Kefi Gold And Copper Share Discussion Threads

[topicel] 15/7/2020 08:49

There we are, thanks Rob.

We won't mention the additional shares issued nor the percentages of the 'H' project and even TK owned given away during said three-plus years. ;)

It is a mere trifle.

Topicel

[robjm66] 15/7/2020 08:40

5.795 pence closing price new money April 28 2017.

[topicel] 15/7/2020 08:36

Rio - when it was consolidated it was 5p something!

No, seriously, 5.6p or so I think. I know as that was the second to last time I bought around that price on big expectations. Last £10k was the following Sept or so when we launched a bond...

Oh what fun we all had looking for said provider in Switzerland etc. And remember the Lycopodium 'start up' that Unionhall spotted were handling it and had never done anything like it before? Then were replaced six months later for another bunch who no doubt got nicely paid.

We have been led down some long and winding roads. Cue a lyric that isn't 'the times they are a changin''...? ;)

Topicel

[topicel] 15/7/2020 08:31

Lol, in this case the pedantry was not mine mon ami, I simply pointed out someone opined 5p was his expected/predicted price at opening of this mirage of a mine at TK and whether that was the extent of their ambitions.

I was met by the usual inability to answer the question with, as you say, pedantry and all manner of clever play on words, to avoid admitting something had been a prediction.

Definitely guilty of sticking to the facts and using my (admittedly failed) legal training. Anyway, who rattled your cage, get over it ;) You'll only rouse folk :(

5p by funding news. 1.7p today. I don't predict though, only opine - now that is being childishly pedantic!

Topicel

PS - did I spot some sly posts suggesting NPV is not really a very good indicator of the future value here? Or anywhere? Are we being micro-managed again on share price expectations? Maybe 5p on opening is better, especially as we don't have any idea as so often in these lull periods wtf is going on until the can gets kicked again...now, where's my mask.

PPS - which reminds me, saw this in the States on a shop door - 'No mask, don't ask!' Given the government love a pithy slogan that should be taken up to get the point (nearly miss-typed the more appropriate 'pint' there!) across :)

[riotinted_specs] 15/7/2020 08:30

Would somebody please tell me the highest ever KEFI share price in new money. Thank you very much

[gdavies2] 15/7/2020 01:35

I can’t believe that Topicel had the cheek to call someone else a pedant! ;)

[topicel] 14/7/2020 22:27

Sadly I'd go further and refer back to a similar exercise where I monitored a fair few (less than 70 though) juniors across AIM generally and not one ever exceeded its earliest peak share price

Now in our case some might argue we can still do it. I know a couple for sure, but it is a lightening strike moment if it happens.

Luckily most would just settle for the high since consolidation which, ironically, is circa 5p...

Now if you keep peddling on this wheel you might get lucky and fall off...

Topicel

[lurker5] 14/7/2020 21:06

goatherd - you are right. NPV's are not only not very good predictions of a share price, they are not even a logical price for a investor to pay, and are in any case an elastic measure - dependent on a discount rate which is in the eye of lender and not of an investor A 8% NPV is double that at 12%. Brokers analysts can chose and use it as a lazy way to puff a share for the sake of their company clients. I could quote a whole list of reasons why it is illogical to pay an NPV, but would be too long. In the
early 2011's I monitored over 70 junior miners, and not a single obe ever reached more than 1/3rd-1/2 of the NPV touted by analysts. Will explain more if asked.

[the charmer] 14/7/2020 19:57

Estones.

Tut tut.

That's not nice. :-(

I will put it down to a stressful day. :-)

[estseon] 14/7/2020 19:16

drip drip drip What answer do you want, charmer? I'm sure that you could work it out yourself if you could be ar$ed to do so.

[mister md] 14/7/2020 18:30

-- TKGM is already in discussions with a range of Ethiopian investors and a number of international Specialist Mining Financiers, introduced by its shareholders KEFI and the Ethiopian Government, to ensure the required Project equity is secured well in advance of the closure of the full financing package in October 2020.


'well in advance of...'

[goatherd] 14/7/2020 18:17

Estseon,

Thanks very much for that. I did not really think you would have it - but it was worth a try!

The trouble with NPV, is, of course, it seems to have very little share price predictive capability. But, I suppose, it is not worth the effort as, provided we get the funding, the upside is very substantial - and I believe we will get get the funding; and anyway I am not selling!

[the charmer] 14/7/2020 18:12

It is like a water torture technique until one gets the answer that one wants...drip! drip! drip!

[estseon] 14/7/2020 17:15

postscript

To put the free cash into some kind of perspective, the amount produced over the first 12 months' production may exceed the senior debt borrowed (at a gold price of $1800). That is easily seen because AISCs are about $800/oz giving a profit before tax and interest of $1,000/oz and production of about 140,000 ozs.

[estseon] 14/7/2020 17:05

Hi Goatherd,


I'm afraid not because I have no more data than have been disclosed in the releases and because the market seems to be principally interested in NPV.

The free cash at $1800 for the opencast mine + PEA (after PEA capex) is approximately $780m.

Defining capital is problematic because Kefi inherited most of the exploration and paid in shares to acquire the project. Kefi has also injected a substantial amount of money into TKGM, some of it written off in the accounts.

I also do not think that the project can be looked at in isolation because it is a door into the area and the satellites can add considerably to the free cash, which is only enabled by the capex for the opencast mine.

The company has previously said that the capex required for Guji-Komto is very moderate - probably for the road access - and I noted that the budget in previous years had been increased for the tailings dams. They might be "ready to go" with the additional production from at least Guji-Komto but they have said nothing on this except that they reckon on producing about another 35k ozs/yr more cheaply and that the ore is highly oxidised so needs only crushing and heap-leaching to extract the metal.

Kefi cannot talk about the satellites much until full funding is secured and, with it, the grant of the exploration licences. It is after that that it could be interesting. This is all guesswork.

[mister md] 14/7/2020 17:05

1807 USD, near all-time highs

[goatherd] 14/7/2020 16:14

Estseon,

In your forward looking spreadsheets have you, by any chance, worked out any performance statistics. If so, I would love to know your estimates of ROCE after production has started. Please, pretty please.

[scrappycat] 14/7/2020 15:22

Topicel,

I did not predict anything, I opined. Also, I quoted a well known saying, and stated that it was something I had learnt from my experience of life. If you cannot understand the difference, see below:

an opinion - a judgement or belief based on grounds short of proof, provisional conviction, view held as probable.

to predict - to foretell or to prophesy

Nuff said as far as I am concerned, but, no doubt, you will want the last word. The board is surely bored to death with your unending diatribes and my responses - again, an opinion, not a prediction.

[1deedee] 14/7/2020 14:58

Nice little rise coming I thought we lost all of gain but slowly creeping back up

[cybaajak] 14/7/2020 14:25

post 4842 appears to be written by someone more deluded than the normal garbage spoken from Trumps mouth.

filtered. Forever. Thats a certainty.

[rich1e] 14/7/2020 12:42

Crashing prior to the covid problem? It dropped what 10% the same as it had done in February, before rising 20%. Id tried to highlight a 6-month trend, not a couple of weeks, which is id left out the rise from 1.0p to 1.7p.