Lombard Risk Management Share Discussion Threads

[mrpotatohead] 24/1/2017 09:26

I agree John, I guess investors are still cautious after years of overspend on r and d.

[tell it as it is] 24/1/2017 08:48

Net cash of GBP5.5m at end December is helpful info. Interesting though that now adjusting revenue expectations back down to a range of 30-32m for the year when previously it was 32m or higher from both FinnCap and Equity Development.A successful software company with revs of 32m (or even 30m) should have a market cap way higher than the current 35m. Begs the question of why the institutions are still holding back from buying if they believe the management line.

[glasshalfull] 23/1/2017 15:09

Webinar was interesting and helped answer a few points. Main aspect was the Q&A that followed the presentation & clarification on: -

* Cash - Net cash was approx £5.5m at 31.12.2016. No requirement for further cash. The CEO indicated they'd have raised more in June if it had been needed.

* Turnover - Historical pricing anomalies existed where they received less through directly selling product than they do through a partner such as Oracle. Now fixed with the investment in sales channels reaping rewards. Comfortable with market expectations of £30-£32m revenue in the current year.


Kind regards,
GHF

[aishah] 20/1/2017 14:34

Lombard Risk Management Webinar January 2017
Published: Jan 20 2017
You can now hear Alastair Brown, Chief Executive Officer, and Nigel Gurney, Chief Financial Officer, update investors on Lombard Risk Management and answer questions.
To view simply click on the video below.

[larva] 12/1/2017 07:43

Capitalising its r and d spend as intangibles rose by £2m to £17m

Without that this would be haemorraging its profits and bleading out

[tell it as it is] 10/1/2017 07:47

Never say never, but seems unlikely to me with almost three months left of the financial year

[larva] 10/1/2017 07:05

a profit warning coming given the delay to onboarding clients imho

will crash when it warns i suspect

[aishah] 09/1/2017 11:59

Techinvest 2017 tip with a rating of 5.

[larva] 06/1/2017 16:00

a profit warning coming given the delay to onboarding clients imho

[aishah] 06/1/2017 15:18

I added more today on this drop.

[tell it as it is] 06/1/2017 15:00

Hope you are right. Shame we have to take a step backwards before three steps forward

[aishah] 03/1/2017 14:12

Same editorial team in place at Techinvest. And they are still the investment manager of the MFM Techinvest Technology and MFM Techinvest Special Situations Funds. Personally, I have also done extremely well from their North American NAPS over the years and also from holdings in their Tech Fund. Long may it continue imo.

They commented on LRM in their last issue under their 2016 NAP review:
"we favour Lombard under its new management team to do a whole lot better over the coming year. The company is now much more focussed on botton-line profitability and 2017 could be the year that this really starts to pay off"

LRM was a NAP at 11.25p last year with a rating of 5. I expect it to be there again with a higher rating this year. dyor

[tell it as it is] 02/1/2017 12:52

Glad to hear that about TechInvest. They have been a good team. Also very glad to see a few private investors return to this bulletin board. Unfortunately when a company like LRM under its new management starts to burn cash aka invest ahead of revenues at the rate of £9m pa, the institutions have no incentive to invest because they think there is a good chance there will be another placing. So the share price needs retail investors to buy or else the shares will remain very cheap until everyone is clear there will not need to be another fundraising, which management believe there will not.

[opodio] 30/12/2016 18:22

Tecknivest no longer written by the same team has also cut off its ties with the MFM tech fund. Written by a hack with five minutes experience
No longer interested to read it for that reason.

[aishah] 29/12/2016 15:16

Welcome aboard GHF abd BB2. Techinvest are a big fan and have also added more recently. I'm expecting them to make it a NAP tip for 2017 in the next issue. As usual, investors please dyor.

[battlebus2] 29/12/2016 13:55

Also in for a few, held before but always disappointed with Wisbey in charge. Changes beginning to bear fruit.

[glasshalfull] 29/12/2016 12:50

Agree AISHAH.

Courtesy to declare I've been a buyer during recent sessions.

I've been a holder in LRM previously but left some time back as never saw the company as anything but "jam tomorrow" under previous management.

I was impressed with traction made in H1 2016/17 as Alastair Brown set about growing turnover and profitability. The momentum generated in H1 which translated to 40% growth in turnover marked a turning point for me, alongside new partnerships with both Oracle & Atos... the catalyst for an initial investment.

There are a number of hurdles ahead. While net cash at the end of H1 was £6.9m this is forecast to fall to £1.4m by year end due to the ongoing investment in product development & costs associated with the new development centre in Birmingham.
We've also had years of R&D capitalisation which have somewhat massaged results. May well prove to be the same old story.

However, I now believe this a decent risk/reward proposition. Bull & bear cases covered by a number of investors / contributors that I value on this thread, with links to broker notes and management presentations.

In summary I believe the current investment case centres on:-

* Beneficial regulatory environment - Growing sector with LRM pushing at an open door following introduction of swathes of financial reporting requirements worldwide & even more on the horizon
* Sticky customer base - LRM’s 90%+ retention rates & market leading position with "30 of top 50 global institutions" as clients
* Turnover growth - H1 2016/17 demonstrated a step-change in revenue growth, +40% on previous interim period
* Improving order book - contracted orders +35% on 2015
* Partnerships - Oracle & Atos provide further credibility to product range & open up multiple selling opportunities.
* Recurring revenues - In H1 2016/17 were 40% of total revenues
* Margins - 99% gross margins & benefits of operational gearing (hopefully) from 2017/18
* Management buying stock - CEO bought 500k@ 9.25p & CFO 170k@ 9p following the interims.
* Cash position - As mentioned, "should" have sufficient cash to see them through to profitability. Following planned investment estimated to have £1.4m net cash on 31.03.2017

FinnCap have a 16.5p price target & note,

"Costs were controlled in H1 to deliver adj. EBITDA of £1.6m compared with the £2.3m loss we had forecast for the full year. H2 will still see significant investment, but the FY is likely to be nearer breakeven."

& upgraded forecasts

"Given the H1 profitability, we have reduced the anticipated adj. EBITDA loss for FY Mar 2017 from £2.3m to £0.2m. Cash will still be impacted by capitalised R&D (£2.8m in H1 and estimated £6.3m across the FY) however the business already looks stronger and more profitable than before."

---

Kind regards,
GHF

[aishah] 16/12/2016 15:35

Looks very cheap if they hit the numbers:

"In terms of the full year numbers, we are pencilling in FY17 revenues and EBITDA of £31.8m and -£6.7m (post £6.3m R&D capitalisation) respectively, rising to £59m and £10m (margin 17%) by FY20. Moreover, our forecasts suggest there should be no need to raise additional capital, given that the business is expected to break-even next year on turnover of £39.9m. So what do we think is a reasonable value for LRM? Well, assuming things go to plan, our DCF model indicates a figure of 20p/share, based on a blend of FY20 exit multiples, discounted back at 12% and adjusted for cash."

[brummy_git] 15/12/2016 09:37

New research out this morning from Equity development

hxxps://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/edreader/?d=%3D%3DgM0IjM

[aishah] 08/12/2016 10:14

Good to see another bigge partnering with Lombard. Atos reveune 12bn Euro; 100,000 employees in 72 countries. Lots of scope imo.

[paddyfool] 08/12/2016 09:41

There is normally a couple of potential wins in the pipeline behind these announcements. So we should be pleased with the revenue to come here.

[paddyfool] 18/11/2016 17:09

Interesting I bought a further 200,000 of these today, and they are nowhere to be seen on the trades.

[aishah] 18/11/2016 13:58

MFM Techinvest Special Situations Fund added last month:

The Fund added to its position in Lombard Risk Management during October
after the Company announced results for the six months to September 30, which showed record first-half revenue up 41.2% year-on-year.

[aishah] 09/11/2016 13:38

Fintech: Easing the regulatory burden and the path to survival

1 November 2016 • Source: James Phillips, Global Head of Regulatory Strategy, Lombard Risk