Thank you. |
I have access to Citi research. FWIW, they've moved their target price up from £45.50 to £65 albeit with upside risk - ie, they use a very high cost of equity in arriving at that target price whilst conceding that they may be being too pessimistic in that assumption, especially if a Russia/Ukraine peace deal is reached leading to a general lowering on regional tension.
Peel Hunt said yesterday that they will be moving up their estimates and TP (currently £62.00) in the next few days.
Obviously always take what analysts say with a pinch of salt but the commentary I've seen is unanimously very positive. |
hop1, Thanks for that post, where did you see the citi upgrade? |
Thanks for the heads-up on the ADVFN spam filter - I had not noticed that!
Thought the results were very strong earlier in the week and Q4 momentum, especially in Armenia, bodes well for 2025. Analysts pushing their estimates up significantly off the back of these numbers - see Citi today increasing EPS for 2025 and 2026 by +22% and +20% respectively. Amazingly valuation is largely unchanged over the last 3 years in spite of the shares being up 300%+ over that period, trading on under 4x 2025 EPS and at around 1.0x 2025 book value. I appreciate that there must be some discount due to political risk but, even taking that into account, the shares look too cheap given the strength of the business performance. |
I reduced my holding because of the political climate moving away from EU membership and tilting towards Russia but have retained a holding for the reasons in the article above.
ADVFN's spam filters change the https to hxxps so that the link becomes unclickable but if you capitalise one or more letters in https it remains clickable. |
hxxps://www.etoro.com/news-and-analysis/in-depth-analysis/the-weird-bank-with-surging-revenue-bank-of-georgia/ |
Monthly figures on the national bank website show an excellent start to the year for BGEO. |
Results are not easy to compare with broker expectations, as the broker coverage on the BGEO website is quite dated and the companies new joint broker JPM has yet to initiate coverage. Also, the armenia acquisition within the year will not be included in those broker figures whose coverage pre dates it.
Having said that, it may be a positive that we get a wave of updated coverage after these results.
Results are pretty solid, with a slight question over the small decline in georgia nim, caused in some part by carrying excess liquidity.
At this stage 15% growth for the next year look attainable, but what effect will any solution to the ukraine conflict have on the georgian economy, would it be neutral or a big positive. |
I guess the result for BGEO would be similar to TBCG's. |
Last quarter result will be released on the 24 Feb. Fingers x |
Have they given a date for these results yet? |
Nice gain, but it is up to you how you manage your portfolio.
I was a seller of tbcg today and a buyer of bgeo as bgeo is on a lower forward p/e, lower p/ntav and has lagged the recent rise in tbcg.
It will be interesting to see the bgeo results, and what they are going to do with surplus capital. Bigger dividend, another buy back or even an acquisition could lie ahead.
Interesting to hear of the name change, do they see themselves as being a regional banking consolidator? They don't seem to be big enough or have a high enough rating at this point, but I will read the results with interest over what lies ahead. |
FF. I'm sitting on 20% gain in seven months, but with plenty of ups and downs during that period. With this near it's high again the question is, what do we do? Sell for a decent profit or hold for any further price increases bolstered by a good dividend? I'm minded to hold. The figures still seem positive but I've been stung by that approach before! |
Tbcg reported today, bgeo rising in tandem. |
There's your answer - Helikon long with 5% |
I'm trying to find something myself ff. |
I am away on holiday at the moment and out of touch.Does anyone have any insights on reasons for today's big rise.Thanks. |
Can anyone work out how many are left to go, i'm no good at maths.
They said 73m buy back
Number of shares cancelled since they announced the buy back = 424,000
Fag packet maths, how much more to go ? |
Economic fallout is growing from the GD's violent efforts to crush protests against its decision to suspend Georgia's EU membership bid. Tourism sector, a key revenue source, being hit hard by cancelled bookings to the point that businesses are saying they can't pay landlords and other creditors, asking for deferment. Ski season about to start and could be affected too unless govt. |
https://eurasianet.org/georgia-authorities-trying-to-downplay-economic-jitters-amid-protests |
It's desperate stuff from Kaladze to talk about 'reunifying' just after GD has divided the country with a fraudulent election win and suspended the EU membership bid. More broadly, the GD have been in power for 12 years claiming their more 'pragmatic' approach to Russia would result in better relations and Georgia getting its occupied lands back--including Abkhazia. Instead, Russia has kept grabbing more Georgian territory along the so-called occupation line. Georgians would love to have normal relations with Russia, it's just that they have 200+ years experience of the opposite. And that Abkhaz vote is interesting timing --they're showing they're less and less keen at being under Russian control, the passage of time starting to wear away some bad memories when they were still fully part of Georgia |
2000skoot,
I have read that GD may seek to reunify Georgia.
''recently the GD Secretary General, Kakha Kaladze, said that GD’s ‘pragmaticR17; policy towards Russia was ‘preciselyR17; aimed at restoring and preserving Georgia’s territorial sovereignty.''
Also the abkhazia region recently stopped a law allowing russian property ownership.
Any comment?
Thanks |
The only foreign military installations on Georgia's territory are the Russian bases on two chunks of Georgia that it occupies. You see them when you drive east-west. It's to protect themselves against Russia that Georgians have wanted to join EU-NATO. Right now NATO is off the cards and probably rightly so. But the majority want to keep the EU path open, hence the continuing resignations from the government |
No, I'm "channeling" what I see happening. |
prices are almost as high as before the agent law but now there is true political instability. I wonder who is buying now, seems risky. |
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