Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[buffettjnr] 20/2/2022 15:01

I don’t think the share falls more than 30% though. Might give a great buying opportunity.

This could be the last deal that gets done before the window closes…

[sikhthetech] 20/2/2022 13:52

I think NAS will continue buying up to 605p and hope they can get more investors on board. If they increase their offer it could be to 620p-650p.

The risk is that if they walk away then the share price will fall back plus they are likely to sell their holding, therefore putting more pressure on the share price

Currently I see these as lower risk than a lot of other companies, which could get hammered with interest rate rises and Russia/Ukraine situation.

The next 2 weeks should be the decider either way.

[convb] 19/2/2022 12:40

This is a hostile takeover.

'Agility buys 13% of Menzies stock as hostile takeover bid gains pace'
hxxps://theloadstar.com/agility-buys-13-of-menzies-stock-as-hostile-takeover-bid-gains-pace/

This is like a series of Succession!

700p plus before March 9th!!!!!

win win for all MNZS holder!

[convb] 19/2/2022 12:35

If you are asking me why I don't buy more, the reason is I took my full position in April 2020 and have held since then.

I am not going to chase this price up as I am fully invested in all my other holdings

[dougmachin] 19/2/2022 12:28

There's definitely a difference in risk between buying a few more now Vs holding on for a bit more over the next week.

Shareholders are in a position of strength here (IMO), but also NAS' offer of cash is very tempting... already tempted 19% of major shareholders.

I sold 50% (about 586p) and am holding 50% for a little while longer. On balance, I think there's a reasonable chance of some more upside here (above 3% upside). But also, not to demand too much!

605p is fantastic. But anything from 630p to 700p would be an amazing cherry on top.

[buffettjnr] 19/2/2022 12:15

Then buy the shares. Simples. But I bet you won’t because you know it’s not going much higher.

[kaffee] 19/2/2022 11:56

Plenty of II's have... on margin. They don't fuq about with 2 or 3%.

Edit: Plus Shore Capital had forecasts of 5.70..... so we get back to this price organically as the globe gets back to normal pre-pandemic levels of travel. The premium has to be to 5.70, not 4.60 or 3.30 or whatever price you want to pick from the last few weeks/months.

[buffettjnr] 19/2/2022 11:50

The why don’t you buy the shares at 5.83 in the market? Millions on sale.

[convb] 19/2/2022 11:26

Its a hostile takeover attempt!!!!!

NAS are trying to buy 51% of company after offering 460p.

They are an operator not an investor!!!!!!!!!!! They absolutely do not want to sit as a minor share of around 19% for the next few years, it will be against every financial covenant they have.

They have not secured the 51%, no way.

This is going to kick off big time.

They will be calling up al the Major holders begging for their shares at 605p.

What would you do? Sell at 605p or hold them ransom!!!

This is 100% going above 700p...it will move up to 700p in a single session before March 9th.

[buffettjnr] 19/2/2022 11:19

I hope you are right but I sense it’s not going to sell at much higher than 605. There is a lot of wishful thinking. NAS does not need to extend an offer here. You could be left in this for a year or two. But let’s see. I’d be grateful for 605

[convb] 19/2/2022 11:04

If you have a ransom strip you can ask for anything. Why would any major holder agree to increase NAS stake at 605p? Hold them ransom as they have clearly shown their intentions now...a hostile take over is about speed and stealth...they offered at 460p and the MNZS board didn't even engage...now they are attempting a hostile take over at 605p after offering at 460p 6 weeks away...these guys maybe have a big balance sheet but their strategy is totally flawed.

This could see 800p...why not...ransoms pay heavily.

[aishah] 19/2/2022 10:58

Previous deals in this space over 10x EV/EBITDA. Based on Bod's forecast of £101m EBITDA, offers over 800p gets the deal done imo.
Not discounting another bidder to appear as well.

[convb] 19/2/2022 10:47

PI's yes. But major holders will now hold them to ransom.

This is a classic defence to a hostile takeover. They are moving too slowly.

This is a fail.

The MNZS board have intimate relationships with Majors holders, that includes PI's with significant holdings also.

This is going above 700p

[buffettjnr] 19/2/2022 10:37

NAS’ door is being broken down with sellers wanting to monetise at 605p. In a week they have gone from 0% to 19%. Hold on for 7. All the best

[convb] 19/2/2022 10:03

I think NAS have overplayed this. There are now committed at 19% ownership. at 605p

Clearly they have succeeded in convincing some major shareholders to sell at 605p. That is the only way to buy that sort of volume. However by doing this they have now created a problem for themselves, all the other major shareholders that they need to sell to increase their stake to 50% now have a ransom strip and can negotiate a much better price than 605p. They can set the new sale price at 700p plus and not sell. Do NAS really want to exist as a 19% shareholder of course not. This is why the board did not engage with them....this was a trap for the hostile take over...I don't think they will be able to increase their position from 19% at 605p...all further buys are at 700p plus. Let them buy enough so they are fully committed and then hold them ransom.

Playing the hostile takeover without having a majority of Shareholders (51%) agreeable to sell at 605p is a mistake and they will be punished for it.

The hostile take over is far too slow and has created the perfect situation for the board to hold them at ransom...well played Phillip, clearly not his first rodeo. Give them enough to be fully committed, now they will have to buy more at a higher price to protect the 19% invested.

This is more a Sloth takeover than a hostile one. This deal is done at 700p plus.

[buffettjnr] 19/2/2022 09:58

What’s the maximum they could offer knowing that the smartest investors in Menzies have agreed to sell at 605p? 620 perhaps?

The downside is like 30-40% and the upside is 3%.

I call it stupid to continue holding it.

[dougmachin] 19/2/2022 09:56

So, it's either...

- gonna go at 605p
- not go at all
- go for more than 605p

LOL

[dougmachin] 19/2/2022 09:37

Agree that 605p is a likely outcome and I'm more than happy with that.

But, now NAS own 19%, they're very committed.

So, there's also every chance, I think, that this might go for a bit more than 605p.

[buffettjnr] 19/2/2022 09:29

Or maybe there is no deal and NAS keeps a minority position?

[kaffee] 19/2/2022 09:11

Offer is not announced. If someone put a trade through at say 6.50 (plucked out of the air) and THEN it's announced... that is the price NAS have to pay. See rules at hxxps://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk

Explains why price is under that in last announcement..... NAS must have a lot of institutions on board to be able to keep it down. It should at least be at 6.05 in open market in theory.

Coming round to the view it'll go at 6.05

[dr biotech] 18/2/2022 20:41

Doubt they’ll have to pay a 5% premium. Only need to get 31/80 of the remaining holders to accept and they’re home. Pretty much regardless of whether the board like it or not.

Given other uncertainties in the market it’s a no brainier to accept.

[nigelpm] 18/2/2022 20:26

NAS playing it well - hoover up as a much as possible (get 50%) then if you have to pay a 5% premium over the £6.05 it only costs you 2.5% extra. Doing it well. No way it ends in anything other than success for them now.

[buffettjnr] 18/2/2022 20:05

Well it’s a bargain then. Imagine the bargain it was at 300p 5 weeks ago. I didn’t see you putting 40% of your portfolio into it.

[pindakaas] 18/2/2022 19:54

It's a bargain if sold for 605 ...

[buffettjnr] 18/2/2022 18:03

Lol you not getting much change from 605p. It’s time accept the offer and move on.