Manolete Partners Share Discussion Threads

[gusrezo] 28/6/2021 11:54

sorry, I attended the call but was not 100% focused on it, so cannot say whether there was any question about the dividend. I think, from past presentations, that the CEO stated the dividend was a kind of agreement with some of the institutional investors at the IPO time but I think he preferred to reinvest the cash in the business

[bigbaggy] 28/6/2021 10:00

Just read it Xpert. Cheers.

[stevevcjp] 27/6/2021 14:13

Great article Xpert. Thanks

[xpertgreeny] 27/6/2021 12:39

Seeking Alpha Article 'Manolete Partners Unlocks Explosive Growth' author rates them a 'ten-bagger investment."

[sallad3] 24/6/2021 15:40

gusrezo

I couldn't attend yesterday's phone-in. Did anyone say why the Dividend had been slashed? Bank covenants perhaps?

[lazg] 23/6/2021 21:32

@ bigbaggy: they are issued at a premium, therefore yes it does ;)

[simplethesis] 23/6/2021 19:03

Precisely. Capacity utilisation is low. For now.

[gusrezo] 23/6/2021 18:33

Manolete handles cases in the order or 20,000-50,000 profit per case before headcount. Comparing to Burford (millions per case), is about 1/100th per case and I can figure out the headcount per case is not 1/100th.... so headcount is a real issue. The company is currently handling 240 cases, according to the report released today, but the CEO states the team can handle around 360 cases. So the "occupancy rate" is about 66%, a heavy load per lawyer is needed to generate cash.

[gaiusgracchus] 23/6/2021 12:47

One day they might generate free cash flow...

[bigbaggy] 23/6/2021 12:02

LazG - the fact that the Bonds are trading at premium does not change the cost to the issuing Company....

[williamcooper104] 23/6/2021 11:46

LIT ought to have issued pref shares - I would have bought them at 13 Removes the bankruptcy risk and shareholders could have participated

[lazg] 23/6/2021 11:38

Burford financed at 6.5% but issued its bonds at 105%. Therefore 1.5% only.

[riverman77] 23/6/2021 11:21

Burford refinanced most of its debt at much lower rate than this through a new bond issuance, although can't remember the figure off the top of my head (I think also around 3%). The LIT rate seems very expensive, although strangely this has been by far the best performer of the 3 litigation funders recently.

[bigbaggy] 23/6/2021 09:00

New increased HSBC facility is at 3%. Burford pay 6% for their debt. Litigation Capital Mgmt 13%. The banks obviously get to see far more detail than we do. So this speaks well for Mano.

[toptomcat] 23/6/2021 07:41

Decent results, new credit facility arranged and bright outlook. Should return to favour in 3/4th qtr

[toptomcat] 28/5/2021 13:21

Is this beast finally awaking...

[maddox] 11/5/2021 16:19

Thanks scuba appreciated. I'm absolutely convinced that MANO will be a highly profitable investment and I'm invested on that basis. Just one additional point I'd add to your fully accurate above post on the timeframes: We've also had a substantial change of Financial Institutions recently and the CEO was persuaded to sell to satisfy demand from a new investor. So a number of factors have led to the current price level, a completely fictional Short attack by Tom Winnyfroth (it's a real hoot), Institutional Selling and latterly the Govt's generous Covid measures.

So, we've had the three knocks the share price is bombed-out and are now due some good fortune.

'This time next year Rodders!'

Cheers Maddox

[billytkid2] 11/5/2021 13:12

Logic would suggest Brexit and the pandemic must mean very significant defaults in a number of business sectors. How can there not be once the government stops the support?

[bigbaggy] 11/5/2021 13:05

Many thanks for the warm welcome all - appreciated. Maddox (your historic posts have been most helpful - thank you): if similar to last year then full year results should be out mid/end June. Nobbygnome is right - as I understand it the Government restrictions are due to come off at that time as well. They first came in in June 2020 and from the data they have disclosed that took about 3-6 months to impact MANO pipeline. My working assumption is that it takes the same time on the upside once the restrictions come off. So: will be interesting to see how the business has fared in the rather peculiar artificial state of the last 9 months. But much more important to my investment thesis, the stars should be rather well aligned for this once insolvency returns to normal. That should persist for a good few years is my reckoning. The shares have hit high 500s twice before, so that sets a more than useful watermark of where I think this could get to once the shackles are released.

CEO selling a bit: he still has a large shareholder for a founder so I see no issue - he sold a year and more after his lock up. CEO of Keystone sold a lot more today I see but again he has a very big remaining shareholding going forward. Knights CEO ditto a few weeks back and Dunelm (plug for my favourite investment). These people have built great businesses, have plenty of skin in going forward, so why not reward. From what I have seen on video of the CEO here, he seems a very determined and focused character (saw him live once as well).

[scubadiverr] 11/5/2021 11:00

I'm not sure why anyone has marked down Maddox. He is/was one the strongest advocates for MANO and it was one of his thesises that assisted in what was intended as a long term position. I lost money but found stockopedia so all is good.

[scubadiverr] 11/5/2021 10:50

I think the end of June is the key date when government support is removed. There is generally a lag of about 6 months however between an IP taking on a case, understanding any wrong doing, and then selling to or obtaining funding from MANO. The company have already warned there has been a material reduction in the number of new cases received. Results from memory fall in June and then November and I think the market will await these before there will be a positive rerating. The CEO sold c. 180p at around the time of the profit warning so I'm expecting it the fall back to these levels. It could be worse on poor results or further Director selling. I may be wrong and have been before so DYOR but I won't be returning until after November.

[nobbygnome] 11/5/2021 10:23

Not a holder currently but watching with interest. I really don't understand the weakness here and the valuation is beginning to look ridiculous. What's happening wrt the government rules and insolvency? I have a recollection a key date was coming up. Has that been extended?

[maddox] 10/5/2021 22:53

Hi Bigbaggy,

Welcome to the club. It would be good to know what brought these firms/sector to your attention? You mention the undervaluation (agreed) was it just that?

I think there are many of us biding our time: the performance metrics are compelling but need to see some updates/results to support the investment case.

Regards Maddox

[bogman1] 10/5/2021 18:03

Also check out beg and frp to complete your panini set

[bigbaggy] 10/5/2021 16:36

Have just joined this site but been investing for some years. Have recently taken a meaningful position in MANO and LIT. Keeping a close eye on BUR as well. The sector as a whole looks very underappreciated by the market imho.