Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[marben100] 08/10/2007 10:52

Aye, aye... looks like new stock shipping now. Just got this e-mail from menalamode:

We are pleased to inform you that our new Autumn/Winter 07 collections from the leading Designers are now available for purchasing at www.menalamode.com.

Hurry up! Place an order and get your "maximum Style" with "minimum effort".

Oliver Spencer- New to Men a la Mode

Pringle- New to Men a la Mode

- New to Men a la Mode

Dormeuil- New to Men a la Mode


And Vivienne Westwood, Paul & Joe, , Holland Esquire, , Nicole Farhi and more!


There is no reason not to be more stylish than ever this winter.





[My Bold]

Cheers,

Mark

[momentos] 08/10/2007 08:00

Spam deleted by ADVFN central.

Your post is 23 19, which if you are a monster is very bad news....

[dan de lion] 08/10/2007 07:29

What happened to 2316.

[smarm] 08/10/2007 07:26

taffee - no, MPH is on the new SETSQX which is still controlled by MM's but has periodic auctions. Check out LSE site for more.

S

[taffee] 08/10/2007 07:11

GREAT NEWS MPH NO LONGER CONTROLLED BY MARKET MAKERS

NOW ON SETS MM AND INVESTORS CAN PUT ORDERS DIRECTLY ON ORDER BOOK

[nardelli] 07/10/2007 18:51

could be the same as barclays, RNS will post after order is filled, why would the company want the share price up if they were buying, to cancel the shares.

probably toping up myself next week,

[wbjunior] 07/10/2007 15:53

Argy2 it could be they want to conserve cash resources for pending acquisition and it must be something special or they would as you say had bought a lot more shares to cancel by now, here's hoping................wbj

[argy2] 07/10/2007 09:51

If so, I'm surprised they are not more aggressive about it and taking advantage of the MMs reluctance to move the share price.We need momentum.

[taffee] 07/10/2007 09:13

I believe the company have been buying shares

[dan de lion] 05/10/2007 16:26

Could that 20k be a buy in?

Good summary Marben.

Shore Capital are also forecasting 19.6p eps this year 26.1p eps next, virtually identical to Hardmans.

[momentos] 05/10/2007 13:51

Plenty of chunky lumps being thrown around....

20k on here, a couple of 10ks on Plus.

[marben100] 05/10/2007 12:15

Hi momentos,

Marben, do you have any take on where the dosh comes from this year to get to 20p EPS?

I am not claiming any special knowledge or insight here but simply going on Hardman's forecast, which management endorse. Nevertheless, your question is a very good one, so let's have a closer look.

One observation I'd make immediately. I don't think it makes much sense to look at net margins on a segment by segment basis. I believe that quite a few of the central costs are shared (eg director bonuses :0)), so I think the approach to take is to look at gross profit on a segment by segment basis and then deduct overall central costs to arrive at a net figure.

Start with the revenue/gross profit in each business segment. Hardman forecast the following turnover breakdown (which presumably reflects management's view):

Greenmark 44%
Ungaro 34%
JCC 18%
Homebody 2%
Boateng 2%

So, we can forget Homebody & Boateng for this year as insignificant.

Greenmark

Hardman say this about Greenmark:

Last year Greenmark sold circa 2.5m pairs of shoes. This year Marchpole expects Greenmark to sell around 3.1m pairs of shoes at a similar price point, adding a potential £7m to its top line.

Given that Greenmark turnover for 2005 was £24m, we can take this £7m as the assumed gross profit (against an '05 figure of £3.6m). MPH said this in the AGM statement:

We are pleased to report that the integration of Greenmark Limited, the ladies footwear designer and importer, which was acquired in March 2007, has been successful and we are seeing increased sales and improved margins. (worth noting again, for new readers, that by the time of the AGM MPH will have pretty good visibility of the full-year figures, given that order books for spring/summer 08 close on October 15th and deliveries/invoices should be complete by the Y/E of 31th March).

So whilst ambitious, not implausible.


Ungaro

AGM statement:

The current financial year has started in line with expectations with our Spring/Summer 2008 collections having been well received and forward order books building as anticipated. Sales of Emanuel Ungaro and Ungaro Homme in Europe, including the UK, are encouraging and in line with our expectations and demand for the new Emanuel Ungaro first line, designed by Franck Boclet, has exceeded our expectations.

Very hard to know what this translates into in terms of gross profit. However, given anticipated to be 34% of sales, vs 44% for Greenmark and the gross margins are likely to be better, as Greenmark is relatively low margin business, a further £7m does not seem implausible.


JCC

AGM statement:

Our wholly owned brand Jean Charles de Castelbajac ('JCC') continues to enjoy both increased sales, and increased licensing income. On a like-for-like basis JCC sales have delivered an increase of 5%, and increased licensing income has derived from both new licences and royalty income which has more than doubled on existing licences.

Pure guesswork, but let's suppose £5m gross from that


EPS

Totting those up, we get an overall gross profit figure of £19m, against £27m last year. Looking at Hardman's breakdown, they're going for £23m – so I hope I'm underestimating.

At the AGM, MM stressed that the board anticipated lower costs than last year. In 06/07 we had exceptionally high distribution costs of £4.23m, with £3.69m concentrated in 2H. Presumably, this was due to shifting huge volumes of YSL merchandise. Figures for '05 and '06 were £4.0m and £2.2m respectively. A guess of £3m for 08 seems reasonable to me... and Hardman say £3.6m

Admin costs have run as follows: 05 - £7.0m, 06 - £9.1m, 07 - £14.9m. £1.7m of the 07 figure was director bonuses. I will guess that they can get the 08 figure back down to £12m... and Hardman say £11.4m.

If we use the Hardman figures, we arrive at an operating profit of £8.2m.

Financing costs were £1.05m in 1H07 and £0.68m in 2H07, reflecting strong cash generation. Hardman's forecast of £0.5m for 07/08 does not seem unreasonable. That leads to a pre-tax profit of £7.8m, £5.5m post-tax at a rate of 30% and hence an EPS of 20p.


Conclusion

Hardman's figures don't seem impossible but are pretty demanding. We'll just have to wait and see whether MPH achieve them.

Regards,

Mark

[momentos] 05/10/2007 10:57

Shouldnt take much to shift this again.

12k buys over on Plus.

[wbjunior] 05/10/2007 08:06

Morning everyone, lets see some of that blue stuff again today, off for rest of day so have a good weekend and keep the faith, all will be revealed come the interim numbers.................................wbj

[momentos] 05/10/2007 06:27

Ahhh.. but they have bought. Which on recent evidence means one of two things... Were going up to 114p or down to 80p.

[dan de lion] 04/10/2007 19:08

British bullsh*t`s candlestick`s do not seem to match events.

[momentos] 04/10/2007 15:40

And whoever chucked that 5k sell in just as I posted can pee off!

[momentos] 04/10/2007 15:19

Tide slowly turning.....

About 28k on Plus, only 901 sells. Here about 18k buys vs 6k sells. Yesterday was about 61k buys v 15k sells all in.

04/10/2007 14:11:17 113.84 6250 O 711500.00
04/10/2007 12:10:38 113.84 10000 O 1138400.00
04/10/2007 11:45:56 113.95 500 O 56975.00
04/10/2007 11:28:18 113.95 5000 O 569750.00
04/10/2007 11:23:49 113.75 5000 O 568750.00
04/10/2007 11:17:10 113.50 99 O 11236.50
04/10/2007 08:37:58 112.10 903 O 101226.30

Seller either changed tactics to a big T trade or finished, seems a lack of 5k drops last couple of days....

[wbjunior] 04/10/2007 13:57

Topped up my two grandchildrens accounts, 65 shares in one and 99 in the other, one trade showing on plus and one on the normal, wonder why that is both trades actioned through squaredeal........................wbj

Yes I know its not alot but all the loose change I had around lol

[wbjunior] 04/10/2007 13:36

Is this the start of the journey once again back up? certainly hope so and this time breaking well through the £2 barrier................happier wbj when blue is around.