Manolete Partners Share Discussion Threads

[sallad3] 11/3/2024 08:56

dekle. No documents are public on the Court filing system. Have to ask MANO directly.

[dekle] 08/3/2024 11:00

I'd like to know more about suing Taylors if anyone has an insight

[riverman77] 08/3/2024 08:49

Feels like this could drop below a pound. Desperately needs some positive newsflow to revive the share price.

[chrisdgb] 01/3/2024 19:03

Trading update not too long, hopefully should still be a supportive backdrop and share price drifting down….

[chrisdgb] 01/3/2024 14:51

Might be totally wrong but taken debut holding here today.......thoughts welcome.

[sallad3] 27/2/2024 09:41

What is this about?

Mano suing solicitors - who were they acting for?

hxxps://caseboard.io/cases/2b9a992f-890d-42c1-9375-b030801f26fd

[cfro] 31/1/2024 17:36

Insolvency Service prosecutions fall by almost half despite UK Covid fraud

[jsforum] 25/1/2024 19:27

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/25450605/uk-firms-brink-collapse-interest-rates/

[tightfist] 13/1/2024 21:46

The PO scandal makes one ever more cynical about the law profession, as they look after the Goliaths as they seek to walk over the Davids in life. Hopefully the fresh publicity will lead to a more robust environment for Litigation Funding.

[cfro] 13/1/2024 14:05

I'm sure many here have watched the brilliant ITV drama "Mr Bates vrs the Post Office". Well, Alan Bates has written in this weekends FT regarding the uncertain future of litigation funding for the types of "David vrs Goliath" cases that he was involved with.

Article here:



He points out last summers ruling in the Truck cartel PACCAR case, and the fact, where i myself was not aware of, that this particular ruling on funding was currently being debated in the House of Lords on whether it should be watered down (which according to Mr Bates definitely should be!).

It will be interesting to see what happens next but as an aside i was wondering whether all this will be unhelpful in coming to a settlement of the truck cartel case and will only delay things further..

[riverman77] 28/11/2023 20:00

Thanks Maddox, need to go through numbers again when time allows, but your estimates sound pretty reasonable and as good as any other forecasts I've come across.

[maddox] 28/11/2023 14:58

Hi riverman,

There's plenty of potential looking at the numbers. We have 417 current live cases and 146 new case investments in the 1H24 to 30 Sept - but we have only concluded 116 cases. On the basis that the case timespan is falling back to the 12 months average - we should see the completed cases approaching 300 per annum in the medium term.

Then, the average case value to MANO is currently historically low (£17k current vintage) as compared to say c. £48k the pre-Covid average. So, we should expect case values to increase as Administrations join the CVLs in the case mix. This is important as MANO is highly geared. The Operating Margin I like to calculate excludes the IP's share of the case win and looks only at the revenue due to MANO. In 1H24 that was 31% but has been 65%+ pre-Covid and as Overheads appear well managed I think we'll get back there. So, I think it's fairly easy to see the recovery pathway.

As these factors play-out we should see profitability accelerate away. A short-term target of c. £5m Net Profit is reasonable. Then, medium-term say £10m Net Profit looks a reasonable target at which point MANO will look very good value. Reaching full current capacity, say 400 cases, and we could see £20m Net Profit.

All models are wrong so I'm not going to put a timeframe on these targets as that's less important and considerably more difficult. The more important consideration is that it's not difficult to see how we get there.

[riverman77] 25/11/2023 20:08

Has anyone tried to actually model what sort of cashflows MANO could be expected to generate once they are fully up and running, say regularly completing 400-500 cases per year (which seems to be about their max capacity right now) . I tried having a look a while ago but no easy task. It's unfortunate that there is no broker providing this sort of detail.

[maddox] 25/11/2023 10:11

I must admit that I like a firm to pay a dividend. However, when you need cash to invest in growing the business and you can generate the super-normal return on investment MANO can - then really no issue - shelve the dividend.

[cfro] 25/11/2023 09:10

The CEO did incidentally make a comment on the dividend and the banking covenant with HSBC was also talked about.

Pressure from the major shareholders to re-invest into the business and more cases rather than pay a dividend. It makes perfect sense..

[cockerhoop] 25/11/2023 08:43

I'd imagine dividends have been suspended as a condition for HSBC to waive the loan covenants.......again!

[maddox] 24/11/2023 22:02

Manolete - Back to the Future!

These financial results provide reassurance that MANO is on the recovery trajectory. It's been a long and painful recovery back from the Govt Covid measures that clattered MANO's business - so it’s great to see that the recovery is clearly underway in last week’s results. The Govt Insovency Service reports monthly CVLs (Company Voluntary Liquidations) that are a leading indicator of market demand. These manifest as cases referred to MANO by the Insolvency Practitioners (IPs). Currently these are running at about +70% above the level that they were in pre-Covid 2019 when MANO’s share price was in the 450p - 550p range some 3x higher than currently. Nevertheless, this is still early days, MANO are still seeing only a trickle of what is likely to become a deluge of cases:

>> Firstly, there is a natural delay between a firm lodging a CVL and it being referred to MANO as a case enquiry, so there's more growth to come;

>> Secondly, the larger and more complicated cases are still yet to reappear in the figures, these will generate higher returns; and

>> Thirdly, Bounce Back Loans are a new post-Covid line of business, that could add significant additional profit.

MANO has increased staff to cope with the demand they foresee. Back in 2019 they had the capacity to manage 275 cases simultaneously – whereas they now have 417 live cases. Another, key metric updated in these results is that MANO achieves a phenomenal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 131% - this before overheads, which remain well contained.

As demand scales-up cash will be absorbed into working capital as new case investments will out-pace case settlements. MANO has drawn £13m of its £25m debt facility with HSBC and shelved its dividend to preserve cash for investment.

So, great to see a return to profitability but much more to come and profitability should accelerate fast as operational gearing kicks in.

[riverman77] 24/11/2023 15:02

Far too much emphasis on the IRRs they generate - there is very little connection between these IRRs and the actual cash or profit the company generates, because IRRs do not factor in the costs of running the company. Return on equity remains very disappointing despite the pick up in activity.

[pogue] 21/11/2023 13:36

The presentation by MANO from a week or so ago is now up on the Investor Meet Company website. Free to join and just select the companies you are interested in to view their past presentations

[riverman77] 16/11/2023 22:11

Probably just the spread - it's about 10% sometimes.

[bogman1] 16/11/2023 21:00

How did that turn into a 7% drop?

[rmjpb] 16/11/2023 10:39

Fantastic results today. This company is growing nicely. Looking forward to further news on the BBL linkup, and a resolution to the cartel case - as this has been holding us back imo.

[rmjpb] 09/11/2023 17:21

Yes a welcome sight, but after this years slide it shouldn't have been difficult. Today only around £40k worth of buys, and yet we get such a rise in the share price I am extremely hopeful the results will be good - all the pointers are there. Just sitting patiently. I noted on the last presentation it were mentioned by some analyst that this was the 'recovery stock of 2024'. Let's hope so.