Learning Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 29/9/2018 12:56

Yes, I know. I’m just asking why revenues would be expected to reduce.

[jeffian] 29/9/2018 12:43

From the RNS announcing the deal -

" Revenues are expected to reduce in the near term; however, management are confident of their ability to materially improve EBIT margin"

[aimingupward2] 29/9/2018 12:29

Why would PF revenues be falling ‘significantly’ anyway, let alone anything like 40%? I don’t understand.

[rampmeister] 29/9/2018 12:23

Well done on your post Megasonic a well reasoned breakdown on what we could expect for the FY.

The big question of course is the estimated PF revenue contribution. Given the bullish comments re PF acquisition in the interims (giving rise to the significantly ahead FY forecast), I think the circa 40% drop in Year on Year PF revenue looks overdone. I do note that you have covered this to some extent in your higher end estimates.

RM

[aimingupward2] 29/9/2018 11:27

As the market cap' has just reached over £1bn I presume that there is likely to be increased interest from institutions who have this as a threshold.

[megasonic] 27/9/2018 16:51

Well, what a great couple of days for LTG holders! I had previously forecasted an share price of 145-155 … oh well, this is one of those times you really don’t mind being wrong. Doesn’t look like the many long term holders are in any mood to sell which is a reflection of confidence in BoD. Full year results in March 2019 should be very interesting. Well done to all who have generated returns to this point.

We certainly don’t want to turn the forum into an echo chamber so its good to read diverse views: both glowing and sceptical. While LTG has performed exceptionally since RTO and as investors we should all take a moment to bask in the glory of finding this gem, it is important to be reminded that there is risk inherent in all business and one should not get carried away in the moment.

Turning attention to the Interim Report, my main takes are:

CONTENT & SERVCICES - looks like revenues are flat here

NETD – great progress on operational integration and sales look strong now and into the future

PEOPLEFLUENT – looks a great acquisition, will significantly increase LTG’s Software & Platforms revenue. It had £88m+ in revenues though its really important to note LTG expect revenues to drop significantly in the near term as PF integrates into the Group. The revenues are forecasted to grow again as FY 2019 progresses. I would estimate that annualised revenues from PF in FY 2018 will therefore be in the region of £50m, meaning that a six month contribution from the division for FY 2018 will be about £25m.

NETD/PF MERGER – the merger of the two platforms under PF will bring in £60m ($80m) of revenue. This new department alone will have higher revenue than LTG achieved as a group for last financial year.

OPERATIONAL SYNERGIES – I find it remarkable how quickly and seamlessly LTG has been able to integrate new acquisitions into the Group. I would expect several hiccups along the way with any one integration yet BoD have managed this aspect very well. This particular factor gives me greater confidence in their abilities and actions.

NEW MARKETS – as UK investors are aware, Brexit casts a lot of uncertainty on the equities market here. Its reassuring to see LTG is growing its market outside the UK for several reasons. One is obviously it is a good hedge against UK uncertainty. Secondly, the US and non-European markets denominate contracts in USD which takes advantage of continually weak GBP. Thirdly, and most importantly, there is much more scope for revenue growth in the US than in the UK and BoD have given shareholders good reason to believe that LTG can gain considerable market share in the US. Note: LTG US revenues for 6 months have doubled from £6.9m (IR June 2017) to £13.9m (IR June 2018).

NEW ACQUISTIONS – I really like this line: “The Board continues to actively pursue acquisition opportunities, particularly in the US …” This statement from Andrew Brode gives me confidence LTG are looking for another acquisition and I would not be surprised if they were to announce a new acquisition by the time of Annual Results in March 2019.

FUN FORECASTING
I’m going to have a bit of fun and try to forecast full year results for FY 2018. My forecasts are based on quick math and depends hugely on how PF’s integration impacts Group revenues. Please feel free to comment. I for one am certainly happy to hear from Bulls and Bears both.

Estimate Revenue EBITDA Op Prof
Lower end 115m 25m 3m
Higher end 145m 33m 4m


GLA all investors !

[gorilla36] 27/9/2018 08:41

Disappoint RNS from ZOO I'm afraid, undone all my good gains from LTG...hey ho !

[panic investor] 26/9/2018 18:55

I sold this to buy them way back - looks like I didn't win or lose when comparing the two - well done to holders here !

[chartsworth] 26/9/2018 16:05

Looks like US have woken up again...

[lasata] 26/9/2018 15:21

Maybe worth watching Zoo ...….who have AGM tomorrow

[mfhmfh] 26/9/2018 12:11

positive article in IC today with buy rating reiterated. GLA.

[fbrj] 26/9/2018 10:33

A rather obscure link to the Berenberg upgrade I was looking for - just shows spread of Goldman Sachs into the US!



Some pretty amazing comments in that Cityam article:
Speaking to City A.M., LTG chief exec Jonathan Satchell said America offered an opportunity that was so large it was “bigger than we have capabilities or bandwidth to deliver on”.

Looking to the future, he said investors could expect “more of the same” as the firm looked to continue expanding, potentially through further acquisitions in America.

O/T - multi I'm travelling for next few days but will respond re copper when I get a chance.

[kazoom] 26/9/2018 09:43

I nearly choked on my coffee when I read (City AM) that the divi was 15p!!

0.15p actually, hey ho.

[drsamwaa] 26/9/2018 09:28

Mshilos...what's your point?

[rosco40] 26/9/2018 09:15

Got a mention in today's print edition of City AM. Online article:

[mshilos] 26/9/2018 08:47

SP about to go MENTAL !! BUY BUY BUY !! ...DYOR.

[multibagger] 26/9/2018 05:22

Good morning fbrj and all :)

Well done on your LTG investment. I hold a decent size position too, but feel quite relaxed about it. Though LTG may seem pricey, I still feel that there is plenty in the tank for those with a long term (minimum 3-5 year horizon)- we have moved up quite a few gears. The geographical shift to most of revenues coming from outside the UK, should negate any Brexit impact (if at all).

I was expecting 140p by the end of the year - but that has been blown out of the water. So we could be around 170p by calendar year end with the usual force majeure caveat. I tend to be conservative in my estimates, but like to be pleasantly surprised !!

O/T:

I would be very interested to know the reason for going into copper in a big way ? Apart from its cyclical nature, industrial uses and a bellwether non-ferrous metal for economic growth...are you looking at it from a supply/demand perspective purely. I am not into commodities at this time, but always happy to learn. I did benefit from the supercycle in metals before the 2008 crash after reading a book by Jim Rogers.

Good luck all !

[fbrj] 25/9/2018 20:36

These results must have exceeded all our expectations. My standout was the huge increase in margins - several percentage points, when usually a point here or there would be considered quite an achievement.

I mentioned upthread that LTG is my largest holding (and indeed more so today!). I've been a huge Brode fan since 2013 through my investment in RWS - and through that connection I came across LTG. Early purchases were below 40p and I continued buying, as results were announced (often selling down RWS in the process) until at one stage I had 300,000 shares. As the share price crossed 100p I was anxious about the huge weighting that LTG represented for me. I sold down a third and bought RWS, which at the time had fallen to around 350-375p. Although RWS has done well since - I would have done better sitting tight (how often have we all said that in hindsight!).

I'm now facing the same dilemma as before - an overweight (and therefore exposed) position in a successful business that is appreciated by the market. I very nearly trimmed my position (15-20%?) before the results (probably the more sensible choice) but in hindsight obviously pleased I dithered! My RWS holding (which was my 2nd largest) has recently (and reluctantly) gone - for once head over heart - at between 485-495p (I know, I know - now over 500p!!) into something completely different - Copper.

Apart from the actual interims info/outlook - what else is persuading me to keep 100% of my LTG holding? Today's broker upgrades, the forthcoming(?) comment/recommendation from Berenberg - who I rate very highly - the involvement of Goldman Sachs as joint broker and ......the sector that LTG is focussed on - an early days RWS type niche.

Finally, I also had a look at GRC. Rather impulsively, I bought £10k in late May this year. I regretted this almost immediately and was out almost 2 weeks later - thankfully ahead - but even for me the ratings were racy....rather like LTG today!

Many will be sitting on excellent gains here. Good luck with your decisions/dilemmas.....we also have to grapple with the unknown market reaction to the (unknown) Brexit outcome!

[microscope] 25/9/2018 16:21

When I said it could reach a billion valuation by FY results... I meant by today... Obviously... even if for now possibly (who knows!) fleetingly, congrats on making it to the Billion club, LTG.

Closing mid of 150, didn't quite hang on to it into the close - for now

[phillis] 25/9/2018 15:57

yes micro
looks v expensive in these early days

[microscope] 25/9/2018 15:54

Good work multi. GRC certainly not a tip Phillis, maybe one i think to keep an eye on to see how things unfold.

I do it myself sometimes but it's all too easy to see eps or p/e as the key factors in a share price. Management, cash, projected growth, sector, niche - etc, etc - are all factors too.

[thefartingcommie] 25/9/2018 15:51

150 trades

looking good.

,..incidentally,did any of you guys see that largish trade stamped at 170 this morning

...what was that all about?

[phillis] 25/9/2018 15:51

Multi
The real EBIT was £948k
It is no use pretending otherwise even if the differences are non cash items
The result for the same period last year was £(1898) giving a year on year swing of some £2.8m on an increased turnover of some £12.5m

[multibagger] 25/9/2018 15:07

My post 662 from 16 Jul 2018 re results below ....reasonably accurate....though EBIT is better than what I expected...not complaining :)


multibagger
16 Jul '18 - 06:27 - 662 of 766 Edit
0   1  0
Good morning !

Trading update for H1 2018 due anytime now (could be even today)....we have had about 5 weeks of PeopleFluent revenue + hopefully growth in the business which I am conservatively estimating at 30%. Revenues should be much higher in H2 2018 as the acquisition would be much better bedded in and we will have the full H2 effect.

I am hoping for H1 2018 of atleast £33.23m revenues with about £7.76m EBIT...anything over that would be an absolute bonus...and a push to a share price of £1.20+ would be on the cards...

Good luck all !

[phillis] 25/9/2018 14:36

tx for the GRC tip Micro

surely these results include a full result from Net Dimensions?
where is the profit?
disappeared in goodwill write off