Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[hunter154] 19/9/2023 10:26

Thanks Citywolf- I haven't had a chance to read full RNS yet.
I will tune into the webcast this evening to get more flavour on status quo.

[hunter154] 19/9/2023 10:24

Its going to be really interesting to what the Broker forecasts look like in the coming weeks.

Also, the balance sheet investments still on their books were higher than I thought.
If these crystallise over the next 12m then it should ramp earnings/cash into FY24.

Management clearly think that we are undervalued hence the buybacks announced. On the back of these results I am very tempted to top up but unfortunately, this already is my largest holdings. I expected a bigger jump in Share Price today.

[citywolf1] 19/9/2023 10:23

Hunter - I think the slightly lower than expected net assets is probably because there is $37m of legacy cases still being held at cost "due to the time at which they were entered into" (i.e. mature) and these are "expected to realise in the short to medium term" (note 12 in the accounts).

So realistically these could probably be valued at at least 2x given their age. This would add another c.$40m to net assets

[hunter154] 19/9/2023 09:40

A183m/1.93 on 120m shares

[greenknight1] 19/9/2023 09:35

I could be wrong as there is a lot in there but I calculate fund-excluded NAV to be around 11 times smaller than BUR. If we extrapolate that figure as a peer it would be a MC of around £245mn or circa 200p - all basic calcs mind!

[dagoberia] 19/9/2023 09:31

Hi Hunter, which figure do you use for your NAV calc? Income was at 183 million, i don't see how you get to NAV of 80p

[johnwig] 19/9/2023 09:13

Oh boy, that was one hell of a read. The financials speak for themselves whichever method of presentation is deployed. They are excellent. I love the way that management is so careful to take into account the interests of the shareholders. A paradigm for so many of our UK companies.

Primarily, however, the 'metric' that interests me most is the quality and clarity of the top management. With my own management experience in mind I have seen very few CEOs of the brilliance of Moloney. He outshines the competition in so many ways. I am very happy to continue the large investments that I and my family's portfolios have in LIT.

[someuwin] 19/9/2023 09:12

Webinar at 11.00

"As part of its commitment to engaging equally with all investors, LCM will also be hosting a webinar for investors at 11 a.m. BST on 19 September. If you would like to attend this presentation, please register using the following link:



The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Investors who already follow LCM on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited."

[hunter154] 19/9/2023 08:45

I was hoping that net assets would be higher than A$183m, i.e 80 p.
That said, recurring earnings of at least 15p (@1.93 conversion) is a base line from which to build.

[someuwin] 19/9/2023 08:05

This has been building for a long time. Now ready for lift off.

[robsy2] 19/9/2023 07:32

My word. What a set of results. This is heading towards 200p.

[someuwin] 19/9/2023 07:11

Fantastic results!

* Total Funds under Management stand at A$0.66bn

* The Company ended the period with A$104.5m of gross cash of which A$83m was attributable to LCM compared with FY22 A$50m of gross cash of which A$29m was attributable to LCM

* Now paying dividends

* Commencing a A$10 million share buyback programme

[boozey] 18/9/2023 19:02

Thanks as always L2B

Big day tomorrow, fingers crossed!

[l2b] 18/9/2023 09:42

IDA annulment hearing to take place from 11-Oct onwards.
That's assuming Tanzania pay the annulment fee by 22-Sep (amateurs!).
And pre this date, IDA to seek to have process discontinued on the grounds that without merit.

Also, IDA have started to identify assets to seize.

cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02712661-6A1168724?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

[boozey] 14/9/2023 17:25

Thanks for the replies both.

[citywolf1] 14/9/2023 17:02

Thanks someuwin.

And as for going forward, I very much doubt Mr Moulds put his hand in his pocket for £5m of shares with the prospect of getting diluted. Similarly for Patrick who is a large shareholder. In any case the business will be hugely cash generative in the coming years and increasingly have access to debt, so makes little sense to issue equity imv

[someuwin] 14/9/2023 16:43

Boozey,

In 2018 shares in issue = 108,687,929

Today shares in issue = 119,200,332

So roughly 10% dilution after 5 years. Remarkably low compared to most companies.

[boozey] 14/9/2023 15:02

citywolf interesting observations, thank you. For comparison purposes on a like for like basis has there been any dilution since 2018?

[citywolf1] 14/9/2023 13:07

Even after the recent rise, a reminder on how compratively low the current valuation is: we traded at 110p in May 2019, when the business had just $30m in cases and no third party funds. The most recent FY'18 had yielded a net profit of $8m.

At FY'23 we will likely have $150m+ in mature cases plus $500m in third party funds. Not to mention we are about to announce record net profits of likely c.$26m+ based on RNSs and basic assumptions.

If you valued the business on the same multiples as 2019 it would bag several times from here. Unlikely it will in this market of course, but worth bearing in mind for the medium term.

Another way to look at it: Estimated net assets on a cost basis are about $125m before any FV write ups. These could easily be in the order of 50-100m. MANO is trading at record lows and is still valued at over 2x book (at fair value) despite having no 3rd party funds...

[boozey] 14/9/2023 12:04

Exceptionally tight spread consistently this morning for this stock - normally the spread is between 3p to 4p, and today between 0.5p to 1p. Trying to make a market ahead of results maybe.

[nigelmoat] 13/9/2023 13:22

Well we know the results are going to be pretty good. I am anticipating stellar.......and on that basis have been adding to my holding over the last couple of weeks. So far looking good but think a re rating will be overly due next Tuesday. Only time will tell.

[greenknight1] 13/9/2023 12:04

Buys going through as sells