Londonmetric Property Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 26/11/2023 11:10

nexus - the office specialist sell-off has been overdone as people have pushed the sell button regardless of actual fundamentals. The Deloitte survey is London only, but a true guide to the facts rather than the scare stories.

Companies will still need their offices; occupancy may be down but the available space will need to be better geared to entice and retain employees. So overall space may not reduce at all.

Markets always overdo on both upside and downside. CLI is IMO a classic case of a fall overdone by fear and ignorance.

[nexusltd] 25/11/2023 22:32

@red. I agree that LMP is a quality name. I'm using limit orders to accumulate on pull backs. Regarding office I think that it is important not to generalise. Property Week reported that Deloitte’s London Office Crane Survey (winter 2023) has recorded its highest ever volume of new office starts since the study began in 2005, with 5.1m sq ft of construction starting across 43 schemes suggesting healthy demand.

[redartbmud] 25/11/2023 20:40

Sky

Thanks for the comment.
I take your point on the three front runners.
My personal preference would be to steer well clear of propcos with a portfolio that is predominantly in office real estate. The Covid panicdemic has changed the landscape for office space requirements forever as staff will never go back to the 5 days a week, 9.00 to 5.00 regime. Eventually downsizing will happen, but there are no other potential tennants to replace those exiting the game. If they do stay, in lower numbers they are unklikely to continue to pay the heady prices for premium real estate. A surplus of properties will see rents plumment in the scramble for a declining market.

Just a thought.

In the meantime, Lmp remains in a box uhder the bed.

red

[skyship] 25/11/2023 10:14

red - I agree that the management has a good reputation; and they have done well repositioning their portfolio to major on logistics.

However, as I stated in my post above, it is a matter of value. On the current stats there is clearly better value in the sector. My 3 favourites (frequently discussed on the CP+ thread) remain:

# API - 47.7p - Disc @ 42.0%; Yield @ 8.39%

# EBOX - 55.0p - Disc @ 39.0%; Yield @ 7.89%

# SREI - 44.9p - Disc @ 27.1%; Yield @ 7.45%

Pool the 3 for an average discount of 36%; and yield of 7.9%. Clear upside potential as interest rates fall back next year.

I have also taken a more speculative position in CLI @ 98p. (Disc. @ 66.4%; yield @ 8.1%). They are 100% office here in the UK and on the Continent. Dramatic fall because of their chosen sector; but they hold large, class assets and yet again it is a matter of value as the sell-down seems way overdone. Also we may see M&A there as the family (45% stakeholders) may decide either to bid for the rest or sell their controlling stake.

Their recent Trading Update a good place to start research on that one:

[redartbmud] 24/11/2023 18:16

Sky

I agree that it is presently difficult to see the share price return to the £2.00- £2.40 anytime soon, and the yield relative to the cost of your holding is relative, but a yield of 5.1% - 5.2% is quite tidy in the present climate. The prospect that it will increase marginally year on year is on the cards. It appears to be a part of the business model to do so.
Yes, the discount of 8.5% is thin, leaving little room for manoevre, but in the medium term the odds that asset values will rise must be on the cards.
Management has had a degree of successfully rotating assets in the portfolio, picking up manageable parcels and cherry picking the quality contained therein which are added to the stable.
They have been very careful in selecting the type of assets on the balance sheet, combined with quality tenants.
In addition their tennancies are being renegotiated at higher rates and terms of tenure extended.

The question therefore is the odds on the share price returning to the 160p range and how long it is likely to stay there before bouncing back towards the 180's and hopefully beyond? Alternatively how far down might they fall to make it worthwhile to trade a few, and at what point would it be sensible to get back in?
In the meantime, the dividend rolls in quarterly.

Personally, I have parked my holding in a drawer for the long term, trusting management to successfully churn the portfolio and avoid the worst of market sell-offs.

Everyone has a different investing style.

Interested in your thinking.

red

[skyship] 24/11/2023 16:00

It's all a matter of value; and with LMP once again at the top of their trading range they look a sell. Discount a mere 8.5% and yield likewise at 5.22%.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[petewy] 23/11/2023 10:52

healthy set of results?
"our portfolio is in great shape and its alignment to well positioned triple net income assets has helped to deliver a positive set of financial results, further increasing our net rental income, earnings per share and covered dividend. This puts us on track for a ninth consecutive year of dividend progression; a performance that puts us in a rarefied club."


And Rathbone praised the mechanices of LMP on Ian King's show.

[nexusltd] 20/11/2023 18:49

@alan. In this instance The Times is correct.
Thursday, 23 November 2023 @ 08:45 Interim Results Presentation
hxxps://www.londonmetric.com/investors/financial-calendar

[alan@bj] 20/11/2023 17:08

The Times today stated Thursday 23rd....but they have been known to get it wrong..

[nexusltd] 20/11/2023 11:48

@allan, Thanks. For some reason I have the interims in my diary for Wed 22nd.

[alan@bj] 20/11/2023 08:34

Interim results due this Thursday.

[hindsight] 03/11/2023 13:21

Cant say I had any complaints (its a buyers market), if only all my reits were the pnl of ctpt holding in lmp now

[nickrl] 03/11/2023 07:30

@petwy Selling down the assets the directors of CTPT gave away.

[grahamburn] 02/11/2023 18:18

No problem - should have written "SOLD" 8%. Apologies for omission.

[grahamburn] 02/11/2023 14:35

Suggest you read the RNS carefully, petewy.

LMP has, in simple terms, 8% of the investments acquired in their recent purchase of the CT Property Trust which may not have fitted LMP's investment criteria, as well as a separate investment which someone else wanted enough to approach LMP off market.

[petewy] 02/11/2023 11:11

LondonMetric Property Plc ("LondonMetric") announces the sale of four offices and two long income assets in separate transactions, for £24.5 million.

which means what?

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2023 10:09

Thanks, I had circa £2 NAV written down in my notes.

[nexusltd] 23/10/2023 11:23

31 March NAV reported as 198.90p
In May factsheet it reported that logistics/distribution is 73% of portfolio.
CBRE L6M logistics indices: cap growth +2.2%, rental growth +2.7%

[essentialinvestor] 23/10/2023 09:10

NAV should be around £2 a share?.

[williamcooper104] 22/10/2023 21:44

PLD and O have usually traded at premiums to NAVConversely BLND and LAND are almost always at discounts and have never let you down in underperformingPremium to NAV means you've got cheap equity

[skyship] 22/10/2023 21:03

One surefire way to lose money is to buy a propco at a premium to NAV.

[williamcooper104] 22/10/2023 16:34

Internally managed is worth c5%; that's an asset that's not in NAV - if you doubt that see what happens when managembt is internalised Add to that with LMP you've got if not the best then certainly one of the best teams The fair value of LMP is a premium to NAV - so wouldn't get too hung up on their relative discount to NAV

[nexusltd] 22/10/2023 16:25

@skyship. I too have been adding to LMP, started with 1st tranche in late June & added last week. Accepted the 1 yr chart; lower highs, and lower lows does not look great. So why am I adding?
1) I think they have excellent managers; not seen a miss-step.
2) Notwithstanding apparent better value in SREI and API, do you think the investors are more likely to pocket dividend growth from the likes of LMP and SGRO, or from API and SREI?

[essentialinvestor] 22/10/2023 11:59

Hi Sky, for me GPE is my relatively higher risk 'recovery' play.

I also hold BOOT in the wider property sector, which has a strong longer term record,
all be it past performance does not guarantee...etc.