Thanks L2B |
Reading the Panthera Resources RNS this morning , was interested to see that this is a case where LCM are entitled to between 5 and 15 % of the damages ( as well as a time based multiple ) . Given Panthera are claiming that the Indian governments own survey calculated an in ground gold value of 16.7 billion USD this could be an interesting one ....Arbitration calendar to be set in 2025 |
A win for LCM!
The Linchpin case was split into two - the first against Linchpin & directors and the second against the insurer (AIG).
They won the first back in Jun-23 but the bigger one against AIG now was also successful.
First one was a $6m payout but the second will be bigger given claiming >$20m + costs.
3-Feb-25 is a hearing on costs+interest.
It's a 2020 case so can't remember off the top of my head if DM or 3PTY funded.
www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2024/2024fca1472#_Ref185412883 |
 Canaccord (Portia Patel and Justin Bates) produced a note on 17 December, which I think is available on Research Tree.
For me, it is the first analyst note produce a clear and sensible valuation framework, which should hopefully encourage institutional investors.
Canaccord focus on price to book. To look at this they build a 10-year high level model based on cash returns and ignore fair value adjustments. Cost versus “fair” value has been discussed on this and other boards. Both have merits, but cost and cash is cleaner and simpler. The key assumptions, which must have been sense checked with management are as follows.
• Annual commitments: A$250m split A$187m fund and A$63m balance sheet
• Deployment: 75% of commitment vintage evenly over 4 years (25% pa)
• Realisation: After 48 months at MOIC of 2.5x
• Fees: 25% on 3rd party profits with no management fees
• Expenses: FY25E A$19.8m to A$70m in FY34E
Overall, the analysts appear to have been quite conservative. LCM is currently deploying at about the assumed rate before any additional US deployment. The MOIC is less than historical, which did not have the fund performance fee boost. I doubt Patrick would allow costs to go up 3.5x to deploy same level of capital.
The analysts calculate a realised PBT (excluding FV) and based on equity (excluding FV) they estimate an ROE of 17% through the cycle. They use this to imply a 1.7x P/BV, which they discount by 25% to 1.3x, which they apply to the mean FY25E to FY34E NAV to arrive at a per share value of 182p up from 146p in Sep(prior to more detailed analysis). While there are several "steps" or assumptions in the valuation, which is based on a 10-year forecast, the analysis does focus quite simply and clearly on four or five key value drivers. Hopefully, this, together with Cavendish’s notes re LCM's development and market context, will enable institutional investors to engage. Earlier in the year, I was quite critical about the company's and advisors' attempts to explain a complicated story to the market. They have certainly addressed that over the last 6 months.
In passing, the analysts comment on concentration risk and note a similar concentration re one more Australian class action with cost overruns at A$25m and a few more at $A10m to 13m (NB LCM B/S exposure).
Happy Xmas to everyone. |
LCM is funding a £1bn collective action against Microsoft (via Dr Maria Luisa Stasi and S+S) - re overcharging of UK companies.
LCM now with CAT claims against both Microsoft & Apple.
scott-scott.com/scottscott-sues-microsoft-for-over-1billion/
www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20wjnxr5ldo |
Don't think the google result should have really been a shock , appeals usually lose ...Hopefully we have news from Poland's Greenex appeal soon , which is even more likely to lose than a normal appeal ... |
our luck will change one day lol re chalking up the Ls - 3 in a row now |
The Google appeal was dismissed - couple of days ago coinciding with share price fading.
LCM chalking up the Ls - 3 in a row now - only Pep is on a worse run!
Hopefully not too much $$ put in.
Also probably best to stay away from these tech claims - “We consider that a representative class claim for misuse of private information is always going to be very difficult to bring. This is because relevant circumstances will affect whether there is a reasonable expectation of privacy for any particular claimant, which will itself affect whether all of the represented class have “the same interest”.R21;
www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Prismall-v-Google-UK-Ltd-Approved-judgment-11.12.24.pdf |
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wow wow wow
had a top up at 100p |
its 101p
if it goes below 100p i will be toast !
stop loss |
how low can this go
now its 102p |
Friday 13th so why not top up 103p lol |
Spot on and there's the RNS with Boutique Capital Tectonic Opportunities. |
I think there's really one explanation that makes sense with the share price reaction here - there were some institutions very eager for stock at 119p last week but there was no liquidity, so they've taken advantage of the temporary surge in liquidity to gobble some stock even after the bad news |
It seems like people have calmed down.
With 150m usd of headroom to invest, closing a new fund should get people again focusing on the medium run |
So far today the market isn't agreeing with the scaremongering BUR etc shareholders. And for LIT a decent volume too! |
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