Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[citywolf1] 10/9/2023 20:57

Would be great to try and keep a tab of outstanding LIT cases in the public domain. For starters I have:

Katy Perry
Rabah
Indiana/Tanzania
GreenX/Poland
Panthera/India
GoviaThamesLink
Craft (Arbitration)

Class actions (on LCM website):
QLD energy
QLD tolls
Quintis
Gladstone Ports

Further input welcome!

[dekle] 10/9/2023 09:46

I’m a fan of BUR & LIT and happy shout out loud for both. However, even if I had no interest in BUR I would be happy for those who do have an interest

[scubadiverr] 09/9/2023 09:23

Hopefully, following Burford's YPF judgement yesterday, we'll see numerous press articles creating greater awareness of Litigation funding as an asset class. With that and surely stellar results I think we may well be at a major inflection point

[solarno lopez] 07/9/2023 11:20

agree and still lots of poisoners to come

[boozey] 06/9/2023 13:00

L2B posted on it a while ago. He/she more than any other poster seems to have a finger on the pulse! Very grateful for his/her occasional posts!

[maddox] 06/9/2023 09:41

Thx L2B, has that case been RNS'd previously - I don't see it?

[l2b] 06/9/2023 09:00

LCM purchased case against Rabah looks to be heading for appeal
www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/nsw/NSWCA/2023/203.html?stem=0&synonyms=0&query=lcm

"appeal likely to be heard and determined in four months"

[someuwin] 05/9/2023 10:52

Two weeks today until:

FY Results.

Analysts presentation.

Investors presentation.

Dividend timetable announcement.

And hopefully resumption of broker coverage.

[solarno lopez] 05/9/2023 10:18

And so they should after yesterdays announcement which followed some very strong updates

[someuwin] 04/9/2023 13:18

Buyers coming in now.

[hunter154] 04/9/2023 09:17

Certainly the case for European cases.
The good thing for us is that seasonality doesn't affect us as much due to the cases having wide geographical spread.

[luweiluwei] 04/9/2023 07:31

Very nice.
Summer vacation has also ended now. Hopefully the pace of cases finishing picks up again.

[74tom] 04/9/2023 07:26

The fund model is generating some amazing returns from very little risked capital - to turn A$3.4m into A$17m in a couple of years is outstanding.

A note on increased commitments is also really good to see. Bodes very well for FY24 and beyond.

[leadixon] 04/9/2023 07:21

Making some really good progress here after a few stagnant years, great to see more case completions coming through just before results

[someuwin] 04/9/2023 07:19

Patrick Moloney, CEO of LCM, said:

"This settlement is a positive start to the fiscal year, demonstrating the momentum LCM's portfolio has gained over the last six months. We continue to scale our portfolio of investments through increased commitments which are a key indicator of future growth and long term shareholder value."

[someuwin] 01/9/2023 14:32

Ticking up on low volume - always a good sign.

[hunter154] 31/8/2023 13:39

Panthera had said they identified 1.7m JORC compliant resource and then were denied the exploration licence.
In simple terms, gold explorers can be valued as a measure of ounces in ground. Even the least optimistic valuation of Bhukia project, at $50 per oz gives $85m value. Bear in mind that the Geological survey of India drilled many more holes and think that there could be 6m+ oz at Bhukia…..$300m.

The potential reward here could be sizeable- particularly if gold keeps going up in value and bursts through $2000 level for the third time.

[citywolf1] 31/8/2023 12:59

Surprised there hasn’t been an RNS given they posted the win on LinkedIn and the financial details have been made public. Suggests they are now not announcing all wins as this was quite chunky (and thus there may be some further upside in the Sept announcement)

[nchanning] 31/8/2023 10:36

Personally I would be happy for large wins to turn up in Fund 1 even though it would mean a smaller win for LIT . If Fund 1 is a roaring success LIT is very likely to be able to raise a larger Fund 3 on the same lucrative terms as Fund 1 .

[74tom] 30/8/2023 15:57

Thanks L2B, I'd actually assumed the legal costs were part of the A$33m that was in previous documentation, so that is a nice bonus, it's also a better MOIC than I expected too. So many irons in the fire - the GreenX arbitration against Poland could also be announced any day as we are now 9 months on since the completion of the arbitration hearing, that was an A$18m investment the return there could be material.

I've also bought into Panthera, the legal funding is nearly equal to their current market cap! Well worth a bit of research time.

[someuwin] 30/8/2023 15:20

Cheers L2B - good posts.

Incidentally, I've bought a few Panthera (PAT) shares too. The fact that LIT is funding the arbitration is a big vote of confidence. And at only £14m valuation any decent award / recovery should be worth multiples.

[l2b] 30/8/2023 15:06

Good to see Panthera being signed up. Decent amount too. 
Seems like a similar case to IDA so hopefully same result. 

Speaking of IDA, they informed the ASX that ICSID has formed a committee to consider the annulment. 
And the Tanzanian President requested a meeting with IDA - should be a short convo - you stole, you lost, pay up. 
cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02703106-6A1164876?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Also Interesting stat on Annulments with ICSID - the % of successful annulments is low single digit and with only 1 case annulled in the last decade (out of a few hundred) - so probability is on our side. 
We should find out soon.
Interest continues to accrue... 

[l2b] 30/8/2023 15:00

As we know, PFAS claim approved a few days ago.

No RNS so maybe some details to be ironed out - not sure if posted but this was the split:
LCM gets $42.1m, being
- $8.9m costs 
- $33.2m commission

=> So that's a 3.7x ROIC. 

Here's the final judgment (refer E.I on pg 16)
www.comcourts.gov.au/file/Federal/P/NSD431/2020/3887497/event/31453558/document/2156849

Let's wait on the direct v 3PTY split - case is 2020 but remember even though Fund I closed in 2020 it actually started investing in 2019.  

Closer call for Rabah which was a sale from liquidator to LCM in Aug-2019. 

I would like both direct (or at least Rabah) but who knows. 

[johnwig] 30/8/2023 13:59

I hailed a passing vaticinator instead. (No, spectoacc, it looks nothing like an incinerator...) He muttered gnomically: "ONE TWO THREE". What could he possibly have meant???