Luminar Group Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 22/10/2010 16:57

they have got quite a lot of assets on the balance sheet: presumably mostly property - even subtracting debt that gives a NAV bigger than the market cap. Interesting.

[dasv] 22/10/2010 16:50

yes - I agree there's more upside potential than downside - however I wonder what catalyst could sort out the business? I assume they'll try and reduce debt by selling property? In which case the eventual business will be substantially smaller but hopefully profitable.

[she-ra] 22/10/2010 16:37

I dont always agree with CR but I think there is some steam behind LMR. Titan Europe 4 bagged without even sorting out its debt and I think it has a higher gearing.There is now a real expectation that LMR will jump and expectation is sometimes all that is needed.Regardless of profit expectations.

[dasv] 22/10/2010 16:35

I reckon it's worth 3x EBITDA and if you take off the debt the valuation is negative but WTFDIK

Domestic demand could be very very weak. the gilt market today is signalling very low growth for the UK - gilt yields Lower than German Bonds now.

[baldeagle5] 22/10/2010 16:20

Well just a penny to go.....
Numis have a price tgt of 35 - just 4.5 times EV/EBITDA AND they mention the freehold (which certain posters on here don't believe) as being one of the swing factors in the banks re negotiating the loan.

I still think these will be bid for and JDW ARE in the frame.

[cockneyrebel] 22/10/2010 11:03

agree re recovery play deanroberthunt.

Valuations mean nowt tho when you get a recovery like this - you tend to find events take over valuations imo.

Directors are likely to be cautious in what they say here, same with brokers. Forecasts won;t be gung ho either. But like all recovery plats the multiplier effect starts to kick in and the true recovery prosoects start to dawn imo.

Interesting time ahead imo.

CR

[deanroberthunt] 22/10/2010 10:55

last point, they are generating free cashflow.....this is very important

[deanroberthunt] 22/10/2010 10:55

even if you take 5 x EBITDA, which is £150m and take off the debt, 85m, still gives a valuation of £65m

[deanroberthunt] 22/10/2010 10:53

Currently working off (valuation) circa half year EBITDA (£14m)

Burger King was sold for 9.2x EBITDA....

[deanroberthunt] 22/10/2010 09:07

I'm in, looks like a decent recovery play...still high risk, but she's valued as bust.

[cockneyrebel] 22/10/2010 08:33

clear breakout here now and a lovely bowl forming - suspect there's a steep rally going forward, at some point imo.

CR

[baldeagle5] 21/10/2010 21:21

Wouldn't be surprised to see material Directors buying post these results.
Am going in at the open tom.

[doobster78] 21/10/2010 19:22

Well somethin certainly shifted it at the end ... lookin forward to tomoorrw now !!! Lovely

[baldeagle5] 21/10/2010 19:02

I'll stick my neck out (again) and say 20p by close of play tom.

[cockneyrebel] 21/10/2010 17:25

Well that was a nice breakout at the close :-)

Next resistance is 40p+ on the chart.

CR

[doobster78] 21/10/2010 16:49

Went into auction for last 10 minutes of trading @ 16.5p after being 15.5 -15.75p all afternoon ??? Any ideas ?

[cockneyrebel] 21/10/2010 16:22

Numis raise LMR from hold to buy.

CR

[hugepants] 21/10/2010 13:09

Maybe but there will be fewer clubs. The stronger operators will clean up.

[hotfinance14] 21/10/2010 12:39

The yougsters going into nightclubs will be reducing for the forseable future. I would never invest in LMR.

[spectoacc] 21/10/2010 12:28

It's a play on trading turning around - no sign of it yet, but it'll happen eventually IMO.

Just depends from what base! I've got a lot fewer than I did have now; gl holders.

[hotfinance14] 21/10/2010 12:18

But aren't their sales decreasing as time goes on!!

[baldeagle5] 21/10/2010 11:44

Absolutely binary recovery play - 5 - 10 bagger on an 18-24 month view or lose all your dough.

[jimmycarter] 21/10/2010 08:49

Looks good for some short term recovery in the share price until the next update on trading. Debt reduction and improvement in footfall together with new structure etc bodes well although needs backing up with the same message in the next IMS/trading update.

[adam] 21/10/2010 08:23

cash flow statement shows a reasonable picture

Net cash inflow from operations 8.3

that includes net finance costs of £3.6m

flattered by net £2.7m relative cash collection

Increase in receivables (6.1)
Increase / (decrease) in trade and other payables 3.4

if trading stabilises/improves then should get a re-rating.

"The Group's projections indicate that cash and EBITDA will be generated over the forthcoming year sufficient for the Group to remain within the covenants under the new facility"

[cockneyrebel] 21/10/2010 08:13

Recovery on the way here and a huge bowl forming on the chart imo.

CR