Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 26/7/2023 14:03

Can't even buy a single share right now.

[74tom] 26/7/2023 13:58

1m volume since 2pm - someone is desperate to retain control of the price action here - at any cost it would seem!

[74tom] 26/7/2023 13:23

Classic illiquid action from LIT, playing the technicals to perfection with a test of the resistance just shy of 100p before pulling back to support on some profit taking. Now a seller appears to have arrived - but is it more wash trading? Hmmmm. Selling with one account & buying with another to try and flush sellers out would suit the agenda of a buyer struggling for stock…

[ntv] 26/7/2023 13:22

Bit of a drop for some reason?

[someuwin] 26/7/2023 10:32

No buy quote available now.

[nchanning] 26/7/2023 09:53

Sorry Jackson , you have waged a beautiful campaign of confusing posts and random full stops that kept the price down while Warren Buffett accumulated LIT shares through a series of Cayman Island shell companies . But the war is over enjoy the ride .

[someuwin] 26/7/2023 09:09

Should be over the £1 level soon. And then on towards new highs by results time imo.

[chucko1] 25/7/2023 13:45

Strong buy + sufficient patience.

[74tom] 25/7/2023 13:37

Hahahah. Keep off the smarties 'Jackson83'.

Your games won't work here anymore with record results & a chunky dividend waiting in the wings. Add in the imminent resumption of broker coverage with likely significant upgrade to the £1.40 target price at the time forecasts were suspended last July + more case settlements on the way and you've got yourself a STRONG BUY.

[jackson83] 25/7/2023 02:12

can we get to 900p or settle for 92p

before the selloff starts as this aways gets sold off lol






looks like Funky Finance was buying that 100k lol


Mateus had a wig on and wore dark sunglasses WHEN HE TOLD US this could go to 800p/900p minimum ... 8 x bagger ?where is he anyone ..



maybe he is YOU KNOW WHO.



74tom

[kpo115] 20/7/2023 13:05

The 100k I bought a couple of days ago and signalled here are, so far, doing gratifyingly well. What pleases me most short-term, though, is the prospect of a tax-free £2250 dividend!

[hunter154] 20/7/2023 12:18

Once FV is disclosed, the NAV could easily be £250m……£2+ per share.

The easiest quick double in my spehere.

[74tom] 20/7/2023 09:23

Yep, that's a really good point @citywolf1. This was what they said in the interims;

"Direct investments

Two investments have been successful at first instance, one of which is subject to an appeal which was heard in February 2023 and the other is subject to a challenge as announced on 23 February 2023

One investment was unsuccessful at first instance but is subject to a challenge

Awaiting a judgment or award in three further investments

Final hearings scheduled for three further investments in 2023 calendar year"

One of the Feb investments was settled as per the 22nd June RNS with A$11.5m returned from an A$2.9m investment. However, that leaves the other Feb investment which was subject to an appeal (Katy Perry I think?)

So we had 3 awaiting judgement & 3 final hearings still to be concluded.

One of these could be the Rabah property case that we purchased from a liquidator. There has already been a A$20m award, for which LIT is due 85%, presumably this is just awaiting final sign off?

The second one could be Linchpin. There was a settlement concluded a few weeks ago for A$6.3m, which equals LIT's legal costs. However, this has been rolled forward to fund the final part of the claim against insurer AIG.

That leaves 4 which are unknown. I suspect this is where the FV change will have the largest impact - but I'm sure we'll learn more when the final results land!

[nchanning] 20/7/2023 09:17

They haven't made it clear what the threshold for RNSing case wins is , but if they say invested 5m AUD in a case and got a 13m AUD return it seems like they wouldn't mention it and we would only see it appear in the results

[citywolf1] 20/7/2023 08:33

Nice rise again with the announcment of the Indiana case surely helping. Confirmed as being a Fund 1 investment. One does have to wonder what is going on with all the direct cases; at HY we had $65m of deployed capital over 4 years old and all in direct cases. Getting some of those over the line would have a big impact on balance sheet and most will surely be great returns given the rising multiple over time dynamic. Hopefully this year is the year!

[nchanning] 20/7/2023 07:31

Seems pretty standard for sovereigns to make a bit of a fuss , try a pointless appeal then pay . Not only are there always ways to seize assets , it's not good for business to be flouting international law and refusing to pay judgements. Just a bit of political posturing required first , for which LIT is compensated for by a higher payout

[maddox] 20/7/2023 07:09

Another great case win today - let's see whether the RNS of a positive case outcome lifts the share price?

[74tom] 20/7/2023 06:26

Nice to see clarification from the company & the positives of the new fair value policy being highlighted;

“The investment however is no longer attended with liability and quantum risk as that has been decided.“

In such situations it clearly makes sense to recognise a fair value mark up pending final settlement. How much that is remains to be seen.

Ps. L2B, the silliest quote I’ve seen from on here this week was “IMO looks like mgt caved to Short Termers hoping for a couple of bags.“

If that doesn’t scream arrogance then I don’t know what does.

[l2b] 20/7/2023 06:08

IDA gives Tanzania until 17-Aug to pay up
cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02688497-6A1159154?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Then expectations is we move to airplane seizures
simpleflying.com/air-tanzania-aircraft-seizure-100m-mining-compensation-claim/?newsletter_popup=1

It's worked before against Tanzanian government
www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/air-tanzania-plane-seized-in-the-netherlands-released-returns-home-4297688

Claims that Tanzania seeking to annul - good luck with that fellas - you lost and were ordered to pay the full whack.
www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/tanzania-to-fight-order-to-pay-foreign-investor-109-5-million-4308396

P.S. Thanks for the technical correction Maddox - I used MTM over FV outta habit/convenience but FV is more appropriate - I trust no confusion caused to others as it's understood there's no active market
P.P.S. It amazes me that people think forecasting is reliable or even scientific - as Galbraith said 'There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.'

Edit - RNS out - 3PTY claim & positive about enforcement

[robsy2] 19/7/2023 20:00

Whatever. It seems to be working.

[warno01] 19/7/2023 14:22

If the SEC are supporting fair value accounting methodology for the biggest player in the industry (BUR) then all other players will need to follow inc LIT. It's a good move. Ultimately you still mark up or down based on milestones and decisions but it's about having a standard on which you can consistently judge progress by case value.

[74tom] 19/7/2023 14:22

I would think everyone reading these boards is aware of what happened with Muddy Waters. Fast forward 4 years and the SEC want the largest industry player to comply with accounting rules via a system which actually increases BUR’s fair value estimates. That provides a heap load more credibility to the methodology & framework.

I can tell you one thing, it’s a heck of a lot more logical than some of the accounting related to property & investment trusts like HEIT.

[nchanning] 19/7/2023 14:08

MANO have a cool system for getting book value up . As soon as they sign a case they write up its value because obviously they wouldn't have bought the case unless it was worth more than they paid .

[maddox] 19/7/2023 14:06

Ok - couldn't stay shtum. It was, as L2B observed above ( Fair Value Accounting that was the basis for Muddy Waters' short attack on BUR: 'management cooking the books' - 'over-valuing cases' - 'running out of cash', plus some added colour.

Then there was a carbon copy short attack on MANO - that also use fair value accounting.