Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[dougmachin] 16/2/2022 08:47

Another 60,000 quids worth purchased by Sterling.
They're over 7% now.

[buffettjnr] 15/2/2022 21:27

Fair comment. There is a lot of interest building in Menzies now

[buffettjnr] 15/2/2022 21:27

Fair comment. There is a lot of interest building in Menzies now

[gargoyle2] 15/2/2022 21:20

Given that the board has said that a 9.8x EV/EBITDA multiple is 'the norm', I reckon they are targeting around 670p (an 8.5x multiple and a 2022 PE of around 16). Whether NAS can get there I don't know. May need another bidder to reach that level imo.

[buffettjnr] 15/2/2022 19:07

I kind of agree. If NAS doesn’t buy it, someone else will. Just highlights how absurdly valued U.K. companies are generally.

[convb] 15/2/2022 18:57

620p is less than a 20% improvement.

The board would rather collect those dividends for a few years and then sell at 650p plus.

Two bites at the cherry as they say.

This will not sell unless it starts with a 7.

720p would get it sold.

[ayl30] 15/2/2022 18:57

Fully agree your analysis but would amend final line to ..will be sold. Deffo in play now as bid as such has only exposed how undervalued it is. NAS NEED it to fill in geographic gap so will offer more but others like Swissport may also want it. So it's a game of poker with us as shareholders guaranteed winners, exciting!

[convb] 15/2/2022 18:57

620p is less than a 20% improvement.

The board would rather collect those dividends for a few years and then sell at 650p plus.

Two bites at the cherry as they say.

This will not sell unless it starts with a 7.

720p would get it sold.

[buffettjnr] 15/2/2022 18:51

If the offer is not 620p, it’s not happening. There will be other buyers who pay an acceptable share price.

[dr biotech] 15/2/2022 18:29

Think the 9th is “put up or shut up” so a formal offer but not a final one. They’d only likely to make that if they have the backing of the board or a substantial group of shareholders.

[convb] 15/2/2022 17:31

If the EPS is projected to be 45p.

Then even at 700p an EPS returns 6.4%, which is an excellent dividend.

NAS uses a EBITDA value multiple of 6.4x to get to 510p per share.

As per page 8 of the defense pack the industry media is an EBITDA multiple of 9.8x which is equal to 780p per share (note Swissport which was in a much worse state was at 10.9x multiple). Mercury Air Group was at a 12x multiple.

Also MNZS suggest the NAS offer is conditional.

So absolutely no way is this offer being accepted. The share price will rocket to 600p plus when the EPS figure is released at March 8th results. And I find it interesting that NAS final offer is to be filed by March 9th...so they have a 24 hour window to reflect on their opportunistic and wholly unsatisfactory offer

MNZS IS NOT FOR SALE.

[sikhthetech] 15/2/2022 15:05

If NAS walk away then the share price will fall. I doubt PIs will wait and care if the BoD are able to prove their own valuation in a year's time.

All companies or assets are only worth what buyers are prepared to pay and not the seller believes it's worth.

[bartyb] 15/2/2022 13:04

Have we had a formal offer

[jdh1602] 15/2/2022 12:38

As some others have said, I cashed in Some of my position also (actually, 1/3). Hedging your bets is often a good option, faced with uncertainty, especially with a profit already in hand!

[mammyoko] 15/2/2022 10:22

If NAS walk away then they can't make another offer for 12 months. That should give plenty of time for the MNZS BoD to prove the accuracy of their EBITDA 'forecast' of £101.7m or not. If it's accurate, rejecting 510p should turn out to be the right call.

[dr biotech] 15/2/2022 09:56

I just sold about a quarter of my holding just above 480. Will wait and see for the rest.

[dougmachin] 15/2/2022 08:35

Does that other RNS mean Sterling have just bought 237,349 @ 463p?

Is that right?

Reading a UK RNS is like trying to read something that's been typed in the 1800's.

Sterling now own 6.99%, as of yesterday.

On Feb 8th, Sterling owned 6.6%.


Why would Sterling be buying at these levels???

Other than knowing or thinking a higher bid is coming.

[dr biotech] 15/2/2022 08:31

That’s roughly what I’m thinking. May go a touch higher if they can get a 3rd party involved.

NAS haven’t made a formal offer yet and haven’t declared anything “final” so room for it to go either way.

[dougmachin] 15/2/2022 08:20

NAS' RNS on Monday shows they're still interested.

The increase from bid 1 to 2 was 50p, so I don't think a 3rd bid would have an increase of more than 50p.

So a max potential 3rd bid of 560p. Probably less though. I'm going for 540p.

NAS have come this far, surely they'll try for something like 540p.

They've got the taste for it now, so will want to follow through.

That kind of increase wouldn't mean too much to NAS, but gives MNZS mgt chance to say "we got them up a second time" and agree.

Everyone's a winner... especially me!

[ayl30] 15/2/2022 08:19

NAS needs MNZS to fill in geographic weakness of UK/ US. o f course they start with a low ball offer that's the game. Worth them going hostile with a further offer, nothing much to lose, funds will have told then price they would accept

[milliecusto] 15/2/2022 08:13

Have to agree

[sundance 13] 15/2/2022 08:10

Can't see it sadly.

[sundance 13] 15/2/2022 08:09

Yes not convinced shareholders are their main concern, e.g hiding the initial 460p offer. I would try one more raised offer if I was NAS then walk away if they get the same sort of response.

[milliecusto] 15/2/2022 08:09

Think Mnzs looking for 7, not to sure that would happen