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Met Ltd Nm Investors - 2006

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Stock Type
Met Ltd Nm	2006	London	Ordinary Share

	Price Change	Price Change %	Share Price	Last Trade
	0.00	0.00%		-

Open Price	Low Price	High Price	Close Price	Previous Close

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Posted at 01/3/2006 12:57 by energyi Three Peaks Domed House Top is Forming Continue to Sell into Strength ... By Jeffrey A. Hirsch As the Dow dances with 11000 again it is becoming apparent to us that a major top is forming. Economists, market analysts and investors remain quite impressed with the data that has been released so for this year. This has contributed to the excessive bullish sentiment and complacency we are experiencing¡X levels associated with tops. Our 2006 Annual Forecast projects a first quarter 2006 high around Dow 11500. That is only 4% higher than today¡¦s new recovery high close of 11058.97. Despite all the cheerleading on the Street market internals have not been overly impressive and the major averages have struggled to make new highs. The Dow has inched up but NASDAQ and the S&P 500 remain below their highs. This brings us to the matter of the chart at the bottom of the page. The current Three Peaks and Domed House pattern we have been tracking is illustrated along with the end of the previous pattern. (Refer to the January 2006 and April 2005 issues for deep background on Three Peaks and Domed House Patterns.) From here we anticipate another Point 23 top soon. Then a retreat to a Point 28 near Point 14 on October 27, 2005 at Dow 10229.95¡Xa correction of 7.5% from today¡¦s close. However, we believe this will only be the first stop on the way down to a major bear market bottom later this year. 4th Year of Bull Quite a bit has been made of the length of the current bull market, and rightfully so. Few have lasted this long. Of the 34 bull markets since 1900 only six have gone past three years. Today¡¦s Dow high moves this bull into sixth place. From the October 9th three-year anniversary date the Dow is up 8%. This is nearing the average returns expected from the fourth year of bull markets. Bottom line is that 79% of these bull markets do not last this long, which adds to our belief that this bull¡¦s days are numbered. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 25/2/2006 14:50 by energyi Correction Time is Here! Marc Faber One month ago, I pointed out that investors were euphoric about buying everything. The same still applies as of today. Equity investors, commodity traders, property investors, art buyers and even bond fund managers are all bullish about the one or the other asset class. From figure 1, we can see that mutual fund cash positions in the US have declined to a record low and that such low readings have, in the past, preceded serious market corrections or bear markets. Figure 1: US Equity Mutual Fund Moreover, from the figure below we can also see that the US stock market has become technically over-bought and that such over-bought conditions have usually been followed by meaningful stock market corrections (see figure 2). As is the case for every stock market around the world, heavy buying by foreigners occurs usually near market tops, while foreign selling has always occurred very close to market lows such as we had in late 1998, in October 2002, and March 2003 (see figure 2). So, if we combine the over-bought condition of the stock market, investors¡¦ sentiment high optimism, equity mutual funds¡¦ low cash positions, and also heavy foreign buying, we have all the ingredients for a stock market correction in the US getting underway very shortly. There are two questions that preoccupy investors. What might the catalyst for such a correction be and when such a correction comes, which assets will decline the most and which ones will show resilience. In particular, investors in emerging stock markets are concerned that if the US stock market sold off, emerging stock markets would decline even more, as has always been the case in the past. @: Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 30/1/2006 09:25 by energyi Here's what the Pundets are saying: [b]"Fed Expected To Raise Interest Rates To 4.5% Tuesday[/b] NEW YORK (AP)--One and done. That's been Wall Street's mantra over the past few weeks as it anticipates the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate hike, expected Tuesday. One more hike, and the central bank is done. But the effect on stocks after this decision could be less exciting than many expect. While stocks have been volatile this month, much of the past week's gains were fueled not only by strong earnings, but also by investors' belief in the one- and-done theory. And there's strong evidence that Wall Street's interest rate prognosticators could be right. The economy is definitely slowing - fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose just 1.1% in the fourth quarter, very slow by most standards. Job growth has likewise lagged in recent months, and high energy prices still weigh on consumers. So if the Fed raises interest rates too much, consumers with variable-rate loans - credit cards, for example - will pay more, and have less to spend. And businesses, faced with lower consumer revenues, will also pay more to borrow money. The Fed is still widely expected to raise the nation's benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.5%. But it's also expected to signal that its rate hikes are near, or at, an end. Yet anyone expecting stocks to jump on Tuesday when the Fed makes its announcement will likely be disappointed, as Wall Street's reaction is already " baked in" to the price of stocks. And there's always the chance that the Fed could go for one more rate hike after Tuesday, a move that would likely pressure stocks for the rest of the week." ...MORE: = = = MY MANTRA will be: "three, four, five? Inflation's Alive" There are pressures on US inflation, which may force the Fed to KEEP rising rates. I reckon that there will be: + A rise Tuesday, + A stock market fall when it becomes apparent that is not the end, + A rise by Bernanke, + A rally in stocks, + A pause in rate cuts, but inflation picks up as rates rise, + A weakening dollar, + An evident need for further rises to fight inflation, and prop up the dollar, + A big fall in the stock market + Further rises in rates ALL within 2006 Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 23/1/2006 18:18 by energyi Marc Faber ========== Investment Themes for 2006 Marc Faber What strikes me most about the current investment environment is that everybody is bullish about something. Stock market investors around the world are positive for equity markets, traders involved in commodities are bullish about the prospects of resource prices, while bond investors are convinced that deflation is around the corner and that interest rates will resume their decline. In most countries, real estate investors are betting that property prices will continue to rise, while collectors are willing to pay at auctions record prices for paintings, jade, antiques, stamps, wines and other collectibles. Everybody seems to be convinced that the asset inflation we have experienced over the last few years will continue courtesy of Mr. Bernanke. Now, I do not doubt that if the Dow Jones Industrial Average and US home prices declined by 10% each in future, and as a result hurt US consumption, Mr. Bernanke, would print money like there was no tomorrow. After all we should expect that even a central banker will recognize that the US economic expansion 2001 ¡V 2006 depended on asset inflation fueled by debt growth. So, unless the Fed is prepared to accept a recession, this asset inflation will have to be reignited at all cost! However, whether in the next money-printing binge all assets will rise, is highly debatable. For one, I doubt that US dollar holders and long-term bond holders would feel comfortable holding fixed interest securities in a country where money printing was the order of the day. Therefore, on the slightest hint of even easier monetary policies than we already had, the first asset class to decline would be the US dollar. Last week, a renewed trend toward a lower dollar seems to have begun and my first recommendation for 2006 would be to short the US dollars. But short US dollars against what??? Based on current account surpluses and deficits, I suppose that, in 2006, the currencies of Asian countries, which have large current account surpluses, could increase in value against the US dollar and the Euro. In particular, I like, now, the Japanese Yen and the Singapore dollar. Needless to say that investors should remain short the US dollar against precious metals (since Mr. Bernanke has been appointed Fed Chairman gold has risen against the dollar from 470 to 550). Moreover, I doubt that in a weak US dollar environment, US long-term interest will decline further. So, while the first reaction to weaker economic growth in 2006 could be some strengthening of bond prices (declining interest rates), in a second instance bond prices are likely to tumble along with the US dollar. Therefore, I would use any strength in bond prices as a selling opportunity (see figure 2). . . . The last investment theme, I would like to discuss, are Taiwanese shares. Why? In 2003, I began to recommend the purchase of the Nikkei Index when it was around 8000 and after it had declined from 39,000 in late 1989. Since then it has doubled in value. The reason I liked Japanese shares at the time was that investors¡¦ sentiment about the outlook for the share market was ¡§extremely¡¨ negative and that cash positions among institutions and individuals were very high. But most importantly, the dividend yield on the Nikkei Index was higher than the yield on Japanese government bonds. From figure 6, we can see that a) Taiwanese shares have grossly underperformed Asian shares since 1998; and b) that the dividend yield on stocks is now about twice as high as the yield on Taiwanese government bonds. Lastly, the Taiwan Stock Exchange Index, which hovers around 6,500 is down from over 12,000 in 1990! Just, as a side, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average were to decline to half its 1990 level it would trade at just 1,200!! A word of caution: All asset markets (except for the US dollar and US bonds) have been very strong in the first ten days of January and I expect a correction to unfold in the second half of January, which will last at the very least into February. What concerns me most is that we are in the midst of a real investment rage, which in my opinion cannot offer to the contrarian investor particularly attractive entry points in asset markets. May be a good time to short assets! Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 28/12/2005 00:01 by knowing A sensible tip for 2006: SPS (Superscape) Superscape was trading as high as 60p (now 23p) on the promise of revenue growth and profitability. This was backed up by a sucessful placing of stock at 38p primarily to institutional investors. A profit warning was then issued which, due to a delay in deployments, saw the price obliterated to it's precent level. In reality the price drop was out of the hands of the SPS management team as the networks themselves had delayed getting the games to thier customers. If you read the recent news flow and follow the SPS thread you will see that deployments have actually beaten anything that was expected. This will exponentially increase the revenue to SPS and bring them to profitability very shortly. The worldwide growth in gaming is expected to explode and coupled with the fact that SPS is presently "up for sale" it could become a great New Years gift for any holders. Read Full Thread Reply

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