Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 09/10/2010 11:38

Like philjeans (2548) I'm struggling to get my mind around the idea that REVENUE is down. With the Morrisons contract still developing and substantial new customers coming onstream (Best Buy), it's hard to believe it can be below last year - ("...my local Morrisons Manager tells me the CD sales are performing well and they are very impressed with MBL.

There is the new Smiths contracts of course and Best Buy, or whatever they're called, opening huge new stores across the country where we are the main supplier!") - so does "behind forecast" and "behind market expectations" mean something between last year's figures and analysts' (higher) forecasts for 2011 or are revenue/profits going to be down on last year (in which case why not say so rather than talking of "forecasts/expectations"?

With the upheaval around the new distribution warehouse and IT systems they said they were installing, I can understand that profits might be knocked by (hopefully exceptional) costs, but I cannot understand how revenue could be down.

[ianguerin] 09/10/2010 08:43

Surely the share price is initially determined by MM's who will want to make money by scaring holders into selling. Whether the MM's are successful or not depends upon how many sellers & buyers are tempted at those prices, & if an investor's confidence in the BOD has evaporated then it's understandable that investor bails out.

With his holding, TA isn't going anywhere unless he's taken out at a price acceptable to him. If he's the buyer, he decides the offer price. As for PC, it's time for a taxi, & I'd like him to pay back his £300k bonus which he got for performing a flash in the pan rather than for any longer term performance, as witnessed by the last 3 RNS's. Like that's going to happen!

If profits are expected to be below market expectations (what is that expectation?) then is the company going to postpone the change of premises & defer the I.T. investment?

[mustbefunny] 08/10/2010 22:16

You will get a return - might be negative though

[fmcalorum] 08/10/2010 17:49

I am disappointed with what has happened but remain calm and pretty sure I will get a return in the long run

[jeffian] 08/10/2010 17:40

I don't know how reliable ADVFN stats are, but looking at their 'Trades' pages, doesn't seem to have been huge volume and a reasonable balance between buys and sells. Does this mean that investors are remaining calm or like me - standing like a rabbit staring at the light wondering if it's the end of the tunnel or an approaching train?!

[supernumerary] 08/10/2010 14:50

Given that the company is in an offer period, all transactions by 1% holders normally have to be reported within 24 hours, so we should soon see whether the people who might be expected to understand best what's going on are buying, selling, or holding.

[davidosh] 08/10/2010 14:13

Lets be fairly straight about this. Strategy Review as a term probably covers lots of issues and no doubt the first one was done to aid the Board in making a decision going forward that was explained in the Annual Report. I doubt this review is anything more than a cover all for a multitude of things which clearly includes the possibility of an offer being made for the company. In the first review the takeover panel did not demand any RNS at any stage so one presumes there is a different potential outcome this time ?

[microscope] 08/10/2010 13:58

I do agree that the share price reaction looks excessive. After all they have a strong balance sheet, lots of cash and still some sort of a functioning business, even if, it seems, working less well than before.

The p/e of course will change if they are to materially miss projections, but surely this company is worth more than £1 a share, even if it has an ailing business model.

The impression from two reviews in a matter of months does suggest to me a business that is lacking direction, but the fundamentals are still there to bolster things, during whatever transition might take place.

[tommyjnewton] 08/10/2010 12:58

Mr Hangman, if you visit any supermarket and hang around the tills you will see DVDs merrily going through. We aren't selling 78 rpms or penny-farthings.
My concern is the quality and possible cynicism of management who see themselves in a win,win, win situation. There is dodgy management remuneration, bizarre RNSs, and no attempt to reassure the market - In fact it seems there is a campaign to drive the shares down. It couldn't be done better.
My question is, could the management be misjudging the situation and end up thrown out with new owners in place? Is this possible despite the large present controlling interest? I would welcome comments from people with more knowledge of the company. The management seem very confident!

[jonc] 08/10/2010 12:55

and my local Morrisons Manager tells me the CD sales are performing well and they are very impressed with MBL.

There is the new Smiths contracts of course and Best Buy, or whatever they're called, opening huge new stores across the country where we are the main supplier!

*


That's why I am staggered at a profit warning. All indications are that trade is good then suddenly this bombshell.

[marben100] 08/10/2010 12:54

JonC... however, the tiny volume of trades (under £100Ks worth) simply represents a small number of retail investors panicing.

As I mentioned befrore, this RNS seem totally contrived: crucial Christmas trading data is not yet available. MBL has never previously issued an update at this time of year - and has consistently set and thoroughly beaten low expectations.

You must consider that the shares were ALREADY trading on a P/E of less than 4. Is that not already pricing in a substantial decline in profitability? And we've now had a 30% fall from those levels. After his excellent performance to date, I do not believe that TA is suddenly going to allow the business to slip into losses (and there is no indication of it in the RNS). The evidence of recruitment and the new warehouse don't support such ideas either.

I am perfectly happy to have added this morning.

Mark

[mr hangman] 08/10/2010 12:49

Yes but we are in a digital age...who still buys CD's, hope the management
make the most of their cash, while they still have it

[philjeans] 08/10/2010 12:40

Huge overreaction to T/S; so say profits halve - that'll mean the shares will be on a new P/E of perhaps 6 instead of 3.

New businesses are performing well and they have no debt and are throwing off lots of cash.

Div will be sustained I have no doubt and my local Morrisons Manager tells me the CD sales are performing well and they are very impressed with MBL.

There is the new Smiths contracts of course and Best Buy, or whatever they're called, opening huge new stores across the country where we are the main supplier!

Any bid will be at least 50% more than the share price today.

What's not to like?

Bought more - averaged down.

[mr hangman] 08/10/2010 12:29

Never good when you get a TS, after market hours

[jonc] 08/10/2010 12:26

Sorry to see the outcome of this for you and others DD.

JC

[davidosh] 08/10/2010 12:20

It is still going through advisors, nomads, solicitors etc but I am certainly still very hopeful that we shall have a conference call for investors set up for this coming Thursday so that all the directors and a representative from Global Media Vault can answer the many questions thrown up by shareholders over the last six months. Naturally they will not be able to comment on current trading though.

[jonc] 08/10/2010 12:19

Anyone looking for a bounce should be very cautious as bad news tends to come in threes. The third piece of bad news will be the KPMG report and a quantifying of the poor results.

[kimboy2] 08/10/2010 12:13

Am I right in thinking that Brewin Dolphin can't put out new forecasts because it is in an offer period ?

[burgerbarwomen] 08/10/2010 11:30

I WARNED YOU LOT MANY WEEKS AGO WELL NOW THE CHICKENS HAVE COME HOME TO ROOST

I TOLD YOU SO...........

PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR MY AR8E!!!

PROFIT WARNINGS ARE LIKE BUSES... THEY COME 3 AT ONCE SO EXPECT 50P VERY SOON BOYS

[kimboy2] 08/10/2010 10:57

Hi Stemis
Who says management want to buy it?

Well there is circumstantial evidence in terms of the presentation of the Morrison's contract issue and the U-Explore deal.

Then there is the strategic review, or at least the second strategic review. That said;

The strategic review is at a very early stage and may result in an offer being made for the Group as one of the possible outcomes...

The review is being assisted by KPMG Corporate Finance. If an offer is possibly to be made as a result of of an internal strategic review is there any other source for it than an MBO ?

I would have thought it was strong circumstantial evidence, though not conclusive proof.

[meict] 08/10/2010 10:38

Whoever is adding the pluses and the minuses, I've just bought 4,700 @ 98p.

Now, who wants to give me a lift from Crystal Palace (or somewhere else in south London) to Lancaster and then back to Beckenham? I'll pay my share of the petrol and for the driver's dinner at the Sea Salt.

This is not very nice and they've ruined Mr Dosh's weekend – Blackpool (a team in the first seventeen of the Premier League), is playing Manchester City on the evening before the AGM. Normally the result of the game would have guaranteed that Mr D would be more than a match for Mr Allan but now...

Meic

[fmcalorum] 08/10/2010 10:31

Form 8.3 - MBL Group PLC - Amendment

Looks same as yesterdays RNS!

[fmcalorum] 08/10/2010 10:25

We all assume they want to buy it?

[stemis] 08/10/2010 10:24

Who says management want to buy it?