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Posted at 19/5/2006 20:22 by energyi (From Peter Eliades, as interviewed by Ike Iossiv)Four Year cycle is rolling over, and a decline to Dow-8,000 by late 2006 or early 2007 is possible. Whenever discount rate reaches 6% for the first time, the market is in big trouble- it tends to be a Death Knell for the stock market. Each time ¡V of the seven times it happened- there has been a BIG DECLINE, with the average decline of 30% over one year or so: sometimes quickly, like 1929 (only first part of the decline was in the average), sometimes slowly over a year or so McClellan Summation index went negative this week (below 1,000), and that is typically where the big declines come (within weeks or months), because this shows that momentum has been flagging for some months. Unprecedented long term sentiment indicators, suggest that the rally off the next 4 year cyclical low will be very modest. |
Posted at 15/5/2006 06:07 by energyi EGG-ON-FACE FORECAST??=========== Judge Jury - Mon, 27 Mar 06 : Housing pessimists are wrong but have their uses By GAVIN CAMERON, JOHN MUELLBAUER and ANTHONY MURPHY 27 March 2006 Financial Times Bubble? What bubble? The last Economic Outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development argues that UK house prices are overvalued by 30 per cent, or even more. It also warns of the danger of a protracted period of house price falls, with dire implications for consumer spending. The OECD is not alone. But these pessimists are wrong. If there were a bubble, there would exist a systematic, albeit temporary, deviation of prices from fundamentals. Our research shows, instead, that fundamentals adequately explain the current level of house prices. Like many others, the OECD appears to base its conclusions on two pieces of unreliable evidence. One is the ratio of house prices to rents. The second is an equation estimated by the International Monetary Fund in which housing supply, the population's changing age structure, shifts in UK credit conditions and nominal interest rates play no role. It is hardly surprising that this equation turns out to be useless. In our research, however, we do take these and other factors into account. We also model prices at the regional level. The great advantage of the latter is that it generates more precise estimates and more robust conclusions. Our econometric model satisfactorily explains price fluctuations from 1972 to 2003. It captures the effects of income, the size and age composition of the population, the housing stock and interest rates. It also builds in the effect of recent house price growth, including transmission from leading regions to others. We distinguish between short-run and long-run effects of house-building and population growth. We allow for the effects of stock markets and for differences between regions. We also examine the effect of today's easier credit conditions. These not only have a direct effect on real prices, but also change the relative importance of real and nominal interest rates: the former become more important and the latter less so. If we estimate our model for data up to 1996 and forecast the subsequent period, we generate predictions that are in line with the rapid price rises that happened. Our conclusion is that we can readily explain the evolution of prices in this recent period by lower interest rates, higher real incomes per household, higher population growth (partly from immigration) and low rates of house-building. If we compare what actually happened with what our model says would have occurred, we can state for example that house prices would have been 25 per cent lower in 2003 if real incomes per household had stagnated between 1998 and 2003. For 1988-99, however, now almost ancient history, we do find some symptoms of a policy-induced bubble. We also examined house price developments for 2004-10 on a range of assumptions about possible developments in income, population, house-building, inflation and interest rates. We find that only quite dismal scenarios - more dismal than any now contemplated by mainstream forecasters - would produce falls in nominal house prices and, even then, these would be small. London and the south are the regions where such scenarios would have the largest effects. If we assume just a mild slowdown in the economy for a couple of years, which is more pessimistic than today's consensus, house prices still rise in nominal terms. The figures for 2006 would be about a 3 per cent rise for London and 5 per cent overall. If we assume a gloomy scenario, in which inflation rises, interest rates increase by 1.5 percentage points, real per capita income does not grow and the stock market stagnates before resuming growth in 2008, house prices in London and the south decline by about 1 per cent in 2006 and 2007. Needless to say, still gloomier, though less probable, scenarios can produce national house price declines. The risks may be low, but they are not zero. Since cash from property investment trusts will be injected into the market in 2006 and the stock market has also been so strong, the deterioration in housing affordability is likely to à-continue. The believers in the bubble were wrong. They are still wrong. But, paradoxically, their alarmism may have helped to prevent the bubble they fear from developing. It has not, or at least not yet. Gavin Cameron is at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford. John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy are at Nuffield College, Oxford. Full article at www.housingoutlook.c @: |
Posted at 20/3/2006 11:55 by asparks You may already have seen this - if not, maybe of interest. I think we will see many "green incentives" in this budget. A good time to invest in alternative/renewablThe Times March 06, 2006 Budget could hold a shock for 4x4 drivers By Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter GORDON BROWN is expected to announce a tax clampdown on gas-guzzling cars in the Budget, in an effort to tackle climate change and boost revenues. The Chancellor is examining proposals from the RAC Foundation for a new £200 top rate of vehicle excise duty, to cover cars that produce more than 250g of carbon dioxide per kilometre. The Foundation has called on the Chancellor to combine the increase with tax cuts for more environmentally friendly cars. MacIntyre Hudson, the chartered accountants and business advisers, suggested that the odds of Mr Brown introducing such a scheme on March 22 were 2-1. However, insiders have suggested that the Chancellor may simply announce his interest in such a scheme this month, leaving implementation to a later date. Victor Dauppe, tax principal at MacIntyre Hudson, said: "Any nasty shocks, such as an increase to national insurance contributions or the standard rate of VAT, are unlikely. Instead, the Budget could provide the Chancellor with the opportunity to pursue some of his current hobby horses: promoting green policies, attacking city bonuses and tax avoidance." Last month Malcolm Wicks, the Energy Minister, told The Times of his keenness to counter the "crass irresponsibility" of those who drive large 4x4s around the suburbs. Road transport accounts for a fifth of Britain's CO2 emissions. Last year a record 187,000 4x4s were sold in Britain. |
Posted at 12/3/2006 19:38 by energyi Dan Zanger's Market Comments:============ Rising long term rates and High oil prices: lead to choppy behaviour. No happy endings ahead. Stocks will look good for a few days then get crashed. Strong bull market for three years, and the cycle is turning. MAJOR BREAKDOWN coming. Weak rallies, indicative of distribution. Big caps are moving, but not much. Smaller stocks not behaving well. The market will get "absolutely crushed" in August and September. October, 2nd week: A powerful lift-off? (from MarketViews interview, March 2006) Site: ((sunday & wed. nights)) |
Posted at 03/3/2006 22:05 by energyi "Somebody is out there buying the dips and selling the top of the range. In other words, somebody is scale trading the Dow -- and very successfully at that!" (solidly beating the other indices, assuming a waterfall-like event doesn't make Americans swear off stocks like the plague for a long time to come. The reason? It's all about trend, and as the great post-WWII baby boom crowd starts going into retirement in earnest, they are going to want their retirement cushions located in the safest, most profitable stocks, especially as they feel inflation's bite become more severe. The DJIA has the highest percentage of dividend-payers over all other indices. Ergo, an increasing chunk of America's retirement money is going to end up there. JMHO) BUT... Carver remains Bullish: + the long term studies show that dividends are the larger return from stocks. For retirement accounts, the tax question is moot. And, we all know, boomers are pouring oodles of cash into retirement accounts. It's called "catch-up contributions." And, it's the major reason why being a bear is like a salmon swimming upstream. Re: Market Crash Predictor Posted By: Bob Carver Date: Friday, 3 March 2006, at 12:54 p.m. In Response To: Market Crash Predictor (Ameagle) They're a little late, aren't they? I couldn't read the article, but I did call the crash ahead of time myself. The technique I used was polytrendlines - the crash of 1929 had exactly the same configuration as the 1987 crash in terms of polytrendlines. Piece of cake, actually (and, yes, I was short starting a week before the crash). : A University of Tokyo team, led by Yoshiharu : Yamamoto, studied the Standard & Poor : 500 market. Fluctuations in the market were : found to normally follow a bell curve : small changes having a higher probability : than large ones. However, in the 2 months : before the Black Monday crash of October 19, : 1987, they discovered that all fluctuations : became equally likely. |
Posted at 01/3/2006 12:57 by energyi Three Peaks Domed House Top is FormingContinue to Sell into Strength ... By Jeffrey A. Hirsch As the Dow dances with 11000 again it is becoming apparent to us that a major top is forming. Economists, market analysts and investors remain quite impressed with the data that has been released so for this year. This has contributed to the excessive bullish sentiment and complacency we are experiencing¡X levels associated with tops. Our 2006 Annual Forecast projects a first quarter 2006 high around Dow 11500. That is only 4% higher than today¡¦s new recovery high close of 11058.97. Despite all the cheerleading on the Street market internals have not been overly impressive and the major averages have struggled to make new highs. The Dow has inched up but NASDAQ and the S&P 500 remain below their highs. This brings us to the matter of the chart at the bottom of the page. The current Three Peaks and Domed House pattern we have been tracking is illustrated along with the end of the previous pattern. (Refer to the January 2006 and April 2005 issues for deep background on Three Peaks and Domed House Patterns.) From here we anticipate another Point 23 top soon. Then a retreat to a Point 28 near Point 14 on October 27, 2005 at Dow 10229.95¡Xa correction of 7.5% from today¡¦s close. However, we believe this will only be the first stop on the way down to a major bear market bottom later this year. 4th Year of Bull Quite a bit has been made of the length of the current bull market, and rightfully so. Few have lasted this long. Of the 34 bull markets since 1900 only six have gone past three years. Today¡¦s Dow high moves this bull into sixth place. From the October 9th three-year anniversary date the Dow is up 8%. This is nearing the average returns expected from the fourth year of bull markets. Bottom line is that 79% of these bull markets do not last this long, which adds to our belief that this bull¡¦s days are numbered. |
Posted at 23/1/2006 18:18 by energyi Marc Faber========== Investment Themes for 2006 Marc Faber What strikes me most about the current investment environment is that everybody is bullish about something. Stock market investors around the world are positive for equity markets, traders involved in commodities are bullish about the prospects of resource prices, while bond investors are convinced that deflation is around the corner and that interest rates will resume their decline. In most countries, real estate investors are betting that property prices will continue to rise, while collectors are willing to pay at auctions record prices for paintings, jade, antiques, stamps, wines and other collectibles. Everybody seems to be convinced that the asset inflation we have experienced over the last few years will continue courtesy of Mr. Bernanke. Now, I do not doubt that if the Dow Jones Industrial Average and US home prices declined by 10% each in future, and as a result hurt US consumption, Mr. Bernanke, would print money like there was no tomorrow. After all we should expect that even a central banker will recognize that the US economic expansion 2001 ¡V 2006 depended on asset inflation fueled by debt growth. So, unless the Fed is prepared to accept a recession, this asset inflation will have to be reignited at all cost! However, whether in the next money-printing binge all assets will rise, is highly debatable. For one, I doubt that US dollar holders and long-term bond holders would feel comfortable holding fixed interest securities in a country where money printing was the order of the day. Therefore, on the slightest hint of even easier monetary policies than we already had, the first asset class to decline would be the US dollar. Last week, a renewed trend toward a lower dollar seems to have begun and my first recommendation for 2006 would be to short the US dollars. But short US dollars against what??? Based on current account surpluses and deficits, I suppose that, in 2006, the currencies of Asian countries, which have large current account surpluses, could increase in value against the US dollar and the Euro. In particular, I like, now, the Japanese Yen and the Singapore dollar. Needless to say that investors should remain short the US dollar against precious metals (since Mr. Bernanke has been appointed Fed Chairman gold has risen against the dollar from 470 to 550). Moreover, I doubt that in a weak US dollar environment, US long-term interest will decline further. So, while the first reaction to weaker economic growth in 2006 could be some strengthening of bond prices (declining interest rates), in a second instance bond prices are likely to tumble along with the US dollar. Therefore, I would use any strength in bond prices as a selling opportunity (see figure 2). . . . The last investment theme, I would like to discuss, are Taiwanese shares. Why? In 2003, I began to recommend the purchase of the Nikkei Index when it was around 8000 and after it had declined from 39,000 in late 1989. Since then it has doubled in value. The reason I liked Japanese shares at the time was that investors¡¦ sentiment about the outlook for the share market was ¡§extremely¡¨ negative and that cash positions among institutions and individuals were very high. But most importantly, the dividend yield on the Nikkei Index was higher than the yield on Japanese government bonds. From figure 6, we can see that a) Taiwanese shares have grossly underperformed Asian shares since 1998; and b) that the dividend yield on stocks is now about twice as high as the yield on Taiwanese government bonds. Lastly, the Taiwan Stock Exchange Index, which hovers around 6,500 is down from over 12,000 in 1990! Just, as a side, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average were to decline to half its 1990 level it would trade at just 1,200!! A word of caution: All asset markets (except for the US dollar and US bonds) have been very strong in the first ten days of January and I expect a correction to unfold in the second half of January, which will last at the very least into February. What concerns me most is that we are in the midst of a real investment rage, which in my opinion cannot offer to the contrarian investor particularly attractive entry points in asset markets. May be a good time to short assets! |
Posted at 19/1/2006 18:01 by energyi Bob Carver ...sees a February rollover ... ... and an October 2006 Low: (in reaction to: looks like a lower high in the volume oscillator) "a larger Magic-T is building with a centerpost in October. We're in the accumulation phase of a much bigger move to the upside, which should start at the October low with the expected bottom in the 4-year cycle. - Here's Why Posted By: Bob Carver Date: Thursday, 19 January 2006, at 7:23 p.m. In Response To: Re: We Will Know After the Big One (Steven) ( Bob, Do you know why he centres his T at the end of 2002, thus predicting March 2007 as a high? Do you agree? Is it because it's a split bottom and thus he has placed his T in the centre of the split?) The reason is that he is putting it in middle of the triple bottom. He has found the projections to be more accurate when he does that. I think you have to look on the long term Ts as simply an indication of approximately how long the uptrend will last and use more precise tools (including shorter term Ts) as you approach the right side of the large T. For instance, his 1987 T had a right side which finished up in late 1999, but for the SPX and NASDAQ, the actual top was in March 2000. The Dow, of course, topped in January 2000. So, you can probably start to get more prone to selling at those late cycle tops because one of them is going to be the top before the really big bear market and you don't want to overstay your welcome. (Intestingly, if the T was placed at the March 2003 low, which also corresponds with a sharp advance/breakout in the A-D line, you would then get a projected top of March 2008. Very interesting "stuff" indeed. : Steven ) Personally, I think we could easily have a 20-40% "correction" in 2007, then just keep on climbing into the 2013-2018 period (former for the US, latter for Australia). |
Posted at 14/1/2006 18:16 by energyi Real Estate Prices Decline in 2006 In 2006, we are already seeing signs of a slowdown in the housing market. In recent weeks, home loan applications have fallen to a 3 _ year low. I believe that most everyone who could take advantage of the low interest rates and exotic mortgages have already done so. The continual rise in interest rates will undoubtedly price new home buyers out of the market. Even with an interest only loan or an adjustable rate mortgage, higher interest rates will most clearly mean higher mortgage payments. Given the fact that your average American consumer has negative savings and that the average income is not rising sharply, I see a sharp decline in the demand for new home sales in 2006. Coupled with a decline in the demand for new home sales, will be an increase of available homes on the market. This increase in supply will likely come from the following sources: 1. New Homes Still Being Built Even in the midst of declining home loan applications, there are still new homes being built. Because of the multi year rise in real estate prices, home builders have scrambled to build homes and profit from this irrational real estate demand. As a result, there are still a number of developments in the works and new homes that will soon come on the market. 2. The Speculative Home Buyer According to the National Associations of Realtors, 36 % of the home sales in 2004 were second home purchases. Although I haven't been able to find out the number for 2005, I can assume that the percentage is even higher. As real estate prices start declining, I believe you will see the speculative home buyers sell their houses and take profits (or cut their losses). Because most of these second home buyers view these homes as an investment, they are more quickly to act in the midst of declining real estate prices. 3. The Over-extended Buyer As it stands, the average American has negative savings. In addition, because they have adjustable rate mortgages, they will be forced to pay more on their mortgage as interest rates continue to head higher. Most of these home buyers do not have the necessary savings income growth potential to keep up with rise of their mortgage. As a result, the likely scenario is that these homeowners will be forced to default on their mortgages and walk away from their homes. In the midst of growing inflationary concerns, I believe that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in 2006. The degree to which they raise interest rates will determine how fast this real estate market will begin to unravel. The Real Estate Burst Effect on the Economy Without question, the real estate bubble has fueled this US economy in the last several years. I am amazed at the amount of times I have heard about a friend or neighbor who decided to refinance their home, get an adjustable rate mortgage, and take cash out for some type of trivial expenditure. Why not? They would argue. I just made a 200k profit this year. This same irrational exuberance reminds me of the "paper millionaires" in the Dotcom era who pointed to their stock portfolio as a means to justify their spending. Although this spending served to fuel the economy, it also served to further fuel this bubble and send your typical consumer further and further into debt. In the future, those that can afford to pay the additional amount on their higher mortgage will have to "tighten their belt" and not spend as much money in the economy. Consequently, they will hold on to their car a couple of years longer, not frequent their local restaurant as often, and cut back on their overall spending. In turn, this will flow into the economy and we will most likely see a much needed recession as individuals refocus on savings and the re-accumulation of wealth. The Implications of an Upcoming Recession Generally speaking, a recession is a prolonged period of time where the economy is contracting. During a recession, you will most likely see consumers spending less money and saving more, a subsequent decline in the stock market, a rise in unemployment, and a decline in real estate prices. ...MORE: |
Posted at 02/1/2006 10:55 by james111 This thread is where I am putting my ideas for 2006, I will be investing in around 10 stocks putting in an circa £10k in each, I will not sell durring 2006, on Dec 31st 2006. I will compare the percentage gain/loss against my trading portfolio.Some stocks are already bought ie durring last few days of 2005 others will be purchased in the first 2 weeks of january. All comments are appreciated, maybe you could tell me your ideas for winners. Lets hope we all have a great and profitable year. Regards James |
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