Midas Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 28/9/2006 10:45

noted foresight's interims. remember, that if blue curve hits full earnout then they (the C shares) will own a fair chunk of mds. and it looks as though they could do with a bit of success...

[romeo] 28/9/2006 00:21

Thanks, Molly. Always appreciate your informative posts.

[mollymolly] 27/9/2006 17:27

Sorry Romeo, there is quite some way to go.

Several factors really, how much the projected profits are, how quickly might profits grow, and most importantly for Mondas how reliable is the projected revenue stream.

The current projections are showing about 50% pa growth. Pretty exciting, but how convincing can the company be about them. Take a look at GHT, they are loss making, but with a forward p/e of 100 on Dec 2007 profit. But they do have a very solid story. If Mondas can PROVE that it has a market leading position with both Blue Curve & CAPS and be convincing that major business will snowball then a much more exciting p/e than 9 will be justified. It seems reckless to suggest a p/e higher than 20 at present in which case the profits need to be close to £2m to justify your £1 share price.

How can Mondas be convincing? -- we need more orders. Another Global Bank or 2. Any big orders now will likely put significant profit into 2007, making that look safer. We have heard "increasing global opportunities for both CAPS and Blue Curve products" - we need to see some more fruit from these global opportunities.

I'm not predicting £1 anytime soon, but it does look possible again.

[romeo] 27/9/2006 14:03

What sort of profit numbers from Mondas would be needed to justify a share price of 1 quid?

[will b] 27/9/2006 09:59

Are Mondas going to make a success out of their business- By jove I think they are!

[rambutan2] 27/9/2006 09:57

yes, a swiss roll should offer some tasty recurring rev for caps.

and along with the global bank blue curve rollout will mean that both products will be on worldwide duty before too long.

rather a good ad for mondas.

[gac141] 27/9/2006 08:42

A global roll out with our larget client will be worth millions of pounds and support revenue will be substantial.

[mollymolly] 27/9/2006 08:24

amt,

Agree with you. I'm not sure about a raft of deals, but one or two new CAPS deals must be on the cards.

There is obviously not anything big or uncertain yet to do this year or the statement would have been a bit more cautious.

Do not underestimate the "global roll out" inc US to "largest customer". That will be very valuable.

[birdie4] 27/9/2006 08:12

Weathermen get it wrong all the time, this one will be no different!

[jw885] 27/9/2006 08:07

The obvious explanation for weatherman's post is that he is Tim Simon.

[gac141] 27/9/2006 07:59

Which appears to be highly unlikely

[mollymolly] 27/9/2006 07:45

Weatherman,

Taking T&G's numbers the p/e on Dec 2006 forecast is now about 8/9. If you want to look at the fully diluted number you must add back the interest paid on CULS.

The answer comes to about the same, ie a saving of around 300k adds 50% to the profit and the dilution adds a bit less than 50%. So still p/e of about 8 or 9.

What is a reasonable p/e for a business that has turned the corner from turmoil to a profitable business expected to grow at 50% pa for the next few years? Much Much more than 9!

Mondas only looks expensive if you expect it to continue to peform as it has in the past.

[cocker] 27/9/2006 07:44

could we have a unpecedented third day of the share price rising here @ mds?

[gac141] 27/9/2006 07:36

Weatherman I agree with rambutan2 but would welcome your reasoning too.

Industry average P/E is 18 (some below such as us and some way above ) we are currently on 9 ish I think 25p would be quite conservative. I see our way to at least 35p quite quickly. Admittedly we have been tarnished by false promises in the past but yesterday's comments by the company seem to bear out our optimism.

[amt] 27/9/2006 07:32

We need some news of more deals for CAPS to drive the share price The pipeline iss good but we need concrete evidence that these are converted. I would expect a whole raft of new deals over the next few months and eventually that should drive the share price

[rambutan2] 27/9/2006 02:19

not one trade after 9.47am yesterday!

i'm sure a few folks took a look (it was near the top of the gainer's list all day) but their interest was killed when they saw the spread of 16.5-19p. there are 4mms, don't they want any business? i've little doubt that on a 1p spread they would have seen plenty of action, both ways. mds needs some more investor interest and one way to help bring that about is if it gains a bit of liquidity. imho

[rambutan2] 26/9/2006 22:46

weatherman, expensive on what basis? please explain.

[weatherman] 26/9/2006 22:06

Add all those culs to the mkt cap at 25p and mds is looking expensive.

[marcy] 26/9/2006 15:39

Excellent news today it has completely changed my view on the future for Mondas. It looks secure, strong and successful.

Why anyone would mark Mondas a sell is beyond me. Probably sour grapes somewhere. Perhaps they sold out at 7-8p. Fools!

[mollymolly] 26/9/2006 15:21

I see that now 4 advfn users rate MDS a sell on the user sentiment. I think it was only two yesterday.

Yesterday I can understand, but the new ones today, I cannot.

It would be interesting for us to hear from these two, why do they think MDS is a Sell.

[smartie339] 26/9/2006 14:21

Agree insane!

[jw885] 26/9/2006 14:03

A very good day.

But we are only back now to the level of last Nov when Tim Simon crashed the share price by the announcing the sale of his stake.

Ceratinly Mondas are proving that they can do very well - lot of excitement to come.

Even Mondas' shell shocked investors will start to get excited again.

Huge upside from here, in my view. As smartie said earlier only the insane would mark Mondas a sell now.

[steve_wilson] 26/9/2006 13:44

Mondas has been through a metamorphosis.

The latest T&G Buy note is highly complementary about current management and the strength shown through difficult times. Indeed Mondas has changed in the last 2 years and all credit to them. Led from the front like never before.

Felt for 2 years Mondas could break through. They have. Loui w is obviously a highflying individual in a large investment bank He/She will know the difficulties faced in this sector. The highly positive comments reinforce the strong belief in the Mondas and its solutions to sophisticated buyers. Mondas has not got where it is by luck but by being able to deliver some highly complex and resilient products palatable to big banks needs.

Mondas is placed in an ideal and virtually unique position. Winning business will become more the norm and profits will mount up very quickly. The 2007 forecast could be doubled easily. Mondas is in its infancy but could mature at an unprecedented pace.

I am highly optimistic for the future will not be surprised to see further large contract wins soon.

SJW

[mollymolly] 26/9/2006 13:11

T&G have restated BUY with 25p target.

[spurious] 26/9/2006 13:05

Great to see Ian confirming what many shareholders feel.... That the current share price represents a real buying opportunity and the company is about to be seen to deliver big time
Regards share price