Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[momentos] 04/10/2007 10:44

Lovely tight spread as well 1p.

Marben, do you have any take on where the dosh comes from this year to get to 20p EPS?

JCC (All) Perhaps 1m = 4p max.
Boateng NO Contrib?
Greenmark As before 2.1m = 8p (actually hoping to sell 20% more - so could be 10p)
HOmebody - No Contrib
Moda America - 2p perhaps or Nil?
Ungaro UK - At a net profit margin of 9% (roughly, if anything less than, YSL Historic) Each 3m of sales delivers 1p EPS.
Ungaro (ROW) - 2p perhaps or Nil?

Each 270k Bottom line profit post tax = 1p EPS (state the bleeding obvious!)

[bletherer] 04/10/2007 10:42

Taffee - much too early IMO to be talking about breaking out of a downtrend. It has come straight down since late June so is way overdue a rally of some sort and there is a lot of support around these levels. But it's probably going to meet plenty of resistance on the way back up, with 120, 130, and 150 looking likely points for sellers to come back in. There will be plenty of disappointed bulls who bought in earlier in the year looking to get out and cut their losses when they can find a better price. Though it looks dirt cheap to me at these levels the big rally and then reversal it's experienced in the course of this year is likely to put a big dampener on sentiment going forward. It should find a floor around here, I agree, but I'm not optimistic about large rises anytime soon - unless they come out with some genuinely exciting news, of course.

[momentos] 04/10/2007 10:29

NOw are you sure you got your point across taffee?

[taffee] 04/10/2007 10:28

looks like its breaking out of its downtrend guys and girls.

[taffee] 04/10/2007 10:28

looks like its breaking out of its downtrend guys and girls.

[taffee] 04/10/2007 10:28

looks like its breaking out of its downtrend guys and girls.

[momentos] 04/10/2007 10:15

Ooh tickup...


Interims 15th November Last Year, 16th NOvember previous (both Wednesdays).

So presuming they can find someone to do the accounts in time you would expect WEd 14th this year.....

[taffee] 04/10/2007 08:10

when you look at the fy results though thats quite a performance......wouldn't be surprised to see mm or someone take this private

Must be a few peeps looking at it....I mean 45% drop after record results makes no sense at all.

[wbjunior] 04/10/2007 07:57

Taffee lets hope mph interim,s are as good, it's what we need to get back to a sensible company valuation. I have also read in Ted Bakers financial report that bonuses are limited to one years salary which seem a prudent idea in my view and one mph should adhere too. The dividend payout ratio is also greater with tbk and perhaps mph should also look at this in the light of the bonus payments made to Directors.............................regards..................wbj

[taffee] 04/10/2007 07:37

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Shares in fashion brand Ted Baker were higher
in early trade after the company reported pretax profit of 7 mln stg for the 28
weeks to Aug 11, flat compared with a year ago, prompting Landsbanki to
reiterate its 'buy'.
At 8.25 am, Ted Baker shares were up 9 pence at 503-1/2.
Sales increased by 8.3 pct to 66.2 mln stg from 61.1 mln stg.
In a note in reaction, Landsbanki said the results were slightly below
estimates, but retained its 'buy' rating due to a recent sharp sell-off in the
shares, which seemed wholly unjustified.
It said the valuation looks substantially too low given the earnings
outlook. As the contraction of the UK wholesale business slows and the
international operations gain more traction, the broker expects a valuation
premium to re-establish itself.
Seymour Pierce reiterated its 'outperform' rating

[dan de lion] 04/10/2007 01:12

Not sure what the point is that I was going to make, but I am not yet over the jet lag and alcohol is taking it`s toll, but whilst I have been away at a top resort 5*+, it was obvious that the European hoi poli had the dollars to and were, wearing the sort of up market gear that is MPH`s stock in trade, all except the Brits, who in general, were into George.
Make what you will of that, tomorrow I will be sober, sorry, I mean later today.

[eagle eye3] 03/10/2007 18:19

the last one got a million

[argy2] 03/10/2007 13:52

Morris just become a dad again so hopefully he'll start buying shares for his new daughter soon! If so, he needs to play the 5k seller at their own game and in conjunction with the company buy in several blocks of 10-25k rather than one big hit imho.That will have the momentum going the right way.

[momentos] 03/10/2007 13:13

Looks like you started something DDL / Marben!

Plus:

03/10/2007 13:42:35 112.70 2500 O 281750.00
03/10/2007 13:42:33 112.70 2500 O 281750.00
03/10/2007 13:36:35 113.00 885 O 100005.00
03/10/2007 13:20:13 112.70 7000 O 788900.00
03/10/2007 13:07:26 112.40 2500 O 281000.00
03/10/2007 13:04:07 112.40 3000 O 337200.00
03/10/2007 13:02:49 112.38 5470 O 614718.60
03/10/2007 12:46:36 112.40 10000 O 1124000.00
03/10/2007 12:40:35 113.00 5000 O 565000.00
03/10/2007 11:26:51 111.75 2500 O 279375.00

Here
13:19:28 A4002MHN0D 112.85 5000
13:28:29 A4002MHN4W 112.68 4000
13:49:31 A4002MHNFZ 112.75 3991

[momentos] 03/10/2007 13:06

At a go

JCC:

Europe / ROW income Last year was c6m sales, 866k Royalties (AR p27). Worldwide royalties were 1.46m. Not sure what these can be other than predominantly CC. there are some Ungaro sub licences but relatively new.

AGM statement:"On a like-for-like basis JCC sales have delivered an increase of 5%, and increased licensing income has derived from both new licences and royalty income which has more than doubled on existing licences."

So perhaps heading for license income of 3m if we include a small contribution from perfume from Jan 2008. Perfume royalties were 4% on an est (2003) turnover of Euro 30m (c GBP800k). How it is performing now.. who knows.

SO JCC should sling in a few hundred grand this year perhaps a million, accelerating next.

Boateng

No idea. With his brand profile this should be making bundles. Never broken out though. Perhaps braking even. Perhaps making a mint!

Greenmark

"For the year ended 31 December 2005, in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, Greenmark's annual turnover was #24.1 million (2004: #23.9 million) and profit before tax was #3.2 million (2004: #2.5 million). As at 31 December 2005, the gross assets of Greenmark were #8.7 million and net assets of Greenmark were #7.2 million."

Nothing to suggest any major downturn in this position so perhaps can assume a pbt of min 3m.

Homebody

Turnover under 1m but growing. At this stage can only assum is loss making and needing investment.

Moda America

AR figures say Notrh America Sales 8.4m (say USD 17m) operating profit 85k. Down from usd18m 2004 at acquisition and vs 2005 forecast usd25m, 2006 AR is part year). NO transparency in AGM statement.

Can only assume still at break even.

Ungaro UK

NO idea, but gaining traction in UK market. "Sales of Emanuel Ungaro and Ungaro Homme in Europe, including the UK, are encouraging and in line with our expectations" (AGM) Whatever they are. Hope I dont regret relying on the companies use of the words "our expectations" vs "market expectations"!

Pre-termination YSL revenues were perhaps 30m (pre sell through bounce figures)


Ungaro WW

Who knows, but recent deals and Franck Boclet on board bodes well.

Sorry started well finished badly but we have very little transparency on Ungaro and I was getting bored anyway!

NOt sure what that adds up to...

[momentos] 03/10/2007 12:34

Should try and break out the performance by the various bits really:

JCC (All)
Boateng
Greenmark
HOmebody
Moda America
Ungaro UK
Ungaro (ROW)

Marchpole holds the everything everywhere menswear license for Ungaro now as far as I am aware.

[verulamium] 03/10/2007 12:31

I have to be lucky once in a while! Yes, it was late June/early July...the sales starting so early set a few alarm bells ringing as well.

I'm unlikely to pick the bottom, but hopefully will join you for a nice run up at some stage.

[wbjunior] 03/10/2007 12:27

Had email from Matt13 who is still holding and recons its a great buying opportunity, although he did say these's would be £5 by Christmas, I will have to clarify the year with him.....lol............wbj

[momentos] 03/10/2007 12:14

lol.. The one thing is you took the right decision to get out at the time!! Presumably about July (160p-ish)?

50p a share better off.... So congrats, up to you whether you join on for the next ride. Profit warning and we will be caned back to 60p, if its looking good: £2 here we come!

Where will she blow, nobody knows! (well at least noone thats telling).

The guy at Barclays with 11% at way up from here must be getting a little nervous...

[verulamium] 03/10/2007 12:04

Good replies all. May get a few before the interims with a view to getting more afterwards - life does feel a bit too safe and dull with no MPH at all...

[momentos] 03/10/2007 11:59

Looking at Debenhams website, quiet a bit of other stuff was 50% off. Of course the Ungaro stuff being part of it doesnt help.

Neither does the drive by many depatrment stored to try to segment their business into own brand (Linea etc) stuff and premium designer stuff only. This has increasingly been tried / done by JL, HOF, Debenhams. Moss Bros do the same creating their own in house brands To succeed Marchpole need to either ensure they have good enough product for the higher end, or ensuring theer product is good enough to be taken alongside the existing less premium in house brand stuff.

I think there is and always will be a differentiation, whatever the in-house made-up brand is, people spot it and it usually has a cachet of being a bit naff. There will always be demand for quality - and having money isn't necessarily the object, cf Burberry and similar... Somehow people find it when personal identity is at stake.

[dan de lion] 03/10/2007 11:41

Just bought another 5,000 @ £1.13.

[marben100] 03/10/2007 11:38

Thing is V, MPH are on a prospective P/E closer to 5 than 10. [Not that I'm against oilies - have a couple of those in my porty myself, as well as the odd miner].

However, your view, which is entirely reasonable, is precisely why the share price is where it is. So if the numbers turn out as promised and the outlook looks OK, I'm expecting buying interest to return, which could lead to a nice double bagging - and the prospective P/E still remaining around a hardly expensive 10.

Remember that for next year (and onwards) MPH have opened up a load of new sales channels (JC/DC, Colombia etc), so plenty of scope for sales growth, or at least stability, which is all that is needed to support the SP, even if the UK/US sags. From Momentos' latest intelligence, it also appears that MPH are opening up new markets/channels for Greenmark products. All-in-all, quite promising when you take a long-term view, notwithstanding the cyclical backdrop.

Might be worth being up bright & early interims day, to see whether you like the numbers and outlook, if they're not already priced in by then :0)

Cheers,

Mark