Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 06/10/2015 14:02

Silver starting to break out with higher highs and higher lows. Gold to follow? Needs to take out $1160 as just a first step ....

[goldminer70] 06/10/2015 11:44

Tightfist
I am pleased that you are going to the presentation.
I am very interested to know if there is any mention of a London listing. I went to the presentation earlier in the year ~ I think it was February. Geoff Davis was very definate that it wouldn't happen anytime soon, because of the cost.
I wonder if Rob Gregory is of the same mindset.
I would love to know how much it does cost for a full listing and an AIM listing. I am sure it would pay for itself with a wider catchment of investors both Institional and Private.
Good Luck I look forward to reading your report.

[tightfist] 06/10/2015 10:35

Hi Steve,

Yes, I am very interested in attending Thursday's presentation and have now registered ([e-mail]) with Pro-active; I went to their PHB/GD event 18 months ago.


Many thanks for your detailed review of the Annual Report - I have spent some time examining the Cash Flow (page 79) and will now think about what that could look like for 2016, based on the very latest info.


Regarding the London presentation, the rise in Stope grades is quicker than I had anticipated, and also the Mill grade trajectory.

Clearly they are already reducing mining on the upper levels and content to run the mill at ~1800tpd (ref: Slide 7) to deliver 28/29,000 Oz in Q1 on the journey to 120 - 130 Oz.

Other notable points for me are:

The increasing emphasis on operating cost reduction (I especially like Slide 12 on Continuous Improvement) and Service Shaft benefits (Slide 13)

Exploration project deferral, as advocated on this Board

On Slide 17 the AISC projection for 2015/2016 is US$900-1000, INCLUDING $80 for the Service Shaft which completes in mid-2016 and other Key Infrastructure projects.

Once that expenditure ceases, L8 Shaft is continuously utilised for stope and development ore, and the Continuous Improvement projects, are commissioned we could see some very interesting numbers....


We may get meet on Thursday! There are some targeted questions to pose.

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 06/10/2015 08:00

Another good session last night, pushing back towards the 50c mark , another good session tonight and we will be back through it, a bump up in the pog would see it .

[chipperfrd] 06/10/2015 00:30

I am still in Borneo - so unfortunately cannot make the presentation.

Hope someone from this board can attend and provide feedback.

Chip

[stevea171] 05/10/2015 22:28

Mikky. OK thanks.
Maybe too short notice for me as I'm going away at the w/e .....

Anyone interested?

[mikkydhu] 05/10/2015 22:02

I received an email from Alastair Ford of Proactive at 11.41 this morning inviting me to an evening with MML and Wolf starting at 5.45 at the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel on Thursday 8th. You need to register.
If in doubt, please email [e-mail]. I have checked my email and have not received any correction to this information.
Over to you.

[deka1] 05/10/2015 20:58

LOL steve never checked the bloody date,will keep on looking lol

[deka1] 05/10/2015 19:54

Steve does this help .


Medusa Mining Investor Presentation - Proactive Investors



www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/351/all_news

says its on the 12thh Oct


‌

[stevea171] 05/10/2015 19:37

Mikkydhu. Thanks but are you sure? Proactive show Wolf Minerals presenting Thurs.
Where did you get your info from?

[mikkydhu] 05/10/2015 14:59

MML is presenting on Thursday evening in London with Proactive investors.

[goldminer70] 05/10/2015 14:48

The pleasing aspect about this institution presentation is that Rob Gregory does seem to be in charge. There were suggestions on this Board that he was taking a back seat and possibly moving on.
Although there isn't going to be an official presentation to private investors, I am sure if anybody could make it, (especially Chip or Steve or others who make excellent contributions to this Board), he would be willing to meet them.
I am sure it would be worth while.

[stevea171] 05/10/2015 11:46

This was the corresponding slide from the Q4 results, 28/7.
It can be seen that they have had a rethink about their budgets for 2015/16 with a slight fall in capex although the 2 sets of items are not directly comparable. Presentation has improved for the UK institutions!

AISC guidance has fallen so maybe they are making needed cost cutting incl directors salaries ... On second thoughts that may be asking too much! :-)

Slide 15.
Description Unit 2015-2016
Production guidance ounces 120,000 to 130,000
Cash Costs US$ /ounce US$380 to US$430
Development expenditure US$ US$40M
Capital expenditure (sustaining) US$ US$10M
Capital expenditure (Service Shaft) US$ US$10M
Exploration expenditure US$ US$11M
AISC (1) US/ounce US$960 to US$1,060

Note (1): included in AISC is capital expenditure for Service Shaft approximately US$80 per ounce

[stevea171] 05/10/2015 10:11

BL & Goldminer. Thanks guys and 250k would do very nicely!!

Goldminer. I see Rob is back in London solo for all of this week. Maybe GD is getting itchy feet to get back on the golf course?! No PI presentation this time?

From here I think the share price will turn back up and could be very much higher by Xmas if some institutions put on their buying boots, Q1 result is good and the gold price smashes through this endless CB manipulation.

Slide 15:
Production guidance ounces 120,000 to 130,000
AISC (1) US$ /ounce US$900 to US$1,000
Capital expenditure (sustaining)
(includes resource drilling) US$ US$10M
Capital expenditure US$ US$15M
Exploration expenditure US$ US$4M
Note (1): included in AISC is capital expenditure for Service Shaft approximately US$80 per ounce

Seems they are trying to get AISC down from current elevated levels.

[deka1] 05/10/2015 08:27

London presentation out today.




Medusa Mining Limited ('Medusa' or the 'Company'), through its Philippine affiliate, Philsaga Mining Corporation ('PMC'), provides the Investor Presentation for London during 5th to 9th October 2015, to be presented by Chief Operating Officer, Mr Rob Gregory.

The key points in the presentation are:

• As highlighted in the graph below, broken ore inventory build-up since January 2015 is now stabilised at the optimum level of between 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes;


• The grade of the ore drawn from the stopes has improved to 8.43 g/t gold at 31 August (from 7.20 g/t gold at 30 June 2015);


• Mill grades are trending upwards towards the 2015 reserve grade of 7.3 g/t gold;


• There are no changes to the production guidance of between 120,000 to 130,000 ounces for FY2015-16;


• The AISC is expected to improve steadily; and


• Indicated Resources and Probable Reserves levels have been maintained after mine depletion of 105,000 ounces for FY2104-15

[goldminer70] 04/10/2015 23:58

Steve
Fantastic forensic analysis of the accounts. You deserve a bonus for doing a brilliant job. Will you settle for half of P.H-B bonus?
Well done

[bluelynx] 04/10/2015 21:02

Steve

Thanks for that, it would seem that MML is like many gold miners, and is run with the priority of making the management rich and the Shareholders come a very distant second. Reward for failure is just not acceptable specially in the sums you stated above, what's the market cap just now!

[tightfist] 01/10/2015 11:57

Hi deka, Steve;

My guess operationally it's going to be a bit of both - more head grade and keeping going with a significant amount of ore coming from above Level 5. I will be happy that we are on our way to the 2016 year-end guidance if we see 29,000 Oz and a Head Grade of 6.3 g/t in the Q1 figures later this month.

We should see further grade uplifts during 2016 as the New Contracts and "New Design Stopes" are 100% in-place - that timing seems to have slipped back a little.

All the incremental operating efficiency improvements and increased ore throughput should reduce cash unit costs; that seems a bit more difficult to quantify; Maybe Chip has a model.

That's my take on it. Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 30/9/2015 12:59

TF yes re your last para, its one or the other.

[tightfist] 30/9/2015 12:30

RT,

Thanks. Yes, I saw that reference to "competitive industry levels" which I think I first read a few months ago. That phrasing sits very uncomfortably with me and is seemingly inconsistent with "...low cost gold producer..." on their home page? I thought I invested in a low-cost producer...... I think Chip can help with some AISC projections, once the Service Shaft investment is in place

deka,

I'll get into some detailed calcs later, but from July? next year, 1700tpd (Levels 6-8)at 7g/t and 400tpd (Level 5 and above) at 4g/t are my initial estimates - (I think they use 26 available days per month average in their calcs?; I am using 93% recovery). This leads to 126kOz pa.

However, reconciling with 2016 guidance those inputs must be pessimistic, because ramp-up during this year would mean they miss year-end guidance. That suggests to me that they are forecasting going over 7g/t, or they are going to hang-in with more production from Levels 5 and above for longer.

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 30/9/2015 11:45

Tightfist
the only ref to AISC I can see is as below:

The AISC guidance will remain at an elevated level until all mine medium term waste infrastructure projects are completed and the cost efficiencies they produce materialise. In the longer term, once full hoisting capacities are
achieved in the mine, the AISC should lower to competitive industry levels.
RT

[deka1] 30/9/2015 11:33

TF cheers,yes a reduction in the manning for the upper levels will have an impact on the costs add in the new shaft completed mid 2016 and the cost reduction will be significant by the end of comp year June 2016.
So the throughtput tonnage will decrease for the near future but the grades will improve ,
Rough calcs for prod,lets say the reduce tonnage throughput to 2000 tons a day
and grade at 7 g/t, at 90% recovery, that would give about 56kt a month at 7 grms/ton, which is 392k grams less 10 %, divided by 31 = around 11400 ozs a month, drop 2 weeks prod off that for shutdowns and that would make it 130kozs for the year, top end of the guide .