back to an earlier post) I too am an "involuntary holder" by virtue of Foresight VCT "C" (FTVC). As FTVC has holdings in both Mondas & (what was) Blue Curve, I am heartily encouraged by what MDS has achieved in the last 2 years. The little (in the big picture) missed revenue cited in the trading update really is neither here nor there, it matters only in that the revenue will be deferred, as opposed to not received.

I would hope/imagine that all of us on this thread are shareholders, one way or another. What counts in business - any business - is cashflow.

And the statement today put that to bed for a while.
Think it will be a good year for Mondas, whatever happens in the wider market.

[cocker] 03/1/2007 21:05

I understand your frustration Magpie. However, now is not the time too jettison these from your portfolio.

[magpie99] 03/1/2007 18:49

In the real world a company that continually misses forecasts is

the company that becomes the bolt on acquisition.

Mondas shareholders should wake up and stop listening to spin.What sort of Alice and Wonderland world do they inhabit?

[cocker] 03/1/2007 18:45

Nice to be in the blue at the end of the day, after early blip. I must say "where on earth would we be if it was not for the Blue Curve acquisition".CAPS seems to have not yet taken off in the way that we had all anticipated all thoose years ago.Still loyal holders must be at least happy that we are moving in the right direction.

[romeo] 03/1/2007 15:55

While I am disappointed in missing the forecast, it is clear that Mondas is now a serious company with cutting-edge products and a bright future.

Going forward, the company must focus on execution and meeting analysts' forecasts. As the number of customers grows and Mondas continues to develop and grow its markets, contract slippages like the one we have just experienced will surely have less of an impact on overall revenues.

A higher share price would help in so many ways! Bolt-on acquisitions must surely be on the company's radar, but until we get a higher share price, it will be difficult to make these acquisitions a reality.

But as the T&G buy note says, Mondas is undervalued! When will the market decide a rerating is in order? We can only hope that day is not far away.

My Best Regards to all Mondas shareholders.

Romeo

[andy man] 03/1/2007 15:23

Good Info Steve for shareholders.

We have a buyer! Price squeeze is on. Should see more of a rise by close.

Andy

[steve_wilson] 03/1/2007 14:46

Not surprised to see a change in direction today the earlier track down was uncalled for.

I have the T&G Buy note also.

Here are some useful extracts. Please not for recopying. SJW

Purely Timing
Earnings Revision
January 3, 2007

News of the slippage of a large licence extension is disappointing, but this does appear to be a pure timing issue. We are therefore upgrading our FY 2007 profit estimates. A prospective PER of less than 5x significantly undervalues a strengthened trading environment

...But The Trading Environment Has Strengthened Considerably

While news of this contract slippage is disappointing, the remainder of the trading update is supportive of the fact that this business is on a far stronger footing than it was on 12 months ago. Over the course of the year 26 new clients have been added, with the Blue Curve division, in particular, making strong progress – adding eight new clients and more than doubling revenues in the process. Significantly, a number of existing clients have extended licence terms, while further inroads have been made into the highly lucrative US market, reflected in the addition of a second US client for the Blue Curve product.

Investment Conclusion
Too Cheap Given Prospects And Recurring Base

Our forecast adjustments mean that our previous 1.8p EPS estimate for FY 2006
moves to 1.1p, and our 2.5p FY 2007 EPS estimate moves to 3.3p. This puts the stock on a prospective multiple of less than 5x – in our view, very much the wrong rating given prospects for the current year, and the fact that approximately 50% of the cost base is now underpinned by contracted support revenues.


Mondas does seem vastly undervalued

SJW

[mollymolly] 03/1/2007 13:52

Today T&G say BUY. Target price 25p.

Prospective p/e less than 5 on £1.2m forecast for 2007. "very much the wrong rating".

[rambutan2] 03/1/2007 13:08

most frustrating that missed forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

in fact rubbish!!!!!!!!!!

[magpie99] 03/1/2007 12:44

I did try to warn you all about the predictions of a 25 p share price by last Christmas and that the

share price would " easily get to 25p"

Even after this update from the management this share price does not even remotely seem to be able to rise to the challenge.

Worryingly there is no news about orders for our CAPS flagship system, the main reason why many of us invested.No news about whether HSBC will implement the system they have bought.

There is no evidence yet of any attempt by the management to get our company noticed by the press. No PR in evidence.Without a rising share price we will suffer unnecessary dilution from the BC earn out, making it harder for the share price to rise.

The progress made is encouraging, but we invested in Mondas to make money and want to see a rising share price and that to me on these numbers, as I have said before looks some way off.