Metal Tiger Share Discussion Threads

[grantstevens] 26/5/2020 21:40

Sky this is a post I put a while back on beginning to evaluate NSR
I think it’s quite hard for investors to understand the NSR. This isn’t like investors looking at potential numbers of the value of in ground metal and relating to share price. This is real and won’t cost anything for MTR to get -no exploration or production budget.
So there will be value before production, royalty companies try and get these early, but the closer to production the more value.
Michael in proactive interview uses 5% discount which I assume drops off when in production.
So let’s assume the A4 deposit is the same size as T3. Currently Argonaut note say just on holes we have so far it looks 180kt contained Cu. From EM and new zone found however, and the fact we are dealing with higher grade Cu just the A4 area looks like it will be 2-3x bigger than T3.
T3 conservative reserves ( not inferred resources ) are about 350kt of contained Cu. That will change if SFR has been upgrading resource in time to review the DFS.
So let’s say 7000USD/t for the Cu and silver blend
350kt * 7000 = 2,450,000,000 usd
5% discount
2% NSR
USD 46,550,000 to MTR on equivalent to T3 resource.
Multiples as bigger.
Now there are some costs that have to come off for the final NSR figure- transportation, insurance etc but you get the general picture.

So the NSR is dependant ( unless bought out early by royalty Co) on SFR going into production and making decision to mine- well the economics were pretty good before, they are looking even better now satellite deposits will feed into T3. SFR say in interview that they are looking at moving the modular processor to 5.2mtpa. This will all come out in the new DFS.
SFR need production before Degrussa ends.
Will they get mining licence - well that’s the big one but the Bots gov have been very supportive, SFR in the Q&A say much simpler process than Black Butte, and v supportive. But that’s one of the reasons you put on the 5% discount.

This is before we even look beyond A4 and of course the KML 2% NSR but clearly KML needs more work but I hope has been informed by the new methodology of SFR EM reinterpretation

[skyship] 26/5/2020 21:15

Charaxes - thnx - will have to wait for Company or Simon Thompson (IC) updates...

[spittingbarrel] 26/5/2020 15:52

Thanks Sky

[charaxes1] 26/5/2020 15:03

Skyship. NAV almost impossible to calculate. The trading arm is not static. Also incredibly difficult to put a value on KML or any of the unquoted investments. Investment spend probably the only way to value it. The 2% Royalty Currently has no value attached to it. That will change once SFR issue an inferred resource on A4.

[skyship] 26/5/2020 14:52

Is anyone managing to track the NAV here?

[skyship] 26/5/2020 14:51

There is a lot of well-informed chat about an inflationary commodity boom after 1-2yrs of deflation. Gold is of course presaging the move...

[spittingbarrel] 26/5/2020 14:39

Sky - What makes you think there will be a commodity boom? Quite happy for you to be right, I am long of MTR.

[skyship] 26/5/2020 14:32

They look to be an interesting value-underwritten way to play the upcoming commodity boom.

[cbeadle] 26/5/2020 13:51

Thanks that’s great, they seem to be in a few juicy pies!

[charaxes1] 26/5/2020 13:49

Cbeadle. Because the investing community are waking upto Metal Tigers hidden value. It was bound to happen once investors understood the value of the royalty on Sandfire licence areas ex T3. Not forgetting KML as well. Some people have already tried to put a value on the royalty but still early days. Once SFR have finished there current drill program on A4 and issued an inferred resource then a value can be attached. It has the potential to be very very sizeable!

[cbeadle] 26/5/2020 13:39

Why is this flying, it’s going to break 2p at this rate today?

[grantstevens] 25/5/2020 10:28

More importantly Dreamtwister, those new assays from T4 wow. Sandfire resources RNS. NSR 2% looking even better

[grantstevens] 22/5/2020 09:46

I think this is a great move for MTR. Despite knowing that SFR will have exploration news coming up on A4 and decision to mine. The judgement is that SFR won’t go up as much as Trident will .
SFR share price and The type of shareholders It has tend to be more dividend driven and Cu price driven. I think that was shown by the SFR share price barely moving on the A4 news.
SFR as they drill out the resource will be going into a slight orphan period as it develops Bots and BB
A4 news for MTR will have much bigger impact as it will start to give figure for our NSR
So MTR have invested in Trident relative first mover in London re royalties and streaming.
The key for me is how much they have raised. They have Lim on the register (MOD) and Ashanti and Tamesis as advisors - big league with links to MOD, SAU MTR in the past. So I would imagine that there are big backers of this, the money raised isn’t retail PI.
So I envisage some great deals rapidly coming as Co’s struggling across a range of metals, they will then leverage some of those as is the norm to get more deals. Snowball effect.
It’s a good diversification as well from the other early stage exploration that MTR are involved in.

[uknighted] 22/5/2020 09:20

RNS Investment in Trident Resources

[kaos3] 20/5/2020 11:05

hope his estate will keep his shares as an investment and respectfull legacy