Lok'n Store Share Discussion Threads

[mitzis] 30/4/2007 18:07

Agree with you there wan 100mills is the next step and it wont be long now judging by todays performance..

[wan] 30/4/2007 10:58

Mitz...Strictly in my opinion only, I think £100m will merely be a stepping stone en route (which is still way below SAFE p/sq/ft value) so it should just be a case of when.

[mitzis] 30/4/2007 09:02

Wan:

The IC artcile is exactly what the Times said last week to the word.
Although the Times says Buy.
This has the makings of a 100 mill company.

[wan] 30/4/2007 07:23

Quick update...LOK in the results section of the IC, with an IC view mentioning the discount in valuation between LOK at £87.50 per sq ft and SAFE at £154 per sq ft and BYG at £309 per sq ft as being too harsh.

Like I said there is plenty of room for the discount to narrow, especially if your investment horizon is beyond the short term. In the interim LOK's competitive pricing should equate to their market share and strong performance being, at the very least, maintained, as exemplified by the maiden dividend announcement.

Regards, wan

[mitzis] 26/4/2007 09:01

Break out this am..fingers crossed it continues..

[wan] 26/4/2007 07:33

BTW...BYG f/y results are on 21st May, and it will be interesting to make the next comparison.

[wan] 26/4/2007 07:30

Vassily...Thanks. Your post implied that the comparison of LOK as the tortoise was the basis for the discount, however, my suggestion is that the discount is centred around LOK's size relative to the others. If we take a quick look at figures from the most recent results (and most relavent, with LOK's new store format also starting to bite etc), then LOK is really starting to perform especially when compared to BYG -

From BYG and LOK recent interims -

BYG revenue up 20%
LOK revenue up 23.8%

BYG Profit before tax up 39%
LOK profit before tax up 504%

BYG occupied space up 9%
LOK occupied space up 15.9%

That is an operational view point, however, it is the property portfolio/pipline where BYG is ahead of LOK (ie size). Nonetheless BYG serves as a guide/comparison for LOK's potential, in other words, it appears there is plenty of room/potential for the wide discount to narrow. Food for thought and as usual time will tell though.

Regards, wan

[vassily] 26/4/2007 03:59

Lots of good tortoise facts. Bodes well.
Wan: I used a tortoise because LOK's rate of expansion is or was far behind BYG. I was not comparing company size.
Have a good day.

[mitzis] 25/4/2007 19:05

Vas:

Perhaps investors are switching from BYG and Safe and reinvesting in Lok.. who are far too cheap..also there was an article suggesting that clients were transferring to Lok.
Tortoises live longer than hares.

[johnrxx99] 25/4/2007 13:41

If it is the toutoise, we know who won the race.

[wan] 25/4/2007 12:42

Vassily...I was not suggesting a quick ascent to double where we are now. However, LOK is undervalued when compared to the other two. Also I would not agree that LOK are the tortoise, the smaller yes, and that is where the discount is probably coming from, however, things are changing quite fast at LOK.

Regards, wan

[vassily] 25/4/2007 11:57

Whilst LOK might climb it is possible that SAFE and BYG prices will stagnate, dare I say it, even decline a little. I think we can see that BYG and to some extent SAFE have stalled at the moment; they are stuck in a price range right now. People don't seem to want to pay more for these shares at present. Perhaps they just lack some news; perhaps not. It's unclear.

LOK might be a beneficiary of these high valuations, but I am not convinced LOK's share price will rush to match the valuations of BYG and SAFE per sq ft. They are after all the tortoise as opposed to the hare. Not so many back the tortoise, at first.

Edit: Nevertheless, happy to hold and add.

[mitzis] 25/4/2007 09:17

Great post as usual wan:

However you value LOK they remaincheap in comparison to BYG and SAFE as the Telegraph mentioned yesterdayadvising investors to Buy they are valued at a third of BYG on a sq ft basis and with the current expansion of 2 stores a year perhaps more in 2008 they are on a growth pattern to attain 30 plus stores in 2 or 3 years and the shares are trading just above Nav where BYG are trading at 70%.. I remain confident of the future prospects of LOK..in particulare I like the management they are young and keen.

[wan] 25/4/2007 07:48

I note yesterday we had a late reported protected trade of 58,618 at 277p.

A few thoughts...Obviously the residential plannning decision at Reading could provide for another key price mover here, along with any update on the property pipeline/portfolio, in short anything which underscores/accelerates the already good momenetum. With the new store format/programme well underway I can conceivably (and conservatively) see LOK doubling from here (note the comment that LOK's per sq ft value is half that of SAFE). Somewhere enroute to that higher ground, LOK will almost certainly convert to REIT (note the commencement of a dividend policy). These longer term plans could be scuppered though, because when one takes a look at the existing UK self-storage playing field (and indeed its growth potential), LOK looks quite vulnerable to a bid, in particular from the likes of Shurgard (the biggest player) who looks to have a relatively weak hand in the UK compared to SAFE and BYG. The market though is starting to recognise that LOK's management have the experience and expertise to deliver on the growth that self-storge is offering, without a takeover, however, any share price weakness will exacerbate the risk of being taken out, but that in itself appears to offer downside protection. Perhaps I am being too confident though, so any other thoughts anyone?

Regards, wan

[vassily] 24/4/2007 11:42

Kt:
Independent tip said "speculative buy", I believe.

[kievtrader] 24/4/2007 11:38

i heard have been tipped in independant too today

[mitzis] 24/4/2007 09:17

Never expected them to pay a dividend wan which is a surprise.

Tempus from the Times is very supportive..



I like the last paragraph which states their sites are valued at 80 pound a sq ft which is one third the valuation of BYG.. and half that of Safestore.

[vassily] 23/4/2007 10:26

Good news indeed.

Nice to read company is gaining more momentum.
I have been holder since mid 2003 and agree with Wan's patient approach to LOK.

Seems some good news may be built into current price rise, though I could be wrong.

V

[mitzis] 23/4/2007 09:21

Great news Wan...

[wan] 23/4/2007 08:42

First upgrade...Bridgewell upgrading the group to 'buy' from 'overweight'-

[silverfern] 23/4/2007 08:34

the reduced gearing is a very positive move. Any forward look cannot rule out the sale at many times book value of other lucrative sites. The market cap comes nowhere near the value of the sites imho

[wan] 23/4/2007 08:29

All...Appears there were a lot of profit takers in the wings. Points of note for those with longer term horizons are, the 'fully funded' expansion programme, the management declaring the commencement of a dividend, which highlights not only their confidence in the full year outcome, but importantly the business going forwards. Also a dividend policy sits well with REIT conversion, step one?

ps...I think there will be broker upgrades.

Regards, wan

[andyh78] 23/4/2007 07:51

Excellent results, EPS 1.92 ony nearly half a mill of profit.

Double that for the full year, plus over 8 mill profit on disposal,

So £9 mill profit for the year.

And your looking at EPS of around 36 p for the full year, putting us on a P/E of around 7.