The Local Shopping Reit Share Discussion Threads

[alanji] 12/12/2014 16:26

You been buying then BT?

[badtime] 12/12/2014 12:23

36.75 to buy

[redhill9] 05/12/2014 11:25

Thanks Alan. As you say, hopefully only a couple of weeks before we should hear something to clarify, unless of course there's a sale announcement before then.

I'd assumed that the £90m originally quoted (perhaps informally?) for the remaining properties for sale after Minard would have been c.NAV and I had allowed for a reduction of NAV on actual sale, hence my range of 41p to 43p for final liquidation. However if you're right (and I recognise this isn't certain) that the NAV was nearer £84.5m then there appears to be a good deal of positive leeway already in the prospective sale price of £90m..... or £87m... or something similar.

This still looks a good bet to me, especially as I doubt it will take 12 months to distribute at least the majority of the cash but it's a little odd that the market doesn't seem excited, which may be a worry.

[alanji] 05/12/2014 10:48

Been having another look at the figures. I think Renouvier is for all remaining properties.
629 properties were held at 31 March and there were several individual sales post March. Minard sold 235 properties. Renouvier has 387 properties.
Value of properties not held for sale at 31 March was £84.5m so it appears that any sale in excess of that (after costs) will result in an increase to nav - or am I missing something?
Is it possible that a few properties in Renouvier were sold after the initial brochure publication resulting in the reduction from £90m to £87m.
We will find out soon - estimated date for finals is 18 December.

[redhill9] 04/12/2014 18:17

Agreed, but what impact does that have on NAV?

[eeza] 04/12/2014 18:13

May be more prudent to assume <£87m.

[redhill9] 04/12/2014 18:06

Thanks for offer Skyship but I don't seem to be able to create a message, possibly because I'm only a free member? I have a final distribution range of 41p to 43p in my spreadsheet and anything above 41p gives an attractive return on a 12 month view, although as you say if the timescales are shorter the yield rises dramatically.

Thanks EezyMunny for link, I see the £87m but odd that they haven't put Renouvier on their marketing list.

What I'm struggling with is what effect a "reduction" from £90m to £87m would have on the projected distribution, assuming of course the £90m is the value in the latest NAV figure (which may be a completely wrong assumption!).

[skyship] 04/12/2014 17:53

Eezy - agreed, an interesting discrepancy from the original project prospectus:

"We are instructed to seek offers for the share capital of the four companies
which own the properties based on the capital value of the properties
in excess of £90,000,000 (Ninety Million Pounds), subject to contract."

[eezymunny] 04/12/2014 17:39

The £87m from here...just FYI.

hxxp://www.allsop.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/FINAL_Allsop_NI_Portfolio_Trans_Brochure_AW-11.14_LR.pdf

But not sure where I got the £90m (prob just press rumours which may have been wrong anyway). So I clearly can't be sure that price has been dropped.

[skyship] 04/12/2014 17:35

The thing to remember here is that the much reduced liquidation timescale is the key to the better return:

# 42p delivered by 30/09/15 provides a 16.7% GRY return from 37p

# 42p delivered by 30/09/16 provides a 7.2% GRY return from 37p

That 42p is a very conservative figure. I'm hoping for 44p+.

[skyship] 04/12/2014 17:29

Redhill - I keep checking every couple of days or so, but No - Project Renouvier has never come up on the website.

As I posted a few weeks ago, I do have the prospectus (courtesy of Allsops); so if you would like to see a copy - just send me yr email in a Secure Message - see the box beneath the ADVFN logo at the top of the page...

[redhill9] 04/12/2014 17:21

EezyMunny, you say you saw the figure of £87m on the Allsop website? I've just looked and I can't see any mention of Project Renouvier on the Allsop website list of commercial property "currently marketing" (and there aren't any portfolios for sale under other names anywhere near £87m) and it's not in the "recent deals" either, although Minard is still showing there. A search for Renouvier on the website shows no results.

The original quote on the CoStar report (see post 876 above by Skinny) was "seeking offers of in excess of £90m" which may be where you got £90m from. I don't think we know at what value these properties are carried in the latest NAV do we, which makes it a bit tricky knowing what sale value to expect, and judging whether £90m is good, bad, or middling?

[badtime] 04/12/2014 16:35

Thnx for reply

[eezymunny] 04/12/2014 16:33

No. Saw it on the brochure on the website....but I confess I may be dreaming that it originally said £90m. Think I'm about 80% sure.

[badtime] 04/12/2014 16:18

Ez..did u contact Alsops re the asking price?

[eezymunny] 04/12/2014 15:54

I shouldn't worry about my thoughts too much. I've a terribly nervous disposition. Better safe than sorry approach. I sold for the reasons stated - boss man leaving and (I think) the reduced price.

Might sell for £100m tomorrow. Bit of a coin toss I guess. Good luck.

[skyship] 04/12/2014 14:40

I see he reports on his EEZY thread as follows:

LSR bought 17/10/14 12000 at 35.64p sold 20/11/14 37.49 profit £212

Reckon I'll hold and await events as the return still looks likely to be well in excess of 12% in less than a year...

[eeza] 04/12/2014 12:50

Anyone got any comments:-


EezyMunny
20 Nov'14 - 09:16 - 797 of 830 0 0

Sold LSR 37.4p

Allsops have, I think, reduced the price of the remaining prop portolio from £90m to £87m, so perhaps not a queue of buyers out here. That, combined with the departure of the CEO makes me a tad nervous, perhaps wrongly....but given somewhat limited upside...

[badtime] 04/12/2014 11:09

Interesting to see the ask come down

[badtime] 03/12/2014 19:31

Sky...thats why i was wondering how things were going..not that i expected anyone to know....exchange deadline seemed very quick to me..but then wtfdik

[mad foetus] 03/12/2014 16:22

Thanks Boss, I like the look of LSR, may have a nibbleGood luck

[skyship] 03/12/2014 15:32

MF - no, residential property only (I think), in any event anything under £937k not affected.

A positive of course is the increase from £1000 to £1500 for the business rate rebate.

[mad foetus] 03/12/2014 14:58

Hi Skyship,
do you know if the stamp duty changes in the budget will affect the bidding process?

[skyship] 03/12/2014 14:57

Actually the timescale for Project Renouvier is rather rapid; certainly stated as far faster than for Project Minard which was c4months if I recall correctly:

# OCT - Access to Data Room
# Early NOV - First round bids
# Mid NOV - Final bids
# Early DEC - Exchange

Whether they can adhere to such a fast-track timescale we will see shortly.

[holts] 03/12/2014 12:51

Sllloooowwwwwllllllyyy