London Scottish Bank Share Discussion Threads

[quraishim] 25/4/2008 16:07

Great recovery.....

[cn100] 25/4/2008 16:01

any change in l2 davius ? another shot if you can please.

[cn100] 25/4/2008 15:02

cheers davius. top man.

[cn100] 25/4/2008 14:31

anyone post a screenshot of l2?

thanks

[davius] 25/4/2008 13:48

If it was a one way ticket without risk everyone would be piling in.

In auction at 9.75p now after a brief flirtation above 10p

Edit: out at 9.62-9.75p

[johnspain] 25/4/2008 13:32

what they have is a largely unrecoverable loan book. They are not allowed to make new loans, hence can't generate any new income.
I agree that RW is profitable.
interesting possibility is why cattles are pursuing an application for a banking license at a large cost, when they could buy lsb and get the banking essentially for free.
This tells us one of two things, either cattles intend to make an offer for lsb or they don't want it even though it fits their plans.
your guess is as good as mine.

p.s. they do have some significant obligations associated with disposals.

[davius] 25/4/2008 13:24

What they have is a regulatory shortfall of 13.8m (at March 31st) which isn't the same thing as saying they have debts of twice their market cap.

They'll either turn it round, get taken out, or go to the wall. My money (small though it is) is on the former.

[johnspain] 25/4/2008 13:10

Ok, a simple example from me.

if someone said to you, I've got a company which owes at least as much as it's market cap, do you want to buy shares? would you?

[davius] 25/4/2008 12:59

Well if they make a placing it would be for perhaps a little lower than the share price and would dilute. But a rights issue wouldn't provided you take up your full entitlement, regardless of what they price it at. The share price tends to go for a mid equivalent price after a rights issue.

A simple example.

Current share price 10p, holding 10000 shares, market cap 10m
If they want to raise another 10m at 5p a share you would have the right to buy 20000 more shares at 5p each.
you would then hold 30000 shares at an average cost of 6.67p. Market price would typically settle above that level if the issue was considered a positive move, and below it if negative.

Where we small timers lose out is when they raise via a placing rather than a rights issue, but placings are usually at a smaller discount.

The point I'm getting at, it's the amount of money to be raised, not the rights issue price, that's important.

[johnspain] 25/4/2008 12:02

davius

"Assuming that they need to raise £13-14m (around the current market cap) that would dilute holdings by half"

that rather assumes they can get a rights issue away at the present share price, seems a little unlikely to me.

[dadyal] 25/4/2008 11:10

DAVIUS -PLEASE SELECT ONLY ONE OPTION EITHER HOMELESS OR RETIREMENT.
COME ON PAL SHOW US YOUR CONFIDENCE

[davius] 25/4/2008 10:30

I've decided to take a small stake for longer term recovery. I expect we'll see dillution via a placing or rights issue but once they sell of the loss making parts of the business they could still end up with a very profitable debt collection arm. Assuming that they need to raise £13-14m (around the current market cap) that would dilute holdings by half. Profits of say £7m a year would put them on a P/E of under 4 which would be good enough for strong rerating.

Bet your house on this one and you could either end up homeless or retiring early. But a small investment for recovery or the small possibility of a bid can't be too risky at these levels I'd have thought.

[quraishim] 25/4/2008 09:36

x5jwa...that 20p was pulled by some reporter from the straw...the actual value is higher than the price quoted.

[welshwiz] 25/4/2008 09:16

Agressive hedge fund-cammomille bought 4 mil of these of these a couple of days ago.Is this another Regus style type of recovery or a simple take-out story?cfd's make it easier to leverage when being aggresive...

[x5jwa] 25/4/2008 08:17

i keep hearing about a bid for this co at 20p if they sell they will be giving it away. the debt collection business is an excellent part of this and is worth a lot more. with the way the econamy looks it can only get better.

[cn100] 24/4/2008 18:39

I think the 250k buy was part of the 500k trade.

Possibly was going to be 2 x 250k trades but got a better price for the buyer hence put all 500k through at 9.24p and cancelled the 250k trade. IMO.

[davius] 24/4/2008 17:28

Below mid but above bid, quite possible another buy order that took a while to fill. There do seem to be some large trades going through over the last day or two with much less volatile share price action.

[waynz] 24/4/2008 16:54

500k sell gone through at 9.23 this must be a buy

[davius] 24/4/2008 16:10

What a quiet day. Nothing of note all day until a 100K buy order which just appeared. I thought there might be more action after that 4.6m buy yesterday.

Edit: And a 250K buy at 9.5p just gone through too

[dadyal] 24/4/2008 15:52

25cent - no good news, if there was any this stock would not made a loss of 37% yest after hitting plus 142%.

hope im wrong

[quraishim] 24/4/2008 15:03

25cent lol!!!!! pmsl...what do u mean :-)