Max Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ifyes] 02/7/2014 10:31

1.50 1.70 coming soon

[richgit] 02/7/2014 09:43

We may wonder why sentiment towards the Oily sector has been so horrendous.

Much of that of course is because there has been so many expensive dud drills
and the shattered dreams of Pi`s in Oily tiddlers,to some far bigger stocks.

In reality it is all those dud drills that arguably should make those that have
production even more valuable, especially as we see the panic to protect Oil
production in Saudi Arabia, and just about everywhere that the US bombed to protect $Petrodollars,whether Iraq,Libya etc etc.

I let much of my stake go in LGO because I didn't imagine it could be valued
at £90 Million at their current stage of the game-so a mistake in my judgement
yet good for those still holding.

There will be more mistakes as We misjudge the horrendous undervalues and judge
Market values against those undervalues,just like the exact opposite of
the top end of overvalues when Oil was nudging $150pbl.

I am a little surprised that so far MXP have found nobody to take a stake in NUR, considering the upside of a pro-rata to many- modest commitment.


For Myself- I hardly see MXP sinking in value with production many small Cos dream of, and say by comparison to LGO`s £90 Million Market Cap,yet on the other side of the coin we see BLVN & HUR being trashed

I doubt that will last too much longer,and no doubt there is a Market awakening on the horizons of how battered some stocks are.

I hope to be holding before that awakening arrives,and then buying more on the momentum of any confirmed signal of sentiment change to the sector.




Only my opinion of course.

.

[aidan61] 02/7/2014 09:13

Is it time to buy the old MAX again...??

[richgit] 01/7/2014 12:12

PS>

At 1.4p per pop,I reckon We need to witness a day of 50Million shares changing
hands to define MXP`s future.

[richgit] 01/7/2014 12:05

SPkiller.

MXP must have the most spreadbet shorts against it of all the Oily stocks,yet
only the professionals with true borrowed stock shorts could have any real
fear to the stock price rising,unless any Spreadbet Cos have leveraged into underlying stock ( I presume)

However -the most unloved stocks - can surprise the most.

It`s a percentages Game of holding a few Oily stocks whilst waiting to pile into
the truly most unloved sector.


IMHO

[spkiller] 01/7/2014 11:57

I got in here just after the last RNS oil find and before the big spike... it seems to be the only share I've ever seen on AIM that you have a couple of hours to read the RNS and buy before the spike... it's great!

I missed this spike though, but i'll be watching carefully today, it has 2p soon written all over the chart IMO but the spike may retrace slightly before a push up.

[hiddendepths] 01/7/2014 11:54

From the interims 30/12/2013

"...an expected US$4 per bbl savings in Zhana Makat when the Group commissions the new Makat oil terminal that will allow the Group direct access into the pipeline bypassing a third-party provider."

I'm surprised it's taken this long but that's Kazakhstan for you! I'm also surprised that it's perceived as good enough news to move the share price but that's the market for you!

[hiddendepths] 01/7/2014 11:38

SPkiller - It's been known about for a long time now so isn't a surprise to anyone. The only news is that it's been commissioned. Some of us might say that it should have been done a few years back rather than when the field is in decline. But they didn't have the money back then...

The share price looks rather perky though for some reason.

[grahamburn] 01/7/2014 09:53

Don't want to split hairs, SPkiller, but there has been a small effect on the price - the spread has closed considerably, with the bid price moving up significantly from last night's close.

[spkiller] 01/7/2014 09:49

Well no one seems to care about the pipeline... 0% change. Seems like a good thing to me and presumably has a high ROI.

[21traader] 01/7/2014 08:24

Max Petroleum expects substantial savings from Kazakh hook-up
Today, 8:24 AM

[hiddendepths] 28/6/2014 08:23

o/t rg, I've just posted on HUR. I think it's a balanced view.

bob - if you're around, PLEASE check out that HUR well result. I know you were very sceptical ahead of the appraisal but the investment case is very clear now.

[hiddendepths] 27/6/2014 15:05

o/t BLVN. Hmm. Nice farm-out to generate cash, so in much better shape now, not that it helped the share price much. There something about the company that doesn't convince me though, even though the likes of ghh are believers and I have plenty of time for his views. There seems to be plenty of puffing from the company itself, at least the CEO, and from past experience I've become wary of such situations although that has meant I've missed some good ones.

I may look deeper at the acreage over the weekend. That could convince me! I know the African oilies of old, having got into Tullow at around 10p (!) and Burren at 160p amongst others.

[hiddendepths] 27/6/2014 13:47

I agree that BLVN appear attractive. I don't have any and haven't looked in depth for quite a while. I'll check it out and report back on here...

[richgit] 27/6/2014 11:07

HD

I added to HUR so I am in just under 40p overall.

I suspect that like BLVN,the games played by Bigger Money that wants all the stock as cheaply as possible,will involve every tool at their disposal to take it from all the 5 & 10k pure traders that expect too much too soon.

They may indeed let it run up so they can then squeeze even more volume out the pure traders,as there are not many "investors" buying
those 5 & 10k`s


I sit with Max because there are so few traders currently expecting anything,and just maybe MXP will surprise when virtually nobody expects them to.

Patience will be required whether BLVN,HUR,MXP etc,yet since the days of
GKP`s 9p to initial drill success,the game plan to buy successful looking drills
at dumped prices has been fairly rewarding,though I did sell GKP when the
Guy they all call "The drug dealer" had a target of 150p.

I was happy with that from 34p & 50P in GKP,and somewhat far better than the chances of the 9pers seeing 0.

Risk/reward.


IMHO

[hiddendepths] 27/6/2014 09:49

Indeed! I was actually quite liquid until that HUR RNS yesterday. Now I'm not! Still, I doubt HUR will be independent at the end of this year so at some point I should have a big decision about how to position the portfolio.

I think that the Irai situation is more dangerous than most suppose. I think there's a very real chance that Saudi could become unstable. They have been funding ISIS (or ISIL!) and have seriously fallen out with the US, who are sidling up to Iran now, to the consternation of the Saudis. But the whole Shia/Sunni thing is a major factor in Saudi. It's been lurking for decades but it's a tinderbox that could erupt at any time (if that's not a mixed metaphor!).

Anyway, trouble in Saudi would lead to a BIG oil price spike. Worth watching the media for any signs.

[richgit] 27/6/2014 09:13

HD

All I can say is-that It will be a tough decision before the end of September
between my battered and unloved Oily stocks and the potential awakening of
the even far more battered Gold sector that may start in October,or possibly already be the end of this decade`s Gold Bargains.

[hiddendepths] 27/6/2014 08:51

I agree that sentiment towards the sector remains poor. HUR is conservatively worth 180-200p after the Lancaster well yet, as you say, as soon as momentum slowed the short sellers moved in and it's only in the mid 30's. Astonishing but I suspect that big institutions will buy in over the next few weeks and the shares will move much higher. As Dr Trice describes the find as "the tip of the iceberg" and refers to the 100 ft oil column immediately below the find, which covers a very large area, my conservative valuation could be an order of magnitude too low. As it is, we already know that the Lancaster field is the biggest UK discovery since Buzzard, in 2001 from memory, and that HUR has 100% of it.

I agree that there is a massive valuation gap on many gold companies too. I've been waiting for ages for that to close - it has in the US to some extent in recent weeks but not elsewhere.

I still think you don the rose-tinteds towards Max though! Have you noticed that RXP, equally unloved, is getting close to TD on its deep well, at Ayrshagl?

[7767] 27/6/2014 08:37

Selling in Leni and Caza ?????

[hiddendepths] 27/6/2014 08:30

Hmm, the seller appears to have more firepower than the buyer, who's been sitting at 1.15 bid for a day or two. Nearly back at the level of before the ramp (Do you remember, RG, I strongly suggested selling at the top!). I wonder if sentiment's going to knock the price below 1p. It wouldn't surprise me, but there may be a few residual buyers who would see 1p as an entry point.

Did you look at HUR?

[hiddendepths] 27/6/2014 08:17

And straight back up. Sentiment is a fickle thing!